Severe chances this weekend

I was thinking last night that this was our first week this spring without a red flag warning or wind advisory for any area of the state. It's been wonderful, but I'll admit, with so much humidity around, a little breeze might be nice to help stir up the air. The winds have been so light that (guys like me) can break a sweat just being in the humidity for about 10 minutes. I hope this humidity leads to more rain and it should, especially at the end of the weekend.

Good news is that if we get a few storms today (Friday), the likelihood of severe weather is very low (almost nil) but the storms that do develop could produce some very brief downpours. Because the wind in the atmosphere is so weak, they will be slow moving storms.

I do think we will have a few storms in western Kansas late Friday night and Saturday morning. That activity is also not expected to be severe and you can see where the outlook for severe storms will be Saturday afternoon (mainly Colorado up into Wyoming)

So for now, our main focus will be on Sunday for severe storms to return to our area. Confidence is definitely high that storms will develop in western Nebraska and northwest Kansas after 5 or 6 in the evening. Another area to watch will be west of Dodge City Sunday evening too. The storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds, and as the night goes on, most of the storms will converge into a big complex that rolls southeast. The severe weather mode should transition to a wind threat heading into Sunday night, and the storms could (and should) dump some heavy rains on much of the state.

That won't be the last of the rain. More chances coming up next week to hopefully ease more of the drought.

Possible heavy rains soon

We continue to have some very humid air around central and eastern Kansas. Millie and I try to squeeze in a 30 minute walk every morning and you find out how little you have to do to work up a sweat. It's harder for your body to evaporate sweat into the air when there is already so much moisture in it (making it a little more difficult to cool off). Because of the higher humidity, we could see a few pop up storms today and again Friday, but they will be so hit-and-miss that most of us won't see anything at all.
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Drought monitor week to week comparison

The new drought monitor is out for the week so we get a chance to see what kind of impact the holiday weekend rainfall had on the state. Quite honestly, I don't think there is any change to the map. We had some heavy rainfall in southeast Kansas, but some of it may not have been widespread enough to change the map much. Where we still, desperately need moisture is along the Oklahoma state line, and out into western Kansas where most of the rains have been very spotty.

Forecast rainfall from today - June 7

That leads me to this good news. I posted a similar graphic last week with a 5-6 day forecast for rainfall and it actually verified quite well. We are transitioning back to an active pattern where we may have several rounds of storms beginning Saturday night for some, but more likely Sunday - Wednesday (June 4). It could go beyond that date too, but forecasting skill drops quite a bit beyond 8 or 9 days. They will be the kind of storms that develop late in the evening and continue into the night, producing mainly wind and heavy rains. If the forecast model is right, much of Kansas, including both northern and southern Kansas, will have a chance of more drought-impacting rains. Remember, this is a forecast and not a guarantee and I'll keep updating it as we get closer. But I'm just sharing some of the data with you that we see in the weather office that gives us hope that we could ease the drought even more heading into early June. Tomorrow we will look at the potential for severe storms over the weekend.

Millie goes fishing; quiet for a few days

I should have posted this yesterday, but over the holiday weekend, Millie and I had a fishing trip with my sister back in eastern Kansas. It was a small farm pond that was maybe half full. The water levels (even in eastern Kansas where the rainfall is usually much higher) are very low and could use more rain. But this pond was loaded with bass and the water was nice and clear. While I didn't catch anything record setting, we had a great time. Every time I pulled something out of the water, Millie tried to bite at the fish. It's funny how she can make a game out of something that I'm doing as a way to entertain herself.

The weather looks quiet for a few days. Have you noticed there hasn't been much wind around the state for a few days? In my opinion, it's nice not having to deal with the wind, but I supposed when it gets humid like it has been, a bit of a breeze would be helpful. We probably won't see much wind in our area until Saturday (at the earliest), but more likely that the south breeze will kick in by Sunday.

The slight increase Friday could be some showers over eastern Kansas. They will be spotty

We still expect the rain chances to start going up again heading into the weekend. Chances will start in western Kansas Saturday as the activity will likely be very spotty. We should notice a much better chance for rain by Sunday as our western storm system begins to move our way. We will have to watch for some strong to severe storms later on in the weekend. We are past the peak of severe weather season, but early June can still offer up some decent severe weather events. It's too early to pin down the timing, but look for details in the days ahead. I don't think anyone would be upset getting more rain here in Kansas. We are going to need it going into the summer months.

