El Nino Update - what's going on?

It's been awhile since we've provided an update on El Nino/La Nina, but as we head into September, I wanted to show you what's developing.

La Nina faded out several months ago. It was back in springtime that we saw water temperatures moderating and for much of the summer, we've been holding in the "neutral" phase.

Water temperatures across many different areas in the ocean have been remarkably cooler than last year, but the area monitored for El Nino/La Nina shows a slow warming trend. This area is along the Equator and has significant impacts on our weather patterns across the US.

The forecast for this El Nino keeps it fairly weak. It won't be nearly as strong as the El Nino back in 2015-16. That was a Super Nino and was one of the strongest ones in recorded history. That winter would go on to have mild temperatures and virtually no snow.

Notice the red bars decreasing with time, indicating a strong likelihood of a weakening El Nino in springtime

We don't know yet what will happen this winter, but El Nino will be a factor to consider. Typically, winters are a bit wetter than normal with an El Nino, but it's too early to say. It does look like our El Nino will be weakening in late Spring 2019. So stay tuned to see how El Nino may be an influence later this fall and winter.

Could a tropical system impact Kansas?

Good morning everyone and thanks for checking in. We are experiencing some cooler weather across Kansas today (Wednesday), but before you start digging out the layers, let's look at what's coming next. If you read the last blog entry, you know I mentioned a rather warm/hot start to September and we still see that coming on.

Just look at the setup into early September. This isn't record breaking heat, but early fall weather is going to be on hold for a bit. The ridge of high pressure in the southeast US holds pretty firm over the next 6-12 days, which will keep our weather from changing much.

The favored areas for rain (where we might see day after day of storm chances) looks to me like it will setup in western Kansas and across northern Kansas too. That's not to say we won't catch a bit of rain farther east, but if the high pressure continues to hold on to the east, it's more likely the heavier rains will stay across western Kansas.

Could a tropical system impact Kansas? Right after the Labor Day weekend, we could see tropical storms begin to impact the Gulf of Mexico. One of the forecast models develops a tropical system and moves it onshore near the mouth of the Mississippi. If it develops, it could continue on a northwest track, putting it close to Kansas by the start of the state fair (Sep. 7/8)

But it's still a good 10 days away and so much will change between now and then. Let's watch and see if 1) tropical weather gets going in the Atlantic/Gulf, 2) how the pattern holds up for our first week of September. If the high pressure system (mentioned above) holds up like we think it will, stormy weather could be moving back toward Kansas from the east. It has happened before.

Sneak peek into September

Our final weekend of August is here and I thought I would share some early thoughts on what lies ahead in September. We are coming off of some rather cool, wet weather for much of the state and I've had more than one person ask if we are headed for early fall. The short answer to that is ... not quite. 

Normal highs going into early September drop into the upper 80s, but if you've lived in Kansas for awhile, you know that we can still have quite a few 90s. It would be very unlikely to see 100s, but that has happened before too. I don't see it getting that hot.

Here's what one piece of data is telling us about the month as a whole:

But remember, that is an average. If we try to break it down into more pieces, I think what you'll find is that the beginning of the month (and maybe all the way through the first two weeks), temperatures will be warm.

However, as we move into the middle of September, and certainly the second half, we have a good chance of seeing temperatures cooling off (and maybe significantly):

Several different computer model runs have been highlighting MUCH cooler air arriving in the last few weeks of the month.

The latest look at precipitation would suggest that near normal rainfall can be expected, and potentially wetter than average across western Kansas.

But I'll warn you, this summer has been REALLY weird with rains. It seems like you either get a ton, or none at all. And the heavier moisture has been mainly staying west (which is why the severe and extreme drought continues across the east). So nailing down precipitation this far out is a challenge, but again, I'm sharing with you what I see in the information right now, and fine tuning as we go.

Changing it up a bit

After a week full of autumn like weather, it's time for a reality check. This has been a strange month. Just look how much of the central and southern Plains have experienced cooler than normal weather. 

We are about to see a similar weather pattern that happened back in June when we had one of our hottest stretches of the year. The big "H" - or the dome of high pressure on the weather map is coming back. Just look at the weather pattern back in the middle of June.

Some areas were hitting 100° during that time. And even though the pattern will be similar, we are unlikely to see temperatures get back to 100°. The high pressure system will setup over northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma. 

That will limit the chances for rain in the Plains. In fact, between now and the middle of next week, most of us won't get any rain at all.

