Big chill arriving soon - rain chance returning soon

We've made it to Thursday and the weather is about to get colder across the area. It's really hard to believe that last week at this time we were headed for 80s and 90s. We've had 21 days with above normal temperatures in October. We will see what the final number comes out to be, but there is still a chance for this month to rank in the top 10 warmest Octobers on record.

A cold front has moved across Kansas this morning, and summer weather is gone. It's time to start thinking about disconnecting the garden hose from the house and getting ready for our first night with sub-freezing temperatures. A hard freeze is likely for much of the area Saturday morning. There is a big chunk of colder, Canadian air that will continue it's southward push into Halloween. You can see on the regional map that Kansas is caught between warmer air west over the Rockies and the big cold plunge just east of us. Trick-or-treating temperatures will be in the 40s with decreasing winds around the area. 

Get ready for a windy weekend around the state, but it should be dry. The forecast models have been hinting at a sprinkle Saturday afternoon for some of south central and eastern Kansas, but it definitely won't be anything more than that.

Rain setup for next week

Our next best chance for moisture comes in early next week. A stalled front Monday afternoon will help develop some rain (and a few thunderstorms) from southwest into central and southern Kansas. I know that not everyone needs moisture, but there are several areas over southern Kansas that need the rain. Forecast models show over an inch of rain from Coldwater to Hutchinson to Emporia. So let's watch this closely over the next few days and see if anything changes. It would be great to have a nice, soaking rainfall before winter gets here.

World Series ending just in time for a big change - killing freeze possible very soon

Our weather continues to be very quiet this week as the World Series takes front and center stage tonight. The weather has been really nice for players and fans with the winds light and the temperatures comfortably cool. High pressure is slow to move, so we will get another nice day for Wednesday and then we start to deal with changes in the weather for the rest of the week.

Another cold front will slip through the area Thursday morning, and in the afternoon, we will have gusty winds (probably around 30 mph) from the north. I don't think you'll notice much of a change in temperatures for Thursday, but you definitely will on Halloween. It looks like highs will struggle to get out of the 50-55 degree range and as the kids get ready to go Trick-or-Treating, temperatures will fall into the 40s. Good news though; the winds will calm down during the evening.

Pattern starts changing and results in some snow for the upper Midwest

It's definitely getting colder though. Look at the lake effect snow that will be setting up around the Great Lakes by Friday morning. Lake effect snow happens when the cold air moves across the relatively warm bodies of water. This is quite common through late fall and early winter, and it's not uncommon for some cities around the lakes to get several feet of snow.

Temperatures Friday evening - MUCH cooler

Kansas is going to be on the western fringe of that much cooler airmass at the end of the week. Several of you have said you are not ready for snow yet. And there isn't anything showing on the weather maps that would suggest snow is in the immediate future, but we know it won't be long before we start talking about winter weather.

Heads up... a killing frost/freeze is quite possible early Saturday morning. Details to come on Thursday.

In the meantime, go Royals!

Cooler & quiet now - turning stormy soon?

Good Tuesday morning. The weather is going to be really nice for the next couple of days. We shouldn't have a bunch of wind to deal with and temperatures will feel like late October. What a quick turnaround from the weekend with highs in the 90s. We've had 19 days this month with highs above normal, and when the month ends, there is a chance it will rank in the top 10 warmest Octobers on record. We average the high and low temperatures together to see where the month will rank. Of course, we won't have a final number until Saturday.

High pressure will keep the weather calm for today and Wednesday. No chance for any rain and the skies will generally be sunny both days.

There is another fast moving cold front that will move across the area Thursday morning, so I expect the wind to be gusty from the north, and temperatures will start going down again just in time for Halloween. No scary storms coming through for Trick-or-Treating this year. There could be some lake effect snows across the upper Midwest into Friday. Some of you can recall a time when it snowed in Kansas for Halloween, but not in 2014. The weather definitely looks to be changing quickly.

