Severe weather update - Monday

Hope you had a terrific weekend. We had some beautiful weather, but the wind started to interfere Sunday afternoon. It's those stronger winds that are responsible for pumping the higher humidity right up into Kansas.

Today (Monday):
There is a slight chance for just a couple of storms early this evening (mainly west of a line from Hays to Pratt) There are plenty of ingredients working against the chance for storms, so what does develop is probably not going to survive more than 3 or 4 hours after sunset.

Tuesday:
Another threat of some strong to severe storms will return Tuesday evening, mainly north of I-70. A very SLOW moving front will be in northern Kansas and this should help to get a few storms going during the evening. Once the storms get going, they should move east or northeast. A couple of storms may develop south of I-70, but those will be few and far between. Timing: storms after 4 or 5 p.m.

Wednesday:
This is the day that will most likely have the strongest chance of threatening weather. More ingredients are coming together and after 3 or 4 p.m., storms should begin to flare up. Where the humidity is highest (over central and eastern Kansas - east of a Russell to Pratt line), hail, high winds, and a tornado or two look possible. Another area that will have our attention is along the warm front in northern Kansas and into Nebraska. It's a complex setup, but we definitely anticipate some rough weather getting into the early evening hours around Kansas.

Severe weather potential - what to expect

It's the end of April and we are heading for our first weekend of the month that looks good for outdoor stuff. It's unfortunate that through the stormy April weather (that ironically, has mostly happened on the weekends) we haven't been able to push the drought back. The latest map came out yesterday and it basically looks like the previous weeks.

This weekend:

The areas to watch this weekend will be west of a Hays to Dodge City line. The atmosphere will be capable of some very (and I mean one here, one there kind of setup) spotty storms. Sunday evening has the best chance of a few storms developing in far western Kansas.

• If a storm develops, some small hail and gusty winds are possible
• Any storm that might develop should dissipate within a few hours of sunset
• Storms that develop will move east/southeast

Next week:

PLEASE PLEASE be careful about what you read and share on Facebook and Twitter. Next week is not looking to be an outbreak of tornadoes. The setup looks favorable for severe storms, most of which will produce hail, wind, heavy rains, and some tornadoes are possible. Because the season has been so slow to start, it's easy to get excited/anxious and jump the gun on the first setup.

Tuesday and Wednesday have the highest chances for severe storms. This is what I see in the data right now:

• Storms will form late afternoon and into the evening on a slow moving front
• Large hail and strong winds look to be the biggest threats
• Storms are likely to move east/northeast on Tuesday, then mainly east Wednesday
• Heavy rainfall is expected, but looking to mainly be along and east of the Flint Hills

Again, some of the finer details are hard to pin down several days out. But most of the information I'm looking at doesn't point toward a huge tornado outbreak.

Last bit of rain for now... but next week

The last bit of rain that we will see for awhile is just about to exit Kansas. And although the drought continues, at least we know it can still rain here.

Rainfall Reports through 7 a.m.:

What we are about to experience is a rather significant change in the overall weather pattern. And later this week, we will take a closer look at the possibility of severe weather setting up next week. We are already one month deep into what we consider severe weather season (April, May, June) and so far its been remarkably calm. 

So here's what's about to happen across the Plains. The recent rain/cloud maker is now moving away from Kansas. Later today (Wednesday) the showers will be moving out.

Thursday:

We are setup to have a windy and mild day. Winds will be coming from the north/northwest behind a cold front, but temperatures are still going to be pretty mild.

Friday - Weekend:

Our first weekend in a month without rain, snow, or a blizzard. That's a little crazy when you think about it, but we are headed for some wind, warmth, and sunshine.

What to watch next week:

In the graphic posted above, you see the "L" over California. That system will help to strengthen the winds in Kansas this weekend, and eventually, lead to a setup that will favor some stronger thunderstorms for the Plains. Details of location, timing, and extent of severe weather are unknown this far out. But we will look into this more carefully Friday. Be sure to check back.

Top 10 coolest Aprils?

