Severe weather setup for Monday - rainfall outlook

We haven't had many severe weather events this spring in Kansas. That is a "good news/bad news" situation because the good news - less destruction and headache, but bad news because we haven't been getting good rains either. 

Here's a recap on rains since the beginning of February, which was about the time the moisture started winding down for many areas. 

Your immediate area might be a tad different, but it is a safe assumption that Kansas is running about 1.50 - 3" below normal on rainfall since February 1st, and this trend can't continue, or we will get fried this summer.

Monday severe weather setup:

This will be one to watch as there are several key factors coming together. First, we need humidity! That has been severely lacking with any low pressure system that comes across the Plains. It's what hurt us last weekend (Saturday, April 6) when the humidity wasn't available (dew points were only in the low 50s). This Monday system will have dew points in the 60s - which still doesn't guarantee anything, but it increases our odds of rain/storms.

At roughly 15,000-20,000 feet off the ground, you have some stronger winds pushing in from the 4 Corners, and that can help to strengthen storms too. 

Finally, energy! Most of our computer models suggest enough of it to get the storms rolling & keep them going into Monday night. This too has been severely lacking with recent setups in the Plains. 

All of this to say that we could be looking at hail, wind, and a few tornadoes Monday, so please stick with us.

Rainfall for late April:

It's not overly encouraging. Maybe if we don't get our hopes to high, we'll get some rain. I've posted several maps previously that just haven't worked out. We thought March might have more moisture and that busted. April, so far, hasn't been overly helpful and I'm not sure the next 2 weeks will be that great either. The map below suggests near "normal" rainfall, but that would only be about .50-.75" and not very helpful in getting water replenished in lakes and ponds.

30 Day Rainfall for May:

What tends to be one of the wetter months of the year - May! In one of my earlier blog posts, I mentioned that El Nino springs tend to be wet. Last time we had an El Nino influence in May, we had a huge surplus of rain. I'm reluctant to think that will come around again, but even average rain would be welcome. This is our time of year to get the moisture - if we go into summer with dry ground, the likelihood of frying in summer heat dramatically increases. We don't want a repeat of 2011 or 2012.

Thanks for reading! Have a great day