Weekend storm system will create VERY windy weather... but not much rain

Speaking of changes, our weather pattern is about to get active heading into early November. We have a couple of systems that will be coming our way this weekend. We won't notice much other than the strong south winds. I expect wind gusts over 40 mph both Saturday and Sunday. There's a better chance for some rain coming up Monday, especially for areas of south central and eastern Kansas. We will have to see where the moisture feed sets up, but it looks to target mainly southern Kansas and Oklahoma. Details to come in the days ahead!!

Record warmth ends - back to October

Hot spot in Kansas Sunday was Medicine Lodge

What a weekend! Highs getting into the 90s and setting records all over the place. We talked about the weather pattern looking like a summer setup with high pressure sliding through the area. The days are getting shorter and the sun has a lower angle in the sky, so it's a little harder to get to 90 this time of the year (but as we saw yesterday, it can be done)

Widespread rainfall is not likely anytime soon. Wichita has almost reached a 6 inch rainfall deficit for the year, and it's unlikely any of the cold fronts this week will deliver much needed moisture.

The Royals are behind now in the World Series, but as the games move back to Kansas City, the weather is looking nice and cool. The winds should stay rather light too for Tuesday evening, but if game 7 is needed, there could be a little more wind to deal with Wednesday.

Late week shift in the weather pattern will keep things dry and seasonal

Halloween weather this year looks pretty good here in Kansas. We will once again be going under a high pressure aloft, and that should keep the rain away through the first weekend in November. I can remember some years where it snowed on Halloween, but that won't be the case this time around. The weather looks pretty typical for the end of the week with highs in the 60s for Friday. We will likely cool off into the 50s though in time for Trick-or-Treating. Have a good week.

Late summer rally in Kansas - but change coming soon

The rainfall Wednesday evening wasn't much, but then again, we weren't forecasting anything significant. Most rainfall amounts have been .10" or less. The clouds are hanging around Kansas early this morning (Thursday), but we still expect the skies to clear in time for the partial solar eclipse. Just a reminder, the eclipse begins at 4:36 (when the moon touches the edge of the sun) and it will reach its peak at 5:46. The sun will actually set about 10 minutes prior to the whole thing being over. 

We've had 14 days this month with highs above normal and by the end of the weekend, that number will climb to 18. There hasn't been much cool air lately because it's been stuck in Canada with the jet stream tracking so far north. That could be a sign of what may be setting up going into the winter season. Stay tuned. We will be watching the record book Friday afternoon and again Sunday. With forecast highs into the 80s, that will put us in record territory. About the only way you'll know it's fall is by looking at the changing color around us, and right now, I see a lot of maple trees with a lot of red and orange. 

A big cool down is coming early next week. A cold front will push through Monday and send us back into some fall-like weather for the start of the week. Even though it could be a 20-30 degree drop, it only brings us back to normal for late October (average high is 67). We are still on track to have some comfortable 70-to near 80 degree weather as we approach Halloween. And it will likely be dry for Trick-or-Treat this year.

Much cooler weather is coming our way Monday afternoon - Tuesday

The World Series moves to San Francisco now. So excited to see the Royals win big Wednesday night and we hope they can continue that success through the weekend. I'm not sure if the rain Saturday will be enough to cause delays or a cancellation, but overall, Friday and Sunday games shouldn't have any problems and the temperatures look comfortable.

4 day forecast for San Francisco

Solar eclipse details, some rain, and an early Halloween forecast

A little disappointment with the outcome of last nights Game 1 of the World Series (if you are a Royals fan), and unfortunately, we will most likely be disappointed by this storm system that is coming into Kansas too. It's not a very organized system and our moisture supply is limited, so I'm forecasting rainfall amounts up to 0.25" with the reality that most of us will get a lot less than that.

Thursday, October 23rd

There is a partial solar eclipse coming up Thursday. We've already had two lunar eclipse events this year that have been fun to watch. But when it comes to solar eclipses, they don't happen very often. A total solar eclipse is even more rare (the next one of those is in August of 2017). You'll need special glasses to view this, or you can try poking a hole in a piece of paper and projecting the image on something. You don't want to be looking directly at the sun. The best time to look is around 5:45, and remember, this is just a partial eclipse, so the entire sun will not be covered. The sun will set about 10 minutes before the entire eclipse is over. Should be pretty cool to watch and hopefully there won't be any clouds in our way.