We've had a surplus of cool weather this month and there's still a chance we may crack the top 10. If our average temperature ends up cooler than 52.2 (that takes into account highs and lows), then we should be in the top 10. But we will have to see how the remaining days go as we expect the month to end much warmer than it started.

Rainfall stats & how the chances look this week

Welcome to a new week and how fantastic was the rain over the weekend. Now I know some of you will read this and scoff because you didn't get very much. It's easy to get frustrated but we just have to remember there isn't anything anybody can do to change it.

Here's a map showing the weekend rainfall amounts. There is a legend on the side to help understand the colors.

The current drought started up in late September and early October. Here's what the drought map looked like at that time.

And here's where we are now (keep in mind this does NOT include this weekends rainfall):

Even after you throw in our weekend rainfall, many areas are still 4-7 inches below normal since early fall 2017. Here are some numbers for the major reporting stations. And I did look up Salina too. You don't see it on the graphic, but Salina is 2.84" below since the beginning of October.

So our only shot at some rain this week will likely come Tuesday - early Wednesday. It's NOT the same kind of setup that we had with our weekend storm. This is a system that approaches from the northwest, so it's very unlikely that we will see any decent rain amounts out of it. However, some areas will likely get up to .25", and if you get more than that, you'll be lucky.

And I don't know yet how realistic this will be, but we are seeing hints of possible stormier days into early May. Stay tuned.

Some CRAZY tornado records about to be set

The highly anticipated rain maker is about to move across the Plains and this is something we've been watching for almost 10 days. But what is most amazing to me is what we are NOT forecasting... severe thunderstorms. When you stop and think about the fact it's late April, in the Plains, big system pushing in from the west, and there's almost no chance we will have thunderstorms in Kansas. Even south of us into Oklahoma, there could be a few thunderstorms, but chances for SEVERE storms are incredibly low.

Consider these stats:

In Kansas:

In Oklahoma:

There could be some hail and wind with a few storms down in Texas Saturday, but overall, for the time of year, the severe risk is very low. 

I mentioned this in an early blog post that one big contributing factor is the relentless cold air that keeps hanging around. Just look at the month so far.

The average temperature is nearly 5 degrees colder for the entire US. So one of the benefits of having below normal temperatures is that it keeps the tornado threat much lower. 

What does a slow start to the season mean? Nothing!

Take for example 2013. That year, we had 0 tornadoes through March. Only 2 tornadoes in April. And then when May hit, we had 49 . So a slow start doesn't mean the rest of the season will be a dud. 

Wind trend & weekend storm update

The pictures we were getting in the weather center Tuesday evening were just incredible. The wind and lack of rainfall has been devastating for farmers and ranchers. If the wheat isn't suffering from drought, the wind and freezing temperatures aren't helping either.

Just look at some of the incredible dust storm pictures:

Tribune

From Wallace

The wind will go down later this evening, but until then, we can expect gusts around 40 mph at times. And you know by now, that means a ridiculous fire danger presents itself once again.

Here's the latest on the weekend storm. It will be coming through the 4 Corners area tonight/Thursday. While we wait on it, Thursday in Kansas looks beautiful with much less wind and seasonal, spring temperatures.

We are so excited for the rain that it will be easy to get impatient. The rain will start in Colorado and far western Kansas, then spread east Friday night. Most rainfall on Saturday will be over central Kansas. Although it's looking less likely we will get 2 inches of rain, there's still a good chance we will be close to 1" in many spots. 

We NEED this to happen...

After a weekend of cold, snow, wind, record lows, bitter wind chills... basically a weekend in January, things are looking up for Kansas. 

First, temperatures are going back up and will feel like spring. But lets focus on the storm approaching late in the week.

Thursday - Storm will be over the 4 Corners area and Kansas will still be dry.

Friday - Showers and a few thunderstorms start developing in eastern Colorado and far western Kansas. Most of what you'll see on radar will go north-northeast, but the entire system will be pushing east.

Saturday - potential washout for Kansas as the storm continues to move through the central Plains. Although we will see some thunderstorms in Kansas Friday/Saturday, severe chances look quite low. Most of the stronger storms will likely pass through Oklahoma.

