October stats & November preview

Happy Halloween and the end to a VERY wet month across Kansas. It's been quite a month with record rains and our earliest measurable snow around Wichita. The exact measurements of rain will change just a bit when we get to midnight, but not enough to change the ranking on wettest October.

The map (which you can click on to make it larger) shows the observed rainfall for Kansas this month. Areas in pink received between 10-15" of moisture. How crazy is that? It's more than triple the average amount we get in October.

Measured rainfall in October

And we are on the verge of an active weather pattern unfolding across Kansas and surrounding areas.

System 1 - Moves out later today (Wednesday), but not before producing some wet weather across western Kansas and heavy snowfall in Colorado.

System 2 - Arriving Saturday

This isn't exactly a powerful storm, but it will develop more clouds and a few light showers. We will also catch some wind and cool weather too (temperatures will be in the 60s to start, but then cool down heading into Sunday). The chance of snow is zero as temperatures remain too warm.

System 3 - Arriving Monday

Just before Election Day, we see another chance at some wet weather coming through Kansas. Again, not an overly impressive storm to watch, but this one has a much better chance of dragging in some colder air. So Election Day will be rather cool with wind & highs only in the 50s.

Have a great day.

Are we in El Nino or La Nina?

Our winter forecast will be revealed on Sunday, November 18th at 10 p.m. and as we get closer to revealing our prediction, I wanted to show you what is going on with El Nino/La Nina. They do play very important roles in making seasonal forecasts.

Just a reminder, the area where we look for El Nino/La Nina is along the Equator and in the Pacific. Look at the map below (click on any image to make it larger):

You'll see the shades of red/orange in the box, indicating the water temperatures are above normal, but not by any huge margin. We are on the verge of a weak El Nino going into winter. What that means for Kansas in just one second. The chart below shows past El Nino and La Ninas (the red are El Nino periods and blue are La Nina - and the year is down the left side) and the last El Nino we had was STRONG. In fact, it was one of the strongest in recorded history.

Forecasts continue to show slow strengthening.

Typically, when we have El Nino winters, they show a tendency for wetter than normal patterns in and around Kansas.

And temperatures aren't usually that cold with an El Nino influence.

However, this El Nino isn't going to be that strong. And not all El Nino patterns are going to be the same. So that's the challenge we are working on as we get closer to the start of winter and releasing our winter forecast. Have a great day.

Sneak peek into early November

Our final weekend of October is here and while many of you enjoy this great weather, I thought I'd offer up some brief insights into early November. Our winter forecast will be coming out November 18th (Sunday at 10 p.m.) and I'm excited to reveal what we are thinking for the upcoming winter season. So be looking for that in the coming weeks.

In the meantime, our weather is about to undergo some radical changes as we close out October and welcome November. First thing to watch is a cold front coming through Tuesday. I'm not very excited about rain chances with this system. It's moving fast and never really organizes until it gets east of Kansas. So it's doubtful we will see anything significant from this Tuesday front.

The weather pattern shifts after October!

There's going to be a large buckle in the jet stream. What does that mean? A short answer is that colder air begins pushing back south. It may not be what you were wanting to hear, but for a couple of weeks now we've been seeing hints at a transition back to below normal temperatures for the beginning of November.

Will there be snow?

It's not very likely for Kansas, but something we will continue to watch as the pattern begins to take shape. It's certainly going to be cold enough for snow in certain areas. The Rockies will likely get some fresh powder in the first few days of November. But snow on the Plains is not looking that likely.

Rainfall amounts & update on Halloween setup

How much rain did you get from this latest storm to track across the Plains? It's been slow enough to move that some areas actually exceeding our original prediction of .25-50". So here are the numbers:

Russell: 0.65"

Wichita: 0.61"

Smith Center: 0.56"

Hutchinson: 0.52"

Jabara Airport: 0.50"

Goodland: 0.49"

Great Bend: 0.45"

Newton: 0.45"

Salina: 0.42"

Hays: 0.37"

Winfield: 0.36"

Dodge City: 0.33"

Hill City: 0.31"

Clay Center: 0.30"

Newton: 0.26"

Pratt: 0.19"

Garden City: 0.17"

Medicine Lodge: 0.16"

Liberal: 0.11"

Into the weekend:

The weather calms down a bit into the weekend. We will have to deal with strong winds on Sunday, but that's about the biggest nuisance we will have ahead of us. 

Developing Halloween setup:

We continue to watch and see how the pattern will evolve going into Halloween. Our 10 day forecast has been showing some rain arriving on the 31st, which would complicate trick-or-treating a bit. However, given some recent trends coming in this morning, we might see the rain pass south and east of Kansas. We know a large system will develop west of the Continental Divide, but if it doesn't organize in time, the moisture will go east. 

What we should be prepared for is a return to colder than normal temperatures heading into November! 

We've been anticipating this for awhile, and it looks to be arriving in about a week. So even if we dodge the moisture, we won't be missing the colder air filtering south soon.

