Hot week ahead - a few rounds of storms

Welcome to Monday everyone. We are officially just over one week into summer and we've had quite a few hot days already, but nothing that is really out of the ordinary. Normal highs are in the low 90s, and they will jump up to about 93 from mid July to the end of the month. At the end of July, our normal high temperatures will start coming back down (albeit slowly and still in the 90s)

satellite image of the fires - California (click to make image larger)

This week, the weather pattern will be characterized by a HUGE high pressure across the western US. Wildfire season is well underway and some of the fires are large enough to be seen from space. The satellite image above was captured on June 20th of the Lake Fire in San Bernardino. The heat across the west will be relentless and the elements will continue to challenge the firefighters.

I don't think we will see that many storms this week in Kansas. The storm track is coming down over our area, which will likely keep a major heat wave from forming in our area. But the higher chances for rain will be just east of us. Storms that form in the northern Plains will slide to the southeast and just clip areas east of the Flint Hills. Some of the best storm chances we may have in the next 5-7 days will be Thursday evening-Friday. We could very well have another front coming through at that time, which will help get a round of storms going that will slide southeast. The wheat harvest has ended for some farmers in south central and eastern Kansas, but it's still going for many in the west.

There are many areas that have already hit the century mark this summer. We will be counting the days as we head into July. Still plenty of opportunities to get that hot!

Northern lights put on a show - changing weather pattern happening now

Traverse City, MI

The Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) have put on quite a show the last few nights for much of the northern United States. Highly charged particles from the sun get caught in the earth's magnetic poles and interact with elements in the atmosphere. It's rare to see the northern lights as far south as Kansas, but sometimes the most intense solar storms can lead to a glimpse of the aurora. You'll know it when you see it because the views are quite stunning. 

courtesy Rachel Chazin - St Cloud, MN

We are definitely experiencing some hot weather this week in Kansas, but many areas have yet to hit 100 degrees. There's no doubt we will have plenty of chances to get that hot with July and August still to come. In fact, on average we see most of our 100 degree days in August. 

The weather pattern is changing as I type up this blog. We are going to see the temperatures cool down some heading into the weekend with chances for a little bit of rain. Forecast models show the showers and storms Thursday night into Friday will be scattered with the heaviest rainfall likely staying east of the Flint Hills. The big high pressure system that has been parked over Kansas is breaking down, and our winds in the upper atmosphere will shifting to the northwest. That will help drive a front across the area and allow temperatures to drop into the 80s for the start of the weekend.

Severe storms in the Midwest - changes coming to Kansas weather

courtesy Brandon Sullivan

courtesy Johnny Kelly - from Michigan

A wide swath of damage was reported last night across the upper Midwest from severe storms and some tornadoes. Strong winds flattened some of the corn in Iowa and into Illinois. Tornadoes in Michigan caused damage in Kalamazoo county. Summertime severe weather shifts to the north, and covers the Dakotas and areas up around the Great Lakes. The upper level winds begin to weaken across Kansas, so our severe threat does diminish some heading into July and August. It doesn't eliminate the severe chance, but it's not as likely as it is during the spring months. 

The weather pattern will change toward the end of the week. High pressure will setup once again west of the Rockies and the storm track will be coming down right over Kansas. This is going to allow some cooler air from the north to spread back across the Plains for Friday and the weekend. We may get a little bit of rain Thursday night or early Friday, but at least for Kansas, it's not that likely for widespread rainfall.