Possible rainfall amounts - This storm has a solid connection to the Gulf of Mexico, so there's a good chance we could see widespread 1-2" amounts (maybe more) out of this event. We will update you throughout the week. This is just what we need for the wheat crop and the pasture grasses that really need some help right now.

Blizzard timing - Updated Friday

It's so hard to wrap your brain around the fact we are going from 90s to snow in 24 hours. What?! As some people at work were saying yesterday, that's just beyond crazy even for Kansas.

Here we go: Rain showers will move into western Kansas by early afternoon. It will still be warm enough that what falls will be rain.

After 5 p.m. - snow begins to mix in with the rain across the northwest. Meanwhile, the wind will be increasing and some gusts will be over 50 mph.

Into the night - snow continues across northwest Kansas, but the area is also growing and expanding into central Kansas too. Wind gusts over 60 mph are expected, especially north of I-70 where some power interruptions look possible. Near white-out conditions will be common, and I expect I-70 (and many roads) will be shutting down sometime during the night.

Saturday A.M. - Light snow will continue for central and northern Kansas. Yes, some flakes of snow could even fall around Hutch and Wichita, but unlike last weekend, there won't be accumulations for southern Kansas. Some roads will still be closed Saturday morning, but visibility should be improving by late Saturday morning. Still, wind gusts over 40 mph look likely.

Saturday early evening - Storm will be pulling away, but the wind gusts will continue. Some of us will still see wind gusts over 30 mph into the night.

One Final Thought! - There could be a fairly strong storm moving toward the Plains at the end of next week (April 20-21) This wouldn't be a blizzard, but chances for thunderstorms and some widespread (statewide rains) could impact a big part of the region. Stay tuned!

Severe weather and SNOW... what?

What is up with this weather? The storm we are tracking into the weekend is something we might expect to see in March. There will be severe storms on one side and snow/blizzard conditions on the backside.

Today: Record highs are likely in many spots across central and western Kansas. Some places will get into the mid 90s, which is absolutely crazy for mid April!

Friday Severe Threat:
It's a close call for Kansas, but we will likely see almost ALL hail and wind producing storms track east of Kansas. The setup is a classic, springtime setup where you have some powerful winds above the ground that can get storms to rotate. I think a few of the storms will produce tornadoes, so you will likely hear about tornado watches from Missouri to the Gulf coast.

Snow in Kansas - Yep!
The backside of the storm will produce blizzard conditions across Nebraska and the Dakotas. There will be snow in northwest Kansas, but figuring out how much is proving tricky. Most models indicate this could be a 1-3" snow event for areas along and north of I-70. However, given the strong winds, it's going to be really tough measuring the snow.

Weekend: 
There will be some light snow showers around Saturday morning, but should be ending by the afternoon. Expect more sub-freezing temperatures by early Sunday, so once again, prepare to cover tender plants and protect any irrigation equipment that may freeze and break.

Here comes summer, but is winter over?

Hope your new week is off to a great start. It's hard to believe how warm/hot we are going to be in just a couple of days. And this is just the beginning of what will be a week full of wild temperature changes.

The pattern is shifting for the middle of the week, but it's also an active one. That's how we are going to go from feeling like summer during the middle of the week to winter temperatures by the weekend.

Midweek:

In response to a strong storm forming over the western US, we are going to catch a bunch of wind and heat. South winds will really start to pump the warm air north, and it peaks on Thursday. That's when we are most likely to get into the 90s across the west. 

Friday:

A severe weather event may unfold just east of us at the end of this week. It could be a rather busy day with significant storms forming across Missouri, Arkansas, and down into Louisiana. It's a prime setup for hail, wind, and tornadoes, but it's coming together about 300 miles too far east to bring rain to Kansas.

Kansas will be on the backside of the severe weather event, so our weather turns cooler and still windy. Look what happens going into the weekend.

More freezing temperatures on the way:

I know it's not what you want to hear, but there's still a decent amount of chilly air that wants to dive south. So hold off planting a bunch of sensitive plants because we are likely to drop into the 20s again for another night. While it's unlikely there will be snow in Kansas during the weekend, chances of getting a hard freeze appear to be increasing.