Next feature to watch closely is the western "L" that you see over Utah by Monday

The need continues

Some of you are just excited as can be after the weekend of rainfall, but still others need a lot more in order to make any impact in the drought situation. We won't have the updated drought map until Thursday, but we know that based on some of the rainfall numbers over the weekend, some improvement was made across south central and eastern Kansas. And there should be some areas in the southwest that have had some improvement as well. 

Best chances for rain today south and east of the KS Turnpike

What's next for Kansas weather? There is still an opportunity for more rain over southeast Kansas this afternoon, closer to the low pressure that started all of the rain chances last week. It will be spotty this afternoon south and east of the Turnpike, but what develops could be some heavy downpours. 

Pattern today (Tuesday)

The pattern will transition to more of a high pressure influence during the second half of the week. That's going to allow the temperatures to remain mild (mainly 80s) and for most of the state, more dry weather to come. Our average high temperature right now is close to 80 degrees. 

Late week pattern - dry and warm

Heading into our final weekend of May (where has the month gone), the weather pattern will be shifting again to more of a southwest wind flow in the upper atmosphere. That is significant because that could help to increase the storm chances once again by Sunday or Monday. The details are not clear this far out, but indications are we could be looking at some chances for strong storms either Sunday or Monday (depending on how fast the western storm system decides to move) There is also a good chance we will see the temperatures heating up too, so get ready for the 90s heading into June. 

Next system drops into the western US to help increase our chances for storms

Rain... finally... for some

How much rain did you get last night? Some had a lot, others had a little, and some are still waiting. Here is a list of some of the totals from around the state. We'd love to hear how much rain you had, so feel free to post on my Facebook page or Twitter (@KWCHRoss)

Wichita (Mid-Continent): 1.74"
Elkhart: 1.29"
Goodland: .88"
Liberal: 0.72"
Garden City: 0.59"
Winfield: 0.25"
Salina: 0.02"
Dodge City: 0.01"
Jabara Airport (NE Wichita): 0

24 hr rainfall estimates from radar (even though the banner says 6)

24 hr rainfall estimates (banner says 6 but it's really 24)

I was actually downtown Thursday evening during the heavy downpour and couldn't believe how heavy it was coming down. The radar estimate clearly shows that areas to the north of K-96 in the city didn't get anything at all. My rain gauge was completely dry this morning. I'm posting radar estimates for the entire state so you can get an idea of where the rain ended up and who was missed.

Looking ahead, we still have good chances to see more rain developing today across the area. I think we will have more storms today than yesterday, and we may have even more widespread type activity late in the holiday weekend. The good news is that we don't expect very many storms to be severe. It's not a guarantee that a few storms couldn't produce some hail, but slow moving storms with heavy downpours and lightning appears to be the main threat.

Future Track model at 6 Friday evening

Some hail possible with stronger storms, but very little severe weather expected

It's easy to get frustrated if you haven't had the rain yet, but don't give up. The chances for moisture go all the way into Wednesday of  next week (although for western Kansas, the chances will probably end after Tuesday as the main low pressure feature gets too far east)

It's very nice to see some areas of Kansas getting more than just a trace. It's been a long, hard drought, and although it's far from over, this rain is probably an attitude booster heading into the weekend. Have a good and safe Memorial Day weekend.

More chances to come

There are already some negative comments showing up about the rainfall forecast heading through the holiday weekend. Some are doubtful that we will see anything at all, while other are doubtful that we even get .50" Forecasting an exact amount of rain is still beyond our capabilities, but we can be confident in a rainfall range for most areas, and it still looks like much of the state will see between 1-2 inches. If you've been following the posts recently, earlier in the week I showed a forecast amount of rain through next Tuesday and I'm posting an update from that same computer model.

