More chances to come

There are already some negative comments showing up about the rainfall forecast heading through the holiday weekend. Some are doubtful that we will see anything at all, while other are doubtful that we even get .50" Forecasting an exact amount of rain is still beyond our capabilities, but we can be confident in a rainfall range for most areas, and it still looks like much of the state will see between 1-2 inches. If you've been following the posts recently, earlier in the week I showed a forecast amount of rain through next Tuesday and I'm posting an update from that same computer model.

Forecast rainfall from today - Tuesday evening

It now places a pocket of 2.5"+ right over south central Kansas. Remember, this is just a forecast model, not a guarantee, but it does give some credibility to the idea that most of the state should see some beneficial rains through next Tuesday. We just have to be patient in situations like this. I know most of us are eagerly waiting on the rains, but the activity will only be spotty at best for today (Thursday) and probably that way through Saturday. Some of our best chances for rain should come Friday, Friday night, and then again Saturday night. I still have high hopes that we will see more widespread type activity by Sunday, Monday, and even into Tuesday morning.

Better chance for scattered activity Friday P.M. and evening

Saturday morning and early afternoon rain chance

The heaviest of the rain Wednesday night went north of I-70, but some areas picked up close to an inch (green colors) already, and that was just round 1. I'll update the blog again Friday before the long weekend begins. The good news is that the severe risk is low through the holiday weekend. But remember, these are thunderstorms that we are forecasting and although maybe not severe, lightning is dangerous on its own, so if you plan to camp, make sure you are also staying safe. Bring on the rain!!!

Doppler Radar estimated rainfall from Wednesday night through 8 a.m. Thursday morning