The next 30 days are crucial

By now, most of you have probably seen the latest drought map and it's not what we want to see, but we also aren't totally surprised. We are now at 97% of Kansas back in some level of drought, with 7% in "severe" or D2 level (the scale goes up to "D4" or "exceptional")

Here's the map just released on Thursday:

The next 30 days will be absolutely crucial. Some farmers may say it's already too late, or maybe the next two weeks are most crucial for a "make-or-break" on this year's wheat crop. I'm not the expert in that, but the reason I'm pointing to the next 30 days is because after that, most longer-range models go to "drier than normal" heading into June. I'll show the maps in just a second. 

Keep an eye on the setup for April 25-28 - we are keying in on another system coming from California and into the 4 Corners region. In full disclosure, we've had these setups before, and they have failed us miserably. But the alternative is a completely different weather pattern where the upper level winds come out of the northwest OR a ridge of high pressure right over the Plains, which in both cases we wouldn't get any rain chance at all. 

Models bring in the higher Gulf of Mexico moisture starting Wednesday, but it might be even more pronounced by Thursday/Friday (April 25/26) We know there will be a connection to the Gulf of Mexico, so that's at least a start. This will also likely mark our next chances for severe storms (on a larger scale) in the Plains.

It's serious now. This is the time of year we expect to get our rains, and if we aren't getting moisture in April and May, we could be in trouble for a very hot/dry summer. 

Here's the rainfall map (compared to average) for the first 7 days in May - it's at least encouraging. I know we have seen these maps before and they haven't worked out. It is really frustrating, so I'm not upset if you don't want to believe a thing that you see below. It's just some of what we are looking at behind the scenes. 

It may already be dry again by the end of May. This is why I think we have to hope that early to mid-May has rain for Kansas. 

Latest tornado count:

The 3rd full week of April proved to have some active weather across the country. Kansas started it off with some active weather Monday night (April 15/16), and then we had a significant number of storms shortly after. What is a little surprising is who is leading the way with the tornado count in 2024 - OHIO! Of all places, Ohio and Illinois have had twice as many as we've had in Kansas and only equals about what we've had in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas combined. 

Overall, the US is not necessarily running away with the tornado count this year. With just over 300 so far, that is basically on pace for average at this point in the spring season.