Forecast rainfall from today - Tuesday evening

It now places a pocket of 2.5"+ right over south central Kansas. Remember, this is just a forecast model, not a guarantee, but it does give some credibility to the idea that most of the state should see some beneficial rains through next Tuesday. We just have to be patient in situations like this. I know most of us are eagerly waiting on the rains, but the activity will only be spotty at best for today (Thursday) and probably that way through Saturday. Some of our best chances for rain should come Friday, Friday night, and then again Saturday night. I still have high hopes that we will see more widespread type activity by Sunday, Monday, and even into Tuesday morning.

Better chance for scattered activity Friday P.M. and evening

Saturday morning and early afternoon rain chance

The heaviest of the rain Wednesday night went north of I-70, but some areas picked up close to an inch (green colors) already, and that was just round 1. I'll update the blog again Friday before the long weekend begins. The good news is that the severe risk is low through the holiday weekend. But remember, these are thunderstorms that we are forecasting and although maybe not severe, lightning is dangerous on its own, so if you plan to camp, make sure you are also staying safe. Bring on the rain!!!

Doppler Radar estimated rainfall from Wednesday night through 8 a.m. Thursday morning

Severe threat next few days

We had just a limited number of severe weather reports from northeast Colorado Tuesday evening, but the storms were very intense with some 2 inch hail reported west of Burlington, CO. We even had a few funnels reported too.

The risk for severe storms ramps up again today, especially in western Kansas. Nobody wants big hail, high winds, or tornadoes, but it's so dry in the west that the excitement for rainfall probably overshadows the severe risk. The storms will likely develop after 5 or 6 in the evening, and I expect most of the storms to move east/northeast. Late in the night, we could see some activity either move into or develop north of I-70. A few of those storms could be severe too. Our weather will be unsettled for several days to come because of a stationary front and a slow moving low pressure system that will be tracking across the southwest US. It's the kind of setup we've been waiting on for a very, very long time.

Scattered storms after midnight north of I-70

Thursday will bring another round of late afternoon and evening storms to central and western Kansas.  Some of you have been asking about how much rain we could get over the next 6 or 7 days, and one of the more reliable forecast models shows a fair amount for our area (maybe over 2 inches in some cases) Fingers crossed!!

Forecast rain amounts from today - next Tuesday

Hot today; storms return tomorrow

Our mini-May heat wave continues for another day with some record highs that will be tied or broken by the end of the afternoon. Yesterday we had two (Russell and Smith Center) and keep in mind our high should be in the upper 70s. But then again, how often does Kansas have weather that follows the "norm". It's rare.

Storm chances for Wednesday evening

Severe threat Wednesday

Chances for storms cover more of the state on Thursday

It looks to stay dry today, but things begin to get active tomorrow evening in western Kansas and then chances ramp up for the rest of the week and through the Memorial Day weekend. Trying to figure out the timing is the most difficult part right now. I think we can safely say that Wednesday evening/night, chances will be in the west and north of I-70, and then almost all of the state will have a chance come Thursday evening. The chances will again be statewide Friday as a front just meanders over the area. I know this doesn't sound encouraging for the holiday weekend, but if this is what it takes to make it rain, I declare the next 3 weekends to be holidays. (wouldn't that be nice - 3 day weekends for the next 3 weeks) The forecast rainfall amounts from our Future Track are pretty small, but it also cuts off Thursday evening (before most of us have a chance to see the moisture). Heaviest amounts are to the north, but I think we have a good chance to see some 1-2 inch amounts around the area before the holiday weekend comes to an end.

Some severe storms are possible each day, but a widespread, severe weather event is not expected anytime soon.

Millie is very intrigued with something on the IPad. Can you figure out what she is looking at? It's not a milk bone.

(Answer: a web camera in Rockies - near Breckenridge) Probably not as exciting as you had hoped.

Summer is back

Hope you had a good weekend and ready or not, summer weather is surging back into our area. I guess the timing is appropriate for kids and teachers going on summer break, but it is still WAY too early in the season to be getting this hot. Record highs will be challenged this afternoon with temperatures running about 20 degrees warmer than normal.

For some areas, tomorrow might even be hotter than today. I'm drawing a stationary front on the map at 6 p.m. today. That same front will be sliding south for Tuesday, so some areas will see the temperatures coming down a little, while other areas (south of the front) get hotter. More records could be broken on Tuesday. 

