What would it take?

We hear about the drought almost every day and even if your livelihood isn't directly affected by the lack of rain, we will somehow pay the price through higher food costs, water bills, etc.

How much rain would it take to end the drought? The numbers are incredible, but consider for a moment, we've been dealing with some classification of drought in our area since October of 2010. If you calculate the rainfall deficit from 2011 and so far in 2012, you find some very big numbers. Salina would need almost 20 inches of rain to completely wipe out the drought, Dodge City needs almost 15 inches of moisture, with Wichita needing just over 10 inches of rain. The only way to get this kind of rainfall is with some kind of tropical system, or a stalled storm system that hangs around for several consecutive days. You won't likely see that any time soon, so the only thing we can hope for is a continuation of smaller rains along the way. I expect the drought will ease through the fall, but there will be some kind of drought classification for Kansas into the spring months. Maybe then, with an El Nino influence on the weather pattern, we will be in a better situation than we are now.

Drought -- the story continues

It has been a major topic of discussion recently and for good reason. Much of the country is experiencing drought, and conditions are deteriorating fast with such a lack of moisture. I think the conditions are magnified this year in Kansas because we had so much hot and dry weather in 2011 that having another unusually dry summer is just discouraging. I'm posting a drought comparison from last year at the end of July to this year. It is striking to see how much of the United States is covered in orange and red, indicating severe to extreme drought conditions. It is very common this time of year to see thunderstorms develop on the higher terrain of Colorado and Nebraska, and then roll southeast through Kansas. We just haven't had that at all this summer.

I know we haven't seen the last of the 100 degree temperatures, but I definitely think the lengthy stretches (10-12 days in a row) are coming to a close. I don't think August is going to bring record rains, but I think there is some reason to hope we'll get more moisture in August than what we had in July. We are seeing some signs of a change already, but August will have some hot days to be sure. What we hope will be even better news is that if the El Nino phenomenon sets up for the winter months, that should lead to some possible wetter days into the winter months. I'm not making a prediction for winter yet, but if El Nino does come back, we should end up with better chances for moisture. Stay tuned.

Heat & Colorado Fires

Weather pattern heading toward the weekend

The hot weather recently is serving as an unnecessary reminder of the 2011 scorching summer that we dealt with here in Kansas. The weather pattern here in Kansas isn't that unusual for the end of June or early July. As a meteorologist, when we see this type of pattern where high pressure locks in over the central US, we know it's going to be hot. And because the air sinks under high pressure, you essentially eliminate the chance for rainfall. This type of pattern is normally very stubborn and it's going to take a healthy storm system to knock it down and allow rain and storms to head back toward Kansas. Even if we knock the big "H" down, it doesn't necessarily mean a dramatic cool down is going to follow. It is unlikely that we will have the number of 100 degree days we had in 2011, but if trends continue, we're still going to have a lot of them. In the absence of La Nina (unusual cool water near the equator in the Pacific), the dome of heat/high pressure should be a little easier to suppress, but it will be interesting to see how July and August shape up. Still going to have some hot days, but hopefully not a lengthy stretch of 100s.

Colorado is dealing with wildfire trouble because of the same dome of heat that is locked over Kansas. The winds are strong, there isn't much rainfall, and unfortunately, there isn't much change for the area. Millie and I hiked in Waldo Canyon during the 2nd week of June, so it is a little crazy now to think we were just there and now it is burning up. You get a wonderful view of Pike's Peak from the hike in Waldo Canyon, but now, it would be so covered in smoke, you wouldn't likely see anything.What a tough job for firefighters to fight those huge flames when the temperatures are so dang hot.

Waldo Canyon fire spreads

Map of current fires in Colorado