Pressure & the Northeast Storm

We reference it in every weathercast we do, but barometric pressure is sometimes a hard thing to understand. The pressure reading really refers to the weight of the atmosphere above us, and we measure it with a barometer to see if it's going up or down. When a storm is approaching, the pressure goes down (hence, "low" pressure). Just because the pressure goes down, it doesn't necessarily mean rain or snow will soon follow, but it does give you an idea that something could be changing soon. Higher pressure is generally associated with calm weather because the air is sinking and exerting more force down toward the ground.

Watching the fluctuation in pressure with Sandy has been interesting, and once it comes on shore, it will have one of the lowest pressure readings and cause significant flooding and storm surge. Consider for a moment that most people sensitive to changes in the weather will notice the pressure when it drops to around 29.70". Sandy, even as a category 1 hurricane, has had pressure readings down around 28.00", but because it is merging with another system over the US, the pressure will likely drop to around 27.90 before it begins coming back up (or the storm starts weakening)

It's a big deal because so many people will be hit by the storm and power outages will be widespread. It could be several days before things get back to normal, even after the storm is long gone.

Snow returns to Colorado

A sign that times are changing across the United States as snow is now covering the mountains over Telluride in Colorado. It's estimated that the snow is anywhere from 5-8 inches deep in most areas toward the top of the mountains, and although they may not get much snow in the next 4-7 days, a pattern change is about to take place. The strong winds in the upper atmosphere will be diving south again toward the end of the first week of October, so colder air will be coming back south at that time too. One of our computer models shows the return of colder air by Thursday/Friday October 4/5. The timing could change over the next seveal days, but things will start getting interesting by the first weekend in October.

Much of Kansas is still dealing with drought, and if this pattern change holds up, we should have a decent chance to get more moisture in the central US. Stay tuned for sure.

Another Millie & Changes

The fair just finished up and so many of you came by to pet Millie and asked questions about her. I think the 3 most asked questions include:
1. How old is Millie
2. What breed of dog is she
3. How did Millie become so popular


Hopefully you had a chance to pick up an pawtograph of her. She is tired after all of the attention, but assuming no big changes take place between now and the next fair, I'm sure she'll be back. I know there are other dogs out there that go by "Millie", but was surprised to see that Barbra and George H. W. Bush had a Millie when they lived in the White House. It was an English springer spaniel that was named after one of their long time friends. Millie lived to be 12 years old and died after developing pneumonia. President Bush even referenced his dog in one of his many speeches during his reelection campaign. According to a web search, a dog park in Houston, Texas is named after Millie.

Now on to the weather. This is my favorite time of the year as we are studying the changes taking place in the atmosphere and watching the transition from a very hot summer into the colder months. Many people came by the KWCH booth asking what kind of winter we are expecting. The details of the winter are unclear at this point, but we can find some guidance in studying the influence of El Nino on the pattern this winter. I would expect this will probably lead to a wetter winter, but will it be white or just wet? If you look at the forecast map from one of our computer models, you can already see some of the colder air surging south out of Canada (Sunday, Sep. 23 at 7 p.m.) This isn't that uncommon as we head deeper into September, and cold fronts that move through over the next 30 days will gradually get stronger. It is amazing to me how we go from 100s one day to 70s & 80s almost in a matter of a few days. It's like Mother Nature just flips a switch and changes begin. One thing is fairly certain. Our weather pattern through the end of the month is not likely to yield much rainfall for this area. This cool, dry Canadian air doesn't normally bring much precipitation to our area, so the drought will continue even longer and we probably won't have a chance to break it until spring of 2013.