Wet weather is back & bigger changes around Halloween

The next wave of moisture continues to move northeast and I guess when you think about how saturated the ground still is, we should consider ourselves lucky that we aren't going to get what Texas is about to see. Willa is going to squeeze out most of the moisture in the southern Plains before it begins to push toward the eastern US.

Latest forecast amounts for rain look like this:

Consider this a wind alert! Behind a cold front that actually moves through Saturday night, wind gusts will top 40 mph in many areas. It's going to be VERY windy on Sunday and many fall leaves will go flying around.

Another rain chance is showing up closer to Halloween. The pattern looks to energize and turn active as we approach the beginning of November. Couple of things to note here. We see a large buckle developing around Wednesday (Oct 31st), which will allow for colder air to start moving back south. At the same time, it will be running into just enough moisture to bring us a chance for some showers on Halloween. The timing is expected to change as we get closer to Halloween, but some showers are possible during trick-or-treat time. None of this rain for Halloween is expected to be snow, but temperatures will be cooling down significantly as we head into early November.

Two features this week - early Halloween look

Our final full week of October is here and what a crazy month this has been with the heavy rains and very cool temperatures. Look at our average October temperatures this deep into the month:

So a good portion of the country is experiencing colder than normal temperatures. Even some of the recent 70° days haven't been enough to get us back to normal. 

Two features to watch this week include a storm approaching from the southwest:

The timing of this feature has been a bit tricky, but it's slowing down. We now expect most of the rain to fall Wednesday night (west) and farther east on Thursday. Rainfall amounts won't be anything to get too worked up about, however, given our situation with very wet ground, there's going to be more runoff (and standing water). We are looking at .25-.50" for most areas.

Another front arrives during the weekend:

We are expecting another cold front to push through here (likely early Sunday) which will knock temperatures back. However, chances for rain will likely miss us to the northeast. 

Are we on the way to a Halloween storm?

It is very early to say with high certainty, but computer models are "hinting" at something in the 10-14 day time frame. I've been noticing for the last week and a half that our longer range data is showing us going back to cold and damp as we move into early November. So will we squeeze Halloween in BEFORE the next round of wild weather in Kansas? Again, it's early but there is at least potential of a storm around Halloween. At the very least, it looks to turn cold heading into early November.

Early hints at our upcoming winter

After the early blast of winter last weekend, including snow, most of you are telling me this has to be a rough winter for Kansas. There are many different forecasts floating around out there. Another one will be released from NOAA today (Thursday).

One of the factors we are closely monitoring are the ocean temperatures. If we go back three winters (2015) you can see how much of the globe was experiencing warmer than normal temperatures (especially in the ocean areas highlighted). The warm water puts a great deal of humidity (water vapor) into the air. If we turn cold, does this mean an increased chance for snow around this area?

Look at where we are now with global temperatures and notice the dramatic cooling around Australia. And it isn't nearly as warm in the Pacific Ocean. So in studying the ocean temperatures, we are beginning to unlock some clues as to what might be coming up for Kansas heading into the winter. It's not the only factor to consider. Other features at play include the Arctic Oscillation and of course, the strength of the El Nino that is expected for the winter too.

We will continue to look at the data for about another month and then make a prediction for the winter season. These are difficult forecasts to make, but we do the best we can with what's in front of us and then go with it. Last year we accurately predicted below normal snowfall for the winter and that was indeed what happened. It was another uneventful winter in most areas.

If your gut instinct is telling you this winter will be bad, maybe you are on to something. But we are still studying the data and hope to draw some conclusions soon.

Heading into next week:

We are still unlikely to see any big rain events. The pattern does shift around a bit and there are a few features coming through that might stir up some showers, but widespread, heavy rains are unlikely. And most of the week should have the faucet turned off. One time period that should have some rain is Wednesday. Right now, it's looking like some .25" to 0.50" for most areas, but we will have to continue to watch because a few spots might get a little more than that.

Next meteor shower is here

As the weather calms a bit this week, we get a chance to look at something else. Our next meteor shower is happening now and will peak soon. It's the Orionid Meteor Shower and you can start looking for those tonight.

The issue with this particular meteor shower is the MOON! Because the moon is waxing (moving closer to full moon phase), we are getting more light and it's washing out the faint meteors. 

Skies will be clear the next few nights, so take advantage of the ideal conditions if you can. Getting away from the city lights and into darker sky will make a big difference. Enjoy.

Still watching a storm south of Kansas:

A large area of wet weather continues to present itself south of Kansas. Just look at the radar this morning. Kansas is familiar with this setup. Significant rainfall and flooding is ongoing in Texas and it will be a couple of days before that system begins to kick out and move away.

Kansas will have a close encounter with rains Thursday night. However... much of the measurable rain will pass south of our area. So we should be able to relax knowing that our flooding situation here won't be getting any worse anytime soon.

Look at some of these records

Such a crazy forecast for the middle of October. Sure, we can see snow at this time of the year, but it's a little strange considering how early it is and then to think some areas will get a couple inches before it's over with.

