Northwest heat wave coming to Kansas?

The record heat wave in the Northwest is bad and records have been falling all over the place. It wasn't a surprise considering the setup with a huge high pressure that pushed farther north. This "heat dome" has been hanging out farther south for a good part of June. One of the things that I found remarkable is that Portland's high of 115° beats the all-time record from Amarillo, TX of all places.

As the winds come from the ocean to the coast, it will start bringing temperatures down. It's not the typical northwest cool 70s and 80s, but at least the pressure cooker conditions ease up a bit for so many that don't have AC. It will still be an oven for locations away from the coast.

Meanwhile, east of the Rockies, we have a slow moving low pressure that's creating clouds and giving us some really pleasant late June weather. There is more rain to fall across the central and southern Plains and areas into the upper Midwest. Just take a look at the models for Tuesday:

And Wednesday:

The rainy pattern comes to an end on Thursday as the front slides south - by Thursday night and Friday, almost all of Kansas will have drier weather.

First 10 days in July shouldn't be too bad: Average high temperatures go to low 90s, and I think we will be close to that for much of the Plains. You would see much more red on the map below if we were headed for a prolonged period of 100s, but that setup isn't coming our way.

We could be looking at a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico coming up next week. It's a week away, but conditions are looking favorable for something to develop south of us. It's too early to know if that system will have an indirect impact on Kansas, but Elsa is the next named storm on the list.

Severe weather chances return & look who gets the major heat next

We are coasting into our final weekend of June and the first weekend of summer. And in typical Kansas fashion, it may not feel like the season around here thanks to some significant changes in the upper level winds. 

Severe weather threats setting up for Thursday night:

We are still going to be ahead of a front heading into the night and storms will be coming off the High Plains of Colorado and developing into western Kansas. The movement with storms will be east and I'm expecting areas north of I-70 to have a strong likelihood of getting some rain. I know harvest isn't over and there will be mixed opinions about the rain, but in summer and with the recent dry spell, we better take it when we can. The setup isn't that favorable for widespread large hail (that's the good news), but storms will have a tendency to produce strong wind gusts up to 60 or 70 mph and torrential rains. 

Severe weather potential Friday evening:

A cold front will still be cutting Kansas in half and because the humidity remains so high, we are looking at a favorable setup for more heavy rains and wind gusts that may exceed 60 mph in spots. If we end up with watches and warnings Friday evening, that's more than likely what the concern will be. This is also our best chance of rain on a statewide scale. Once we pass 10 or 11 pm Friday, biggest threats will be torrential rainfall, especially in southern Kansas and Oklahoma. 

Rainfall forecast: 

Latest model data shows Missouri getting big time rains and even parts of northeast Kansas. Much of the state has a chance at some 1" rainfall, but there will be some isolated pockets of maybe close to 2" before it's all over. Remember, this is a combination of several rounds of storms that should be winding down by Saturday afternoon for Kansas. I know June has been really dry, so please be patient. This is likely going to force some wheat farmers from the field for a couple of days. However, it will be nice for the milo and corn.

Weekend humidity drops!

What made the weather so enjoyable back at the beginning of the week was the drier air. Similar conditions return for the Plains Friday night and throughout much of the weekend. Dew point temperatures drop to the 50s, and in Kansas in late June, that's sometimes hard to come by. 

Major heat for the West:

 Next week will be a very tough week for those in the Pacific Northwest. A large, upper level high will setup in that area, leading to excessive heat and potential record highs. Just look at the extended forecast for Boise, ID. The all time record high is 111° - it could be tied soon. 

More cool coming - rain still spotty

June has been a hot month, but if the month ended today, it wouldn't be the temperature records that we'd be highlighting. Instead, it would be the lack of rain on a widespread scale. First, the map of rainfall compared to normal. Only the few pixels of green indicate where the rain was above normal (and there aren't very many). There's a small area in eastern Kansas and one area in the far west. 

 

Latest drought map: 

We are not seeing a major expansion of drought yet, but if we don't get an inch or two of rain in the next 10-14 days, we will begin to see quite a few areas going back to "abnormally dry", especially considering the last few weeks of heat. 

 

June Rainfall:

When looking at the numbers, you'll see that Salina, Dodge City, and Goodland are all on track for a top 10 driest June.

Late week storm chances:

Potential of rain will increase Thursday night and Friday. I know wheat farmers are hurrying, trying to get it all cut before rain impacts the quality. Initially, storms will be fairly scattered (Thu. night), but chances may increase a bit Friday for southern Kansas with the cold front interacting with VERY high humidity. When all is said and done, it looks like northern Kansas could get up to .50" with areas farther south closer to 1". 

It appears that we are heading for a nice finish to June (relative to how the first half of the month went). One of the things that is going to happen is the upper high pressure system (the heat "dome") is expected to retreat westward. This will place the hottest weather for the end of June west of the Rockies. And we could end up with a bunch of 80 days in Kansas for the final weekend of the month. 

 

Early look toward the 4th of July:

Models suggest July may be off to a cooler than normal start. This doesn't mean there couldn't be a day or two where things are hot and humid, but when you average everything out, it would appear that we are NOT heading into a major heat wave anytime soon. And the 4th of July has a chance of being somewhat tolerable with respect to temperatures.  

Have a great day.