Could a tropical system impact Kansas?

Good morning everyone and thanks for checking in. We are experiencing some cooler weather across Kansas today (Wednesday), but before you start digging out the layers, let's look at what's coming next. If you read the last blog entry, you know I mentioned a rather warm/hot start to September and we still see that coming on.

Just look at the setup into early September. This isn't record breaking heat, but early fall weather is going to be on hold for a bit. The ridge of high pressure in the southeast US holds pretty firm over the next 6-12 days, which will keep our weather from changing much.

The favored areas for rain (where we might see day after day of storm chances) looks to me like it will setup in western Kansas and across northern Kansas too. That's not to say we won't catch a bit of rain farther east, but if the high pressure continues to hold on to the east, it's more likely the heavier rains will stay across western Kansas.

Could a tropical system impact Kansas? Right after the Labor Day weekend, we could see tropical storms begin to impact the Gulf of Mexico. One of the forecast models develops a tropical system and moves it onshore near the mouth of the Mississippi. If it develops, it could continue on a northwest track, putting it close to Kansas by the start of the state fair (Sep. 7/8)

But it's still a good 10 days away and so much will change between now and then. Let's watch and see if 1) tropical weather gets going in the Atlantic/Gulf, 2) how the pattern holds up for our first week of September. If the high pressure system (mentioned above) holds up like we think it will, stormy weather could be moving back toward Kansas from the east. It has happened before.