Another winter outlook issued

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for December - February

Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook for December - February

Another winter outlook was issued from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on Thursday and you can click on the maps for a larger image. I put very little value in these forecasts. Last year, the CPC missed the huge polar vortex that setup across the Great Lakes. A forecast that was made in late December (for the month of January) didn't give any indication of a bitter cold outbreak for the eastern half of the country. I've have a few people ask me what "equal chance" means, because after all, that's where Kansas ends up in a lot of these forecasts. It means above normal, normal, or below normal are all possible... which doesn't tell you anything at all.

The temperature forecast from the CPC didn't do very well for January (of this year)

Making a seasonal forecast is very hard to do, but I don't think one can make very many conclusions on what kind of winter we will have for about another month. There are still so many changes taking place in the jet stream and the overall pattern is still evolving. I have a tendency to think that a dry fall usually leads to a dry winter. And it's looking to me like the bitter cold temperatures we had last winter most likely won't repeat, but we are still watching and waiting for things to become more clear. We are still expecting at least a weak El Nino to have some influence on the weather this winter, but it just hasn't taken off yet. An El Nino influence on the weather pattern typically results in a wetter winter around here.

So we've seen the Farmers Almanac prediction of a piercing cold winter with near normal snowfall and now the Climate Prediction Center tells us basically anything could happen. Let's wait another 3-4 weeks and see what happens with our weather before we make some conclusions about the upcoming winter.