El Nino Update - what's going on?

It's been awhile since we've provided an update on El Nino/La Nina, but as we head into September, I wanted to show you what's developing.

La Nina faded out several months ago. It was back in springtime that we saw water temperatures moderating and for much of the summer, we've been holding in the "neutral" phase.

Water temperatures across many different areas in the ocean have been remarkably cooler than last year, but the area monitored for El Nino/La Nina shows a slow warming trend. This area is along the Equator and has significant impacts on our weather patterns across the US.

The forecast for this El Nino keeps it fairly weak. It won't be nearly as strong as the El Nino back in 2015-16. That was a Super Nino and was one of the strongest ones in recorded history. That winter would go on to have mild temperatures and virtually no snow.

Notice the red bars decreasing with time, indicating a strong likelihood of a weakening El Nino in springtime

We don't know yet what will happen this winter, but El Nino will be a factor to consider. Typically, winters are a bit wetter than normal with an El Nino, but it's too early to say. It does look like our El Nino will be weakening in late Spring 2019. So stay tuned to see how El Nino may be an influence later this fall and winter.