This is it for rain ... and look at what's moving back in

It sure is nice having so much green in our landscape around Kansas, but some of you are getting too much rain it's probably creating a few headaches. But I don't want to be the meteorologist on TV saying "we sure need dry weather" because I know some of you are still patiently waiting.

The setup heading into Wednesday and Thursday calls for more of the off and on variety of rain. There will be thunderstorms too, but we not expecting any severe storms. The main threat might be some heavier showers over areas that had 3-4"+ of rain this past weekend.

Latest track on the rainfall shows it moving into western Kansas Tuesday evening and then moving east for Wednesday. Amounts will be around .50-1" in spots. Southwest Kansas may catch the most. It's unlikely the rain will be as heavy as what we had over the weekend. And it's also not going to be as widespread.

The end of this week will mark a shift in the pattern that we really haven't seen since the beginning of summer. The high pressure dome inches its way back to Oklahoma and Texas.

And suddenly we will find ourselves in a spot where there won't be much (if any) rain for several days and it's going to be heating up.

Weekend rain update

Here's hoping everyone has a nice weekend. Feels like we are getting back to somewhat normal routines now with school back in session and football season starting soon. Fall must be close now, right?

We are still watching a weekend storm that is pushing our way. As of this writing, it's on the west coast, so with so many miles to travel yet, we will get dry weather today (Friday) and again for most of Saturday.

Forecast Rain Amounts:
Rain will move from west to east and give most of the state a nice soaking. I know there will be some areas that get .25" and you won't be very happy, but we'll try our best. The latest data still gives most of the area about 0.50" or more. Heaviest amounts look to be in southern Kansas. From southwest through south central Kansas, some 1-2" amounts look more likely.

I don't expect severe storms to be an issue this weekend. But we will have some heavy rainfall in spots.

And Next Week - An early fall feel!!

Just look at Monday afternoon. Temperatures mostly in the 70s with some grey skies. And there's a good chance we will see a BIG drop in humidity by Tuesday as well. We have some very pleasant weather on the way next week.

Drought update - flooding possible tonight

After some pockets of soaking rains, here's how the new drought map looks today. Remember, the weekly drought map takes into consideration several factors. Just because we've had some rain lately, factors like subsoil moisture, lake and stream levels, farm ponds, etc. all have to be considered too. Any rainfall that fell after Tuesday morning will be factored in on next weeks drought map.

And as you can see, there are still many, many dry areas in central and eastern Kansas.

Strong storms possible this evening:
We will be watching areas east of I-135 for some gusty winds and heavy rains. I'm a little bit concerned about heavy rains causing localized flooding. Eastern Kansas is so dang dry that a good amount of runoff would likely be welcome. Storms will move southeast once they develop.

Weekend Storm Setup:
Looking back to the west, another storm is churning this way. This one will come right over the Rockies and into the Plains. It should run into ample humidity and the amount of water that we can squeeze out of the air will be quite sufficient for heavy rains.

One of the pieces of data we look at in the storm center is "precipitable water" ... or how much water can be squeezed from a column of air. Typically, when values climb above 1", there's a good chance for some heavy rain. When you see them get up close to 2", that's a tropical atmosphere and can lead to some big rainfall amounts. Computer models for the weekend are showing some of those 2" values.

Rain will begin in the west Saturday night. There'll be some threat of strong storms in the yellow shaded area.

The rain will then be in central and eastern Kansas for Sunday. When it's over, it's looking like much of the state could be close to 1", but as we normally see with rain, some will get more with others coming in under 1". I don't expect storms on Sunday to be severe, but watch out for some localized areas of heavy rains.

Rainfall update & what to expect for late August

We are reaching the halfway point of August and the first half of the month hasn't been that fruitful in terms of rainfall. Most areas have had some rain, but it hasn't been that much. Take a look at the map above. Only a few pockets (before Monday) had anything close to 2". This latest storm is helping. And we continue with chances for rain today (Tuesday) with some of it being heavy.

The rain will be moving in different directions today. Most of it will be moving south or east as it rotates on the backside of our latest system. This is a good chance to remind everyone that around low pressure, winds go counter-clockwise. If we lived in the Southern Hemisphere, it would of course be opposite. 

A preview to the next couple of rain possibilities for Kansas:

Thursday night: A batch of storms could dive to the southeast and cross central and eastern Kansas. It's early, so we can't pin down the exact details of where the heaviest will be and timing, but we do have our eyes on this period.

