Snow returns to Colorado

A sign that times are changing across the United States as snow is now covering the mountains over Telluride in Colorado. It's estimated that the snow is anywhere from 5-8 inches deep in most areas toward the top of the mountains, and although they may not get much snow in the next 4-7 days, a pattern change is about to take place. The strong winds in the upper atmosphere will be diving south again toward the end of the first week of October, so colder air will be coming back south at that time too. One of our computer models shows the return of colder air by Thursday/Friday October 4/5. The timing could change over the next seveal days, but things will start getting interesting by the first weekend in October.

Much of Kansas is still dealing with drought, and if this pattern change holds up, we should have a decent chance to get more moisture in the central US. Stay tuned for sure.

Another Millie & Changes

The fair just finished up and so many of you came by to pet Millie and asked questions about her. I think the 3 most asked questions include:
1. How old is Millie
2. What breed of dog is she
3. How did Millie become so popular


Hopefully you had a chance to pick up an pawtograph of her. She is tired after all of the attention, but assuming no big changes take place between now and the next fair, I'm sure she'll be back. I know there are other dogs out there that go by "Millie", but was surprised to see that Barbra and George H. W. Bush had a Millie when they lived in the White House. It was an English springer spaniel that was named after one of their long time friends. Millie lived to be 12 years old and died after developing pneumonia. President Bush even referenced his dog in one of his many speeches during his reelection campaign. According to a web search, a dog park in Houston, Texas is named after Millie.

Now on to the weather. This is my favorite time of the year as we are studying the changes taking place in the atmosphere and watching the transition from a very hot summer into the colder months. Many people came by the KWCH booth asking what kind of winter we are expecting. The details of the winter are unclear at this point, but we can find some guidance in studying the influence of El Nino on the pattern this winter. I would expect this will probably lead to a wetter winter, but will it be white or just wet? If you look at the forecast map from one of our computer models, you can already see some of the colder air surging south out of Canada (Sunday, Sep. 23 at 7 p.m.) This isn't that uncommon as we head deeper into September, and cold fronts that move through over the next 30 days will gradually get stronger. It is amazing to me how we go from 100s one day to 70s & 80s almost in a matter of a few days. It's like Mother Nature just flips a switch and changes begin. One thing is fairly certain. Our weather pattern through the end of the month is not likely to yield much rainfall for this area. This cool, dry Canadian air doesn't normally bring much precipitation to our area, so the drought will continue even longer and we probably won't have a chance to break it until spring of 2013.

What would it take?

We hear about the drought almost every day and even if your livelihood isn't directly affected by the lack of rain, we will somehow pay the price through higher food costs, water bills, etc.

How much rain would it take to end the drought? The numbers are incredible, but consider for a moment, we've been dealing with some classification of drought in our area since October of 2010. If you calculate the rainfall deficit from 2011 and so far in 2012, you find some very big numbers. Salina would need almost 20 inches of rain to completely wipe out the drought, Dodge City needs almost 15 inches of moisture, with Wichita needing just over 10 inches of rain. The only way to get this kind of rainfall is with some kind of tropical system, or a stalled storm system that hangs around for several consecutive days. You won't likely see that any time soon, so the only thing we can hope for is a continuation of smaller rains along the way. I expect the drought will ease through the fall, but there will be some kind of drought classification for Kansas into the spring months. Maybe then, with an El Nino influence on the weather pattern, we will be in a better situation than we are now.