Looks like a July or August weather pattern

Summertime weather is coming back for Friday and the weekend.  A large high pressure system will allow our highs to climb into the 80s and approach record values. This exact same weather pattern in July or August would lead to 90s and 100s, but it is October after all. Normal highs for this time of the year are in the mid 60s and we will be 20 degrees above that. We are getting ready to see some bigger changes take place early next week though. It will feel more like fall by Monday and Tuesday. AND, I've looked ahead to the Halloween forecast: Dry with highs in the 70s. Should be nice this year.

Halloween week starts out MUCH cooler!

Midweek storm chance and a change to severe weather outlooks

Unusual October weather pattern

Our week is off to a warm start around Kansas. It was a little weird seeing high temperatures hit 80 degrees and it will happen again before the end of the week. Feels like summer and the weather pattern setup resembles that of July or August. I don't think we will break any record highs, but we could get close toward the end of the week.

Game 1 of the World Series will be played in some really nice weather in Kansas City. Today and tomorrow should be very comfortable with light winds and temperatures close to 60. And then as the Royals get ready to leave town Thursday, the chance for rain moves in.

Game 1 Forecast

The chance for rain will increase around here Wednesday evening and into the night. This is a disorganized, weak storm that's going to pass through the Plains. Moisture is limited, so I think rainfall amounts will be 0.25" or less for much of the area. Some areas don't need any rain right now, but south central and some of southwest Kansas could sure use it. Wichita is about 5.50 inches below on moisture for the year.

There is a change coming to the severe weather outlooks that we show you on TV. Starting tomorrow, instead of having just slight, moderate, and high risks for severe storms, you will now hear us use the word enhanced. You can think of the new outlooks like this:

Slight = Very Isolated (one or two severe storms possible)

Enhanced = Good chance (hail and wind likely, a few tornadoes possible too)

Moderate = Severe weather likely with hail, wind, and some strong tornadoes

High = Severe weather outbreak is coming with destructive tornadoes likely 

We will be talking more about this as severe weather season draws closer next spring, but it's a change that's been in the works now for several months. 

More details on the partial solar eclipse coming in tomorrow's blog. Have a great Tuesday!

Warm weather pattern & another chance for rain

Pacific system headed for Kansas midweek

We are coming off of a really nice weekend of weather in Kansas. Some of us could use a little more rain and we will have a chance coming up midweek. There's a storm system that is coming in from the Pacific and will arrive Wednesday afternoon/evening. It's not a very strong system and it certainly doesn't have a tremendous amount of  moisture to work with, so the rainfall amounts will likely be under .50" (and may actually end up closer to .25")  We are heading into our dry season, so it's not that much of a surprise with the rain chances getting fewer and fewer.

Rainfall amounts will be very limited this week

Pattern heading into Oct. 24-25. High pressure will allow our temps to get very warm

Overall the pattern looks very warm for another week. The cool, Canadian temperatures are locked up to the north and it's unlikely we will see any significant cool down until next Monday (Oct. 27) And I've taken a few calls wanting to know when we may have our first snowfall. It's still a long ways off as the pattern shows no sign of delivering cold air. No need to find your snow shovel yet.

There will be a partial solar eclipse Thursday afternoon (the entire sun will not be covered). It will begin at 4:37 p.m. and the maximum eclipse will be at 5:44. This is the kind of eclipse that you need special glasses or setup to view because you don't want to be looking directly at the sun. A solar eclipse is when the moon passes between the sun and Earth, blocking some of the sunlight. We do have a total solar eclipse coming up August 21, 2017 that will be visible across much of the United States.

This is what the partial eclipse will look like around 5:44 in the evening

Another winter outlook issued

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for December - February

Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook for December - February

Another winter outlook was issued from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on Thursday and you can click on the maps for a larger image. I put very little value in these forecasts. Last year, the CPC missed the huge polar vortex that setup across the Great Lakes. A forecast that was made in late December (for the month of January) didn't give any indication of a bitter cold outbreak for the eastern half of the country. I've have a few people ask me what "equal chance" means, because after all, that's where Kansas ends up in a lot of these forecasts. It means above normal, normal, or below normal are all possible... which doesn't tell you anything at all.

