What does a collapsing El Nino mean for May?

It's been scattered over national news outlets, and we've covered it here several times too, but El Nino is almost 100% dead! Latest measurements are showing water temperatures now are just .8°C above the average (near the equator in the Pacific - basically south of Hawaii)

When you look at current satellite measurements, it's clear to see the blue colors (representing the colder water) that is gathering along the equator. What is labeled as "developing La Nina" is spreading westward into the green box south of Hawaii. (The green box is the area monitored to determine La Nina or El Nino). 

How long is the La Nina going to last?

I think it's becoming clearer that it will be a factor for almost a year. Most modeling shows "cooler" than average water along the equator through at least March, and then weakening. See for yourself:

We cringe going into summer with a strong La Nina - it almost always means heat and drought! Be prepared. This upcoming La Nina may not be considered "strong", but you have to think it will be a big influence in a drier than average summer. It could be another frustrating year for crop production in Kansas. 

I can't imagine that the month of May is going to be much different than what we've come to expect as of late. One model suggestion (European) keeps the western half of Kansas "near to drier" than average. It doesn't mean there will be 0 rainfall - rather it means amounts will be lower than what is typically expected in the month (which in western Kansas is around 3" of rain). Central Kansas rainfall (for a May average) is around 5".

If you want to see another map (from an American model - GFS), here's what it looks like for May:

I hope I'm wrong. Most of the predictions for a wet spring have been far off the mark. It hasn't turned out like we had hoped, and the finger pointing is right at the oncoming La Nina. Models can really struggle in these transition phases.

May averages:

Thanks for reading - I know it's not the news most of you were hoping for, but we'll keep looking for the rain!