Here are the earliest measurable snows for different areas of Kansas:

And then we went digging for the last measurable October snow and found these stats. It's been over 20 years since Salina has had measurable snow this month. It's more common to get an October snow in western Kansas. In fact, Goodland just had some at the beginning of the week.

Hard Freeze likely Monday ... and Record Lows too

This early blast of cold air could result in some 100+ year old records being set in parts of the state. It's very likely some 20 degree lows will show up by Monday morning. Dipping that low threatens a 142 year old record in Dodge City. How crazy would that be. Several other areas of the state could be looking at record lows too. So keep an eye on the mercury early next week. This forecast will look and feel like January. 

Chance of snow - then a big switch up

We get rid of one big storm (and one heck of a wet storm at that) and the active weather isn't over yet. Chances for rain showers will be coming through Kansas early Friday, and as you've probably heard, this isn't going to produce much. However, given how saturated the ground is, what we do get Friday morning will just run off and add to the standing water.

Sergio Watch!

All week we've been telling you about how close we'll get to seeing a tropical system come through the Plains. Well, that's still going to happen, but over the last 3 days, the computer models have kept the storm tracking a bit farther south. That means, heaviest rains will pass through Oklahoma. It's a close call & very important that it stays south because there will be 2-3 inches of rain with the leftover tropical system. That would be a big problem for Kansas. 

Snow is Coming!

We've also been telling you about a chance for snow that shows up in the forecast for Sunday. It's going to be very, very chilly with a gusty north wind (temperatures in the 30s and wind chills a few degrees lower). Rain showers will mix and even change to snow in western Kansas. By early Sunday evening, there will be some snow in central Kansas too, but given the fact the ground is still warm and air temperatures will most likely be just above freezing, most of the flakes will melt. BUT... in mid October, this is strange. 

Major pattern shift next week!

We can all agree that dry weather is what we need right now. We finally get into that kind of pattern next week. And the second half of October, overall, looks drier for much of the Plains. Next week, the jet stream will shift to the northeast of Kansas, which will allow for sunshine and calming weather.

And just look what the longer range outlooks are showing. Just trace amounts of precipitation as we move through the last two weeks of October. We should see water levels returning to normal, but given the shorter days, it does take longer to dry out. So hang in there, a return to some nice, fall weather is expected very soon and our third week of October is looking nice. 

Just about finished, but here comes Sergio!

Just incredible amounts of rain since this latest storm started last Friday. Roads are flooded, ditches are full, the fall harvest is at a standstill, and many areas are like a sponge right now. 

Here are the storm totals as we have them through 7 a.m. Tuesday morning:

A few flakes of snow will fly in northwest Kansas tonight and some accumulation is possible on grassy areas. However, roads will be fine because ground temperatures are very warm still. 

Dry weather returns Wednesday/Thursday!

While the national media watches and talks about Michael hitting Florida, we are looking to Sergio. 

This is a hurricane churning through the Pacific as a category 1 storm. It will be into the Plains by Saturday. The system will be accelerating and arriving soon. What it will mean for Kansas is more rain. However, this system is moving fast (unlike the current storm) - so we shouldn't have to worry about major rains like we've seen lately. Most of the rain will happen Saturday. There is a chance we could have a few leftover sprinkles on Sunday (maybe mixed with a snow flurry or two), but this should be a system that will be here and gone in less than 24 hours. 

Frost/Freeze concerns early next week!

Colder air will be around to start next week and we could be looking at a frost or freeze in many areas. The growing season is about to end - but this would be about right on schedule for many parts of Kansas. 

Rainfall update (how much more?) - Early frost alert!

Good Monday morning. First, the rainfall amounts since all of this began late last week:
These numbers are through 7 a.m. Monday morning!
24 miles NW of Salina: 5.69"
Medicine Lodge: 4.13"
Dodge City: 3.99"
Hays: 3.30"
Hutch: 2.81"
Pratt: 2.10"
Salina: 2.00"
Garden City: 1.64"
Wichita (Eisenhower): 1.14"
Goodland: 0.93"

It's looking like another widespread 1-2 inches will be likely, with some areas in central and eastern Kansas possibly getting another 2.50 to 3". So if you are dealing with flooding now, please keep an eye on things because this storm isn't over yet. Rain chances won't be ending until late Tuesday evening.

Soon to be Hurricane Michael -

It's developing and strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico and pushing north. HOWEVER, our current wet storm in the Plains will scoop up the storm and shove it east pretty quickly. So I don't think this will be in the news for very long.

More wet & chilly weather coming!

Another wet storm could impact Kansas and the Plains next weekend (Oct. 12-13) - we will be providing updates on this one very soon. The track is a bit uncertain this far out. So it travels farther north, it could mean another round of heavy rains for all in Kansas. Farther south might spare some areas.

Potential frost:

Early next week, we could see some widespread frost in the Plains. This particular image is for Monday morning, Oct. 15th. So I'm sounding the early alarm that the growing season might be ending for some in about a week. Lots of chilly air moving south.