Weekend chances:

Another setup may present itself over the weekend where we get a system pushing in from the western US. And this could set us up for widespread rains Saturday night and Sunday. This particular round has a good chance of soaking many areas. So stick with us during the rest of the week as this storm comes into better focus. We will be update you on possible rainfall amounts when we have a better idea.

Temperatures for the remainder of the month:

We still don't see any big heat returning to the Plains. And even our stretches of upper 90s look rather limited. So what we will likely see for the rest of the month will be upper 80s. 

Rainfall for the remainder of August:

As mentioned above, the next week or so could be fairly active for the Plains, so let's hope we catch some of the moisture still coming our way. However, the longer range outlooks don't look very encouraging for the end of the month. Most of the rain may miss us to the north, so August may end on a dry note. 

Perseid Meteor Shower Alert!!

It's one of the best meteor showers during the year and it peaks this weekend. And this year will be a little extra special because the shower coincides with a new moon, so we won't have extra light to wash out the smaller meteors.

So here are the basics:

• Try to get away from the city lights - the darker the sky, the better
• Peak is Sunday night and early Monday morning, but you can still see quite a few if you decide to go out searching Saturday night.
• Prime viewing will take place from midnight through pre-dawn hours.
• Just look straight up (or wherever the sky is darkest)
• NASA analysis indicates that Perseid meteors tend to be brighter than other meteor showers

What's the forecast for Sunday night? 
We should have decent viewing conditions. It's looking like some clouds will be spreading in from the south. These will most likely be high clouds, so not the kind that completely block our view. However, viewing conditions might be better farther north where you get closer to virtually cloud-free skies.

Did you know?

• A meteor is very small - ranging from the size of sand up to pea size
• Meteors move at roughly 37 miles per second
• If you trace a meteor backwards, it will point you toward the constellation Perseus, which is where the shower gets it's name from
• The Perseid meteor shower was discovered around 1837

Where are the hurricanes this year?

In about a month, we will reach the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but it's been remarkably quiet so far this season. So what's going on?

The water in the Atlantic has been cooler than normal throughout this hurricane season, and it's keeping the activity at a minimum. We are seeing warmer than normal waters farther north (near the US), so it's still very likely some kind of tropical development could take place in the coming months. However, the systems will likely have to form closer to the US (where the water is warmer)

The Pacific is just a freeway right now loaded with tropical systems. There are 5 areas to watch, with Hector leading the way. It's a major hurricane and should pass south of the Hawaiian islands early Wednesday afternoon. There will no doubt be some serious wave action along Hawaii's coast, but a direct hit isn't going to happen.

And then you have an area to watch that will likely become a tropical system soon, with John and Ileana following close behind. I don't think any of those systems will get drawn up into the flow across the US. Therefore, it's unlikely that we'll get any soaking rains as a result of the tropical weather happening in the Pacific. 

The model forecast below  for rain in the next 6 days, and it doesn't have much for Kansas. 


24 Hour Rainfall (ending at 7 a.m. this morning):
Topeka: 1.01"
Hays: 0.89"
KWCH Studio: 0.68"
Wichita (Eisenhower): 0.64"
Newton: 0.62"
Great Bend: 0.61"
Hutch: 0.60"
Elkhart: 0.60"
Emporia: 0.47"
Hill City: 0.41"
Pratt: 0.35"
Liberal: 0.30"
Salina: 0.28"
Winfield: 0.28"
Concordia: 0.10"
Dodge City: 0.04"

Best rain chance this week

Hope you had a great weekend and the heat wasn't too much. Last week was pretty nice for several days, and then August weather showed up Saturday and Sunday. Well, don't worry because we have another change that is about to take place this week.

Best rain chance of the week is tonight (Monday Night):

We have a front in the area that will set us up for scattered storms to move from west to east through our area. A few storms may produce some gusty winds up to 60 mph, but most of the storms won't be that intense. 

The cold front will be slow to move, but as it pushes south, it should help develop more rain and thunder over central and northern Kansas late into the night.

Some early morning showers are expected for the start of Election Day. I don't think they'll be around long and once we get into the afternoon, a bit more sunshine is likely.

Look how the pattern starts to change from Monday to the end of the week. The upper high pressure (sometimes referred to as the "heat dome") retreats from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles to the mountains in the west. As it travels farther west, our heat backs off and we'll see several days this week with upper 80s for highs. Unfortunately, this kind of pattern is going to be very dry. So rain may not be back in Kansas for a week (or possibly longer)