Temps Monday at 6 p.m.

Temps Tuesday at 6 p.m. Not as hot north of the front

We are heading toward the unofficial start to the summer season and Memorial Day weekend could be stormy throughout the area. There are mixed feelings about it because everyone wants to be outside, but if this is what it takes to make it rain here again, plan lots of outdoor events. It's not very clear when our best chance for rain will be, but I'm very confident we will get storms in Kansas beginning Wednesday night for the west and then chances spread east for Thursday - Sunday night. Confidence is fairly high because of a storm approaching from the southwest US and a stalled front over the area. The setup doesn't look to favor a lot of severe storms (thank goodness), but some hail and wind will be a possibility with stronger storms. Look for updates throughout the week on the timing of rain chances, but even this far out, it is safe to say we will have several different rounds of rain coming our way. How much we get... well, that remains to be seen, but we can hope it's more than just 12 drops. =)

Weekend rain chances - change next week

Friday is here and I know there are several graduations taking place throughout the weekend. I've had several people send me messages on Facebook and through email asking whether or not it's a good idea to setup for graduation receptions outside or not. In this case, if you setup outside, it rains, but if you decide to play it safe and go inside, then it's dry. Isn't that Murphy's law?? I don't know, but Saturday is a pretty safe bet that most of the state will be dry. A few storms are expected in western Kansas, but they will be scattered and likely NOT severe.

Rain chance Saturday P.M./eve

Then on Sunday, the moisture spreads a little farther east and we get chances into central and eastern Kansas. Timing is a bit in question, but I'd say evening and up to about midnight will be our best window of opportunity for rain. Once again, severe storms are NOT expected Sunday evening.

Rain chance Sunday eve./night

Get ready, next week the summer-like temperatures will be back and highs climb back to around 90, and even some cases, reach the mid 90s. I guess if you need some hot weather to get you in the mood for Memorial Day weekend, we will have that working in our favor. Have a great weekend.

Pattern change for next week. Hotter air returns

Thursday/Friday rain chances

The week is winding down and we are just one week away from the Memorial Day weekend which is considered the unofficial kickoff to summer. It hasn't felt like summer this week, but the way things are setting up for next week, it's going to get hot leading up to the holiday weekend.

Very spotty sprinkles today - 4 p.m.

We still have some chances for moisture the next few days. What falls from the sky today will fall into the "sprinkles" category and then for tomorrow, we will bump that up to showers. The activity on Friday might be just a little heavier compared to what we will see for today (Thursday). Nice to have some rain, but I think the amounts will continue to be less than .10" (if you get anything at all)

12 p.m. Friday

Showers slide south Friday by 9:30 p.m.

It's another busy graduation weekend coming up. It's been several years since I graduated from anything, but I remember how relieved I was graduating from KU. School was hard for me, and it felt so good to be done with the books and move to another phase of life. So if you are graduating this weekend (or did last week), congrats!!

Hopes of long range change

Welcome to Wednesday! I can't get enough of the 60s that we are having this week in Kansas. For me, 60 and 70 degree weather is just about perfect, but everyone has a little different preference (guess that's why we have thermostat settings in our homes)  We definitely have seen some wild weather in May so far.

There's going to be some chances for spotty rains the next few days. It's only going to be enough to spot up the windshield (if you see anything at all) There are a couple of weak systems coming our way from the northern Rockies that may stir up some of the showers in Kansas. So any activity that you see on the radar will likely be moving southeast and amounts will barely be more than a trace. 

Could there finally be a long term, major shift toward wetter than normal weather coming to Kansas? Honestly, I wish I had an exact "yes" or "no", but if history repeats itself, then we could answer that question with a "yes" and feel very good about how things may begin to change later this summer and into the fall. Most of you have probably heard of El Nino by now. It started getting a lot of discussion back in the late 20th century because it was incredibly strong and had major impacts on the weather picture around the country and world. El Nino is the unusually warm water off the Equatorial Pacific that leads to pattern shifts around the globe. The last big one that we had was back in 1997-98 and this map shows some of the major shifts that took place during that time. 

