One of the factors we are closely monitoring are the ocean temperatures. If we go back three winters (2015) you can see how much of the globe was experiencing warmer than normal temperatures (especially in the ocean areas highlighted). The warm water puts a great deal of humidity (water vapor) into the air. If we turn cold, does this mean an increased chance for snow around this area?
Look at where we are now with global temperatures and notice the dramatic cooling around Australia. And it isn't nearly as warm in the Pacific Ocean. So in studying the ocean temperatures, we are beginning to unlock some clues as to what might be coming up for Kansas heading into the winter. It's not the only factor to consider. Other features at play include the Arctic Oscillation and of course, the strength of the El Nino that is expected for the winter too.
We will continue to look at the data for about another month and then make a prediction for the winter season. These are difficult forecasts to make, but we do the best we can with what's in front of us and then go with it. Last year we accurately predicted below normal snowfall for the winter and that was indeed what happened. It was another uneventful winter in most areas.
If your gut instinct is telling you this winter will be bad, maybe you are on to something. But we are still studying the data and hope to draw some conclusions soon.
Heading into next week:
We are still unlikely to see any big rain events. The pattern does shift around a bit and there are a few features coming through that might stir up some showers, but widespread, heavy rains are unlikely. And most of the week should have the faucet turned off. One time period that should have some rain is Wednesday. Right now, it's looking like some .25" to 0.50" for most areas, but we will have to continue to watch because a few spots might get a little more than that.
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