Is this rainy pattern going to break?

I'm trying to get some information out to (especially to the farmers) about what we are seeing through the rest of September. This rainy weather is creating concern for the fall crops that have looked so good with timely rains and cooler than normal weather. While the weather has been cooperative, some things need to change, or the good-looking crops could start suffering. 

Bottom line - It's going to be a struggle finding long stretches of dry weather through the remainder of this month. It appears that through the remainder of September, low pressure is favored over the western US, and those systems will keep the central Plains in the running for more rounds of rain/storms.

I'm showing the raw data here, and then I'll wrap it up with the rainfall (compared to average) maps right after that. 

Going into September (week two): Another upper low will make its way into the Rockies, which will bring more unsettled weather to the region. Remember, the areas that are favored for rainy/stormy weather are to the right of the big "L" on the maps below. That's where air rises and tends to lead to precipitation.

September (week three): It's very possible a system from the Pacific Northwest will cut across the Rockies and Plains states yet again increasing the odds for more rain/storms.

End of September: It may be weaker, but low pressure continues to show potential near and just west of Kansas. That could keep at least scattered rain/thunder nearby for late in the month.

In summary, there's reason to believe that the remainder of this month could be difficult to squeeze in much more than 5-7 days of dry weather at a time. I know that's concerning where the fall harvest is about to get started, and then some are concerned about getting next years wheat crop planted. This could be one of those years where everything is going to drag out longer than anyone wants to. Areas that need more rain, this is good news. 

I will say that peeking into early October, high pressure may return to the Plains and the Rockies, which would lead to drier weather. However, it may also turn cooler than average, which would take longer to dry things out if we still have a bunch of muddy fields and standing water. Stay tuned.

Some strange weather into September

September 1st marks the start of meteorological fall and what an introduction to the season. Kansas and many surrounding areas are feeling exceptionally cool compared to average. August proved to be a wet month for much of the state and September may be picking up with that theme as well.

I did want to give a quick update on La Nina and El Nino status. If you've read the blog before, you know we discuss it from time to time because it influences the longer-term temperature and rainfall patterns. Right now, we are not in either one (neutral), but when you look at the maps below, the area monitored is shows small amounts of colder water creeping in. Colder water over an extended period is classified as "La Nina", while warmer is "El Nino". It would appear unlikely that a La Nina is going to show up - we will likely remain "neutral" into winter and spring of 2026.

A look at October:

November:

January:

It's something we'll have to weigh when considering the winter forecast. More about that in a later post. 

September preview:

There's not much summer left in the weeks ahead. I suspect there's a warmer stretch of weather coming up in mid-late September, but not really anything out of the ordinary (most likely more 80s than anything else).

September Temperatures (compared to average):

September Rainfall (compared to average):

I know September is a busy time for farmers to get next year's wheat crop planted. It may be tricky trying to get into the field as the rain may be off and on from week to week. However, there is a chance in mid-late September that some drier days will return. 

Here's the 2nd week of September:

And the 3rd week:

Thanks for reading! Hope to see some of you at the state fair.

August could be an extension of more cool

Humidity aside, anybody else think this summer has been nice? Of course, everyone has a different opinion on what "nice" is for summer, but maybe I'm just thinking about how hot and dry the past several summers have been. The fact that we've been getting timely rains and 100° temperatures have been in check makes me think we've been rewarded for going through drought for the past 4 years. 

Here's the latest 100° count:

I find it quite interesting that even Dallas (of all places) has only had one day with a high temperature hitting 100°. 

When you look at the map below, this is showing us temperatures overall and comparing it to "average". What you'll see is that it hasn't necessarily been cooler than average, but rather just a typical July. 

Again, escaping a long term period of 100s probably leads us to thinking it's been cool, but the stats suggest otherwise. 

On the rainfall side of things, here's a look back at the past 30 days (July 1-30).

 

August Outlook:

The short answer is more of what we've come to expect this summer. Brief periods of hotter than average temperatures and then followed by nice cool downs. The favored spot for the "heat dome" will focused back to the Southwest across New Mexico and Arizona (where it typically sets up this time of year), but it should remain fairly weak.

Meanwhile, a series of small scale systems will come off the higher terrain of Colorado and bring episodes of storms and it already looks like another strong front will arrive in the first 10 days of the new month.

And temperatures look cooler overall:

What do August averages look like? It can be one of our wetter months out of the year and the average highs beginning dropping. You'll see by month's end, our average drops back to the 80s. Fall is fast approaching, but there's still plenty of summer warmth left. 

Thanks for reading!