The temperature forecast from the CPC didn't do very well for January (of this year)

Making a seasonal forecast is very hard to do, but I don't think one can make very many conclusions on what kind of winter we will have for about another month. There are still so many changes taking place in the jet stream and the overall pattern is still evolving. I have a tendency to think that a dry fall usually leads to a dry winter. And it's looking to me like the bitter cold temperatures we had last winter most likely won't repeat, but we are still watching and waiting for things to become more clear. We are still expecting at least a weak El Nino to have some influence on the weather this winter, but it just hasn't taken off yet. An El Nino influence on the weather pattern typically results in a wetter winter around here.

So we've seen the Farmers Almanac prediction of a piercing cold winter with near normal snowfall and now the Climate Prediction Center tells us basically anything could happen. Let's wait another 3-4 weeks and see what happens with our weather before we make some conclusions about the upcoming winter.

Quiet, fall weather continues

The weather we see today in Kansas is the exact reason why fall is my favorite season. Cool morning temperatures, warm 70s in the afternoon, and light winds for most of us. The humidity will be down and it should be a really nice day for all. The weather will be just spectacular for Royals fans at Kauffman Stadium too. Temperatures will be in the 60s during the game.

A major hurricane is working it's way through the Atlantic and headed right for Bermuda. Hurricanes reach "major" status when they get to category 3, which is 111 mph winds or stronger. The Atlantic has been so quiet for much of the summer and early fall. The Pacific could see another named storm soon. There appears to be some development just south of Mexico and we could have "Trudy" in the next day or two. At least two of the tropical systems from the Pacific have had some influence on Kansas weather, but it's way to early to say if this developing storm will too. 

It does look like our next chance for measurable moisture (at least on a larger scale) would be next Thursday, October 23rd. We will be watching. Go Royals!! Have a good Wednesday.

Good baseball weather - nice days ahead - and Millie back in school

Lots of excitement surrounding the Royals game in KC and a little frustrating getting the news that the game was postponed. It was definitely a good idea. I don't think the players or the fans really wanted to be out in the weather Monday with gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall (they ended up getting well over an inch of rain)  Future Track shows the storm pulling away. Other than a nearby sprinkle, dry weather is likely throughout the evening at Kauffman Stadium.

First pitch - just after 7

End of the game - assuming they get it done in 9 innings

Our weather looks very quiet in the coming days. Sunshine and cool, fall weather is likely through the remainder of the week. The warmest day this week will be Thursday when we get into the upper 70s and at the same time, a cold front will pass through, changing our winds to the north. Cooler air will start to push south heading into Friday and the weekend. There's very little chance we will have any rain around here for the next 8-10 days... maybe even longer. 

Hurricane Gonzalo will be in the news for the rest of the week as it will likely become a major hurricane by Wednesday afternoon. Bermuda could take a direct hit later this week. It's been a very SLOW Atlantic hurricane season this year, and we are now one month PAST the peak of the season. It definitely continues to slow down in late October and November as the water temperatures cool down.

Millie and I had a school talk on Monday in Hutch. We visited the 2nd graders at Wiley Elementary School. They were a good group, but a little concerned about Millie's decision to nibble on a crayon (no I don't know what color). Rest assured, she's done it before... and she's doing well today (thank goodness for non-toxic)

Rainy and windy start to the week

Hope everyone had a nice weekend. A stormy start to the week with a huge system wrapping up over Oklahoma and western Missouri. The rain seems to follow the Kansas City Royals around. They had some rain Friday night in Baltimore and now that they are back home, another round of moisture is likely to impact the game. Our Future Track model shows the rain all over KC through the evening and temperatures in the 50... not a very nice night for baseball.

Royals... if they play... will likely be in rain through most of the game

Rain showers should end from west to east later today. We certainly won't have any severe storms; just a slow, steady rain that some areas need and others don't. 

Gusty conditions finally end Tuesday night - Wednesday

Windy conditions will continue throughout the state today with gusts over 40 mph likely. Although it will back down some later tonight, we are still very close to the storm and will have wind gusts over 20 mph through the night and still looking breezy on Tuesday.