Impacts from the historic El Nino

A few months ago, an El Nino watch  was issued for much of the country because the satellite imagery is showing a build up of warm water again just off the coast of Peru. Look at the striking similarities to 1997. It's no guarantee that El Nino will show up later this year and even more challenging to forecast how strong it would become, but the chances look to be greater than 50% that we will have an El Nino soon. So what does all of this mean for you? Typically, Kansans should expect near to above normal precipitation during strong El Nino events, and in the wintertime, our temperatures have a tendency to be warmer than average. I did some checking around the state and found that our rainfall during the El Nino of 97-98 was around normal and our winter that year showed above normal temperatures. But if trends continue and we do end up with an El Nino influencing our pattern, it could be the end of the drought for Kansas and much of the western US. I hate seeing anyone deal with flooding or extreme drought, but I think it's time Kansas got back on track with rains and stop looking like a desert in some areas. I don't know for sure, but I think we are on year number 3 or 4 with drought in some areas of the state, and it's devastating. Here's hoping the rains come back soon!!

Water temperatures near the Equator (1997 on the left) compared to this year

Cooler than normal; mainly dry

Here's hoping your week is off to a good start. This will continue to be a very quiet week around the central US. No complaints here, but there were several areas that missed the rain over the weekend, and we'd like to stir up some more moisture and bring it to Kansas. The weekend rains were very heavy for some, barely enough to settle the dust for others, and still far southwest Kansas couldn't buy a drop (west of Dodge City)

Rainfall from over the weekend

The weather pattern this week reminds me of the one we had a few weeks ago when it was windy almost 7 days straight and the temperatures were so cool. We are seeing that again this week, just without so much wind every day (thank goodness)

Pattern setup for the rest of the week.

The rest of the week won't be completely dry. There is a weak system sliding in from the northwest that will bring some spotty showers back to northwest Kansas (likely Wednesday and maybe even Thursday too)  They won't be heavy, but northwest Kansas could sure use more moisture. So I guess if things are going to stay so dry around Kansas, we just as well have the cooler than normal temperatures to help ease some of the stress on our plants, crops, gardens, etc. Those 100 degree days in May can sure turn things brown in a hurry.

Future Track model for Wednesday afternoon showing showers in the north

Sunday storm recap

Hope everyone had a nice weekend. We thought there would be some severe weather around this weekend and in fact, we had two different rounds (one Saturday evening and then again Sunday). Sunday was probably the biggest severe weather day we've had this year. I don't recall how many tornadoes we had, but I think we had at least 4 or 5. Keep in mind, the number of reports will almost always be different than the actual number of tornadoes that occurred.

hail from Dodge City

We did have some tremendous hail with the storms. I think some of the most significant hail was about the size of tennis balls, and we had one report of that in Kingman county. There was a TON of golf ball hail reports throughout the evening. I'm sharing some of the storm pictures that came in Sunday evening and we appreciate all of the pictures that we get (as long as you safe while taking the them)

North of Inman (tornado warned storm headed for McPherson)

The storm that approached McPherson yesterday evening around 10 p.m was a difficult one to follow. Nighttime tornadoes are so difficult to track because you don't have the added benefit of sunlight. I'm posting a picture from the Inman area, looking at the storm to the north as it approached McPherson. It's very hard to tell what is going on, but you can definitely see some very low hanging clouds. The rotation seemed to ramp up every now and then on the radar, but it was definitely hard to pinpoint the exact area of the tornado. The video posted here is from the Great Bend area as another storm passed their location around 8 p.m. with rotation. Our spotter had a brief tornado touchdown there, but didn't see any reports of significant damage. There are some very low hanging clouds in the video, but I can't see a tornado from this viewpoint.

Our weather this week will largely be controlled by a storm system to our north and east. Cooler than normal weather should be expected and our rain chances are slim to none for the remainder of the week as the dry air continues to filter in from the west. We will likely have to wait until the weekend (at the earliest) and more likely next week before the atmosphere resets itself for more chances of rain. And there are still so many areas that still need moisture in the worst way. Let's hope our weekend rain just primes the pump for more moisture to come our way.

Setup for this week.