June outlook - not looking too bad

With respect to rainfall, what an amazing finish to the month of May. We're going to need much more rain to keep our fall crops on track and keep the landscape green, but I think we are all feeling a bit better than where we were in mid-May. 

Here's the map showing total May rainfall:

The highest totals came from southwest, south central, and eastern Kansas with many locations over 3 and 4 inches. That may sound like a surplus, but in reality, it's basically "average" for the month. 

June thoughts:

As June gets underway, what stands out to me is that we are NOT seeing a dominating heat ridge for the central Plains. I think that's our fear is that a big summer high pressure arrives, and the rain gets turned off for most of the month. I don't see that happening in the month ahead. There will be some hot days, and some of the driest weather may come in mid-late June, but we could have a pretty decent month with some timely rains and tolerable temperatures. 

Biggest rains in June could be weighted toward the beginning of the month. The upper level pattern continues to bring weak systems in from the West that could set off rounds of storms.

As mid-June comes into view, there's a possibility that some much warmer and drier weather may sneak in for several days. Again, looking at the map below doesn't mean "no rain", but a trend toward drier setups for the 10 day period.

As it stands now, late June also shows signs of near or drier than average.

Here's what we see on the maps for temperatures in June:

First half looks really nice - near or slightly cooler than normal (average highs are mostly low to mid 80s)

Second half of the month looks warmer than average for the Plains and Rockies - but still not seeing a major heat wave from this (heat wave being 95-100+ for several days at a time):

As a reminder, here's a breakdown of June "averages" for Kansas. It does happen to be one of our wetter months of the year, with western Kansas averaging 3-4" for the entire month, with central and eastern Kansas more along the lines of 4-5".

Thanks for reading!

May outlook and more peeks at summer

April was a reminder that it CAN rain in Kansas and we've seen some places get tremendous amounts. The Easter weekend rain proved to be generous in several spots, and then just after Easter, western Kansas was on the receiving end of some 2-4 inch amounts (but it was spotty). It is still very much a touchy subject considering the ongoing drought and places that routinely get missed. 

What's been really frustrating is just how much rain ended up in Oklahoma for the month of April. It turns out to be the wettest April in OKC, and 2nd wettest for Tulsa. Almost half of the state had in excess of 7-8 inches, so drought won't be a big problem there moving forward. 

Our prediction for April was pretty good - thinking Kansas would have average moisture. The 4 major reporting stations that we track on a regular basis were near normal on precipitation. Yet we are still so far behind. Consider these stats:

Since 2023 (yes, the last 2.5 years), Wichita and Salina rainfall deficits remain WELL below normal. That's why we have so many reservoirs, creeks, and lake levels down.

May outlook:

More than one set of data suggest the month could be slightly wetter than average, mainly for western Kansas. Let's approach this with caution. This may be weighted on heavy rain at the beginning of the month, followed by mid-month dryness, and then late May rain.

The official rainfall outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has the bullseye just south of Kansas, but is similar to the set of data I'm showing you above. Some of you will be optimistic; others will be realists. And then some of you will "believe it when you see it".

It looks like the steady stream of low pressure systems off the West coast continues for now. This may slow down or stop in mid-May. However, late May is showing signs of more rain too. 

And temperatures look near or cooler than normal for the month as a whole. This might be helpful for the maturing wheat crop (based on recent talk with area farmers).

Summer thinking:

What about the summer months ahead? I saw one forecast that was released in late April showing a blazing hot / dry summer. That is a natural concern when you are running below on precipitation. When you are dry, there is a tendency to "fry". Limited soil moisture makes it much easier to heat up and remain hot. That's not a big secret. If we combine the three months of June/July/August (meteorological summer), western Kansas could be wetter than average, while areas farther east could be just "average". The Desert Southwest may have a good monsoon season this year, if this forecast map verifies. 

Temperatures don't look that extreme from what I can tell. There will be the classic summer "ridge", or high pressure. That sets up every summer, but its intensity changes from season to season. Will it be strong ridge or one that breaks down periodically? We don't have a good conclusion for that yet, but if you believe what is shown below, there's reason to think this summer won't be as hot as recent ones. 

Thanks for reading. Let's hope the rain keeps moving our way. 

Past drought cycles as rain finally returns

One of the questions that's come up lately is how the ongoing drought compares to recent drought cycles. I did some digging and found that since 2000, this is one of the longer periods of drought that Kansas has experienced. For the sake of this research, if at least 50% of the state was in some level of drought, I counted it. Following that, I found a 4-year cycle of drought back in 2011-2015, which would make this current cycle the 2nd longest since 2000. It is rare to find drought that persists more than 4 years in any one particular area, so we have to be nearing the end of this, but it may take several more months. 

This long-lasting drought does coincide with a very lengthy La Niña cycle (from 2020 to early 2023). And the El Niño that we had back in 2023 ended after less than a year - not really long enough to get us out of the predicament we are in now. 

La Nina barely even developed and is now gone and could be replaced by an El Nino. Note in the image below all of the orange/red showing up near the Galapagos Islands. That warm water is moving westward and could soon enough be in the area south of Hawaii (that's where we determine if El Nino or La Nina is underway). It would be most advantageous to have an El Nino to combat the ongoing drought. Those tend to be wetter patterns for Kansas.

What's on the way:

It seems that a persistent pattern of weak systems out of the West will continue. If we can keep the higher Gulf humidity in place, we will have the chance at rain. What is worrisome is that May is (on average) one of the top 3 wettest months of the year. Much of the state typically can expect 3-6 inches of rain throughout the 31-day period, but lately our luck hasn't been that great. 

Here's how late April looks for rainfall (compared to average) - keep in mind we typically can expect about .5-1" for much of the state during this time period. If the map verifies for us, you could expect over an inch in a lot of areas.

Into early May, the pattern shouldn't change too much. Repeated systems in from the West will hopefully still encounter deep, Gulf humidity. Average rainfall increases in early May too. If central Kansas ends up with "average", then it would be about .75-1", but western Kansas is forecast to be "wetter" than average, so in that part of the state, we could easily get around an inch.

I'd be concerned about rain shutting down from mid-late May. See the map below:

And a similar look from this particular computer model for mid-late May:

All of this to say that we could make some progress on drought improvement, but it definitely won't be over with anytime soon. It would be nice to have a wet summer ahead. That remains a possibility, but we need to see more data.

Thanks for reading!