Once we push this wind/rain making storm away, the rest of the week looks very nice with sunshine and typical fall weather. Highs most days will be in the 70s with lows in the 40s. 

Setup for today... October 13

Setup by Wed/Thurs - system pushes farther east

Rain moving in & a special visit

stalled front will lead to heavy rains

We shouldn't have to wait much longer for the rain to start falling. There have been some showers and storms across northeast Kansas this morning, and it continues to move east. The forecast continues to call for some locally heavy rainfall, simply because the leftover tropical moisture from Simon is going to combine with a stalled front. So there should be several rounds of rain developing through the afternoon and especially into the evening. Some of the stronger storms may produce some small hail, but the overall severe threat is very low. I know the humidity the last few days is much higher than you would normally find in October.

Possible rain amounts through early Saturday

It will still be raining on Friday, but should begin to ease up a bit heading through the afternoon. It will be a little soggy for any high school football games, and even if the rain stops, wet fields and wet bleachers will make for an interesting evening. The wind will be a little gusty too, making it feel even cooler.

Another storm system will push through Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Scattered rain and a few storms can be expected. The amounts of rain will be less than .50 for most of the state, but I expect a little more than that over south central Kansas heading into Sunday night. Once again, the severe threat will be rather low. We probably won't see any 80 degree weather until the middle of next week (at the earliest)

Pattern begins to shift early next week, allowing for a midweek warmup

Millie and I spent part of our Wednesday with little Alicia, a 4th grade student battling cancer at Caldwell Elementary School. She really is a sweet individual making an impact on a bunch of people. Her joyous and grateful spirit is what I noticed most about her. The students at the school have been helping raise money to assist with her medical bills. The teachers and staff at the school should be commended on all of the great things they are doing to help her through each day. We were so glad to be a part of the Alicia Friendship Walk.

Potential for heavy rainfall

From Kathy Rogers - Pretty Prairie

The moon put on quite a show this morning. When I got up to look for it, I had to wait for a cloud to get out of my way. I watched it for a few minutes and then decided sleep was more important.

As we have been advertising throughout the week, rain is on the way to Kansas, and due to the tropical connection (what was Hurricane Simon), we stand a chance of a good soaking rain. Forecast models have been showing some of the heaviest over southern Kansas, but now, it looks as if much of central and eastern Kansas will see 1-2" amounts. Western Kansas will get rain too, but I would expect .50-1" for most areas.

Generous rainfall on the way to Kansas

There will be a stationary front draped over the area through Friday night, and we should have several rounds of rain tracking across the area. Most likely going to be a wet and cool evening for high school football Friday evening, but some of us really need rain, so we are happy to see the moisture coming this way.

Stalled front should be around through Friday helping produce the heavy amounts of rain

Have a good Wednesday.

Lunar eclipse tonight & some rain on the way

lunar eclipse stages

If you are interested in the lunar eclipse, don't forget that is tonight (or technically early Wednesday morning). The partial eclipse will begin at 4:15 a.m. when the moon starts to enter the Earth's shadow, and the total eclipse will begin at 5:25 a.m. It will last for roughly an hour. During that time, the moon will have a red color to it. If you want to impress your friends, tell them the moon is passing through the umbra at 5:25.

We could be in record high territory today (Tuesday) with temperatures close to 90 for some. Yes, a full week into October and we are still in the upper 80s. Normal highs are down in the lower 70s. A warm front lifting into southern Kansas will develop storms east of the Flint Hills Wednesday night and early Thursday.

I'm still expecting to see some rain, beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing through Friday. The forecast models are still showing the higher amounts of rain to fall over the southern half of the state, where some places could get over .50". That may not sound like much, but keep in mind, in the last 39 days, Wichita has only had a little more than .50. So I think we'd be thrilled to get anything that amounts to more than just a few drops.

Forecast rainfall through 11 p.m. Friday

Looking down the road, another storm is going to be developing right over us heading into the second half of the weekend. And if things work out the way we think they will, once again, the better chance for heavier rainfall will be focused over the southern part of the state. Details to come.

Late week storm will develop right over the central US