SpaceX trying again - summer setting in

I was so disappointed that SpaceX didn't get to follow through with the launch on Wednesday. If you look at the radar image below, it wasn't a huge surprise they had to cancel. I was a little surprised to learn Wednesday morning they had bumped up the likelihood of launch to 60% because the models were pretty set on scattered storms around that time.

Will it happen Saturday (now scheduled for 3:22 pm EDT)? 

Well, at least for right now, it's going to be tricky and perhaps another last minute decision. There will be another chance for scattered storms heading into the afternoon. There is a possibility that much of the rain will end up west of the Cape at launch time, but we will have to see. So much can change between now and Saturday afternoon.

The pattern does change, but rain chances aren't zero. 
High pressure does move into Oklahoma and western parts of Texas. That will certainly limit our chances of getting some rain, but doesn't eliminate it. Western and parts of northern Kansas will be located close to a warm front, and a few storms may pop up during the evening. Whatever does develop will be very isolated.

Have a great day. I will post a June outlook very soon. In the meantime, get ready for sunshine and some early summer weather.

Stuck in a rut - but a change is lining up

Hope you had a terrific Memorial Day weekend. Things are not back to normal yet, but there are some signs we are moving that way for now.

• Memorial Day weekend - unofficial start to summer
• June 1st - start of meteorological summer
• June 20 - official beginning to summer (Summer Solstice) - 4:43 pm

Our month of May has been a cool month. It will not make the top 10 coolest in Kansas, but much of the state has been below average on temperatures. Just look at the map below (updated through the 24th) and much of central and eastern Kansas is running 5-8° below average. 

And consider this for a moment:

The rest of this week:

We are stuck in a rut. There's an upper low pressure "L" swirling around over the central and southern Plains. I am posting the water vapor image to show the plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture that continues to stream up into Kansas. While we are NOT likely to get additional big rain, the chances are still out there for some very hit/miss type showers/storms. This setup is likely to stick around through at least Thursday, then a change is coming.

Pattern shift this weekend:

May is going to end mild - June starts out warm. Our first week of the new month will be spent under high pressure, so chances for moisture end and the heat begins to expand. I don't see record warmth, but in typical June fashion, chances of getting back up to near 90 will increase. 

Early June looks to start off dry. The pattern shown above isn't one that will bring much rain to this area. However, I do think June has a chance of being near to above normal on rain. So harvest may have some interruptions this year as we deal with some chances for storms in the middle of the month. 

Rainfall numbers and a look ahead to how much more

Just a quick moment to post some rainfall numbers from Thursday night - Friday morning:

There are still more chances coming Saturday evening, Sunday, and Monday:

Models continue to show heavier rains, including western Kansas, for Sunday evening. On Monday, the rain should shift a bit farther east.

Have a great Memorial Day weekend. May and I will be back on the air with you on Monday.

Severe threat Thursday - heavy rainfall potential

Severe weather chances are ramping up for parts of Kansas heading into the evening and overnight. It is the start of a very active stretch with chances of much needed moisture across the west. Although we do have multiple chances for storms, western Kansas will have to get the rain on round #1 because the other rounds of storms coming Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are going to be focused a bit farther east.

Thursday evening: A warm front will be in western Kansas and that's where the stronger storms are expected to fire. Other showers and storms farther east (closer to I-135) probably won't have the ingredients to do much more than produce small hail and heavy rains. It is something to watch, but we think the larger hail and wind threat is south of I-70 and across much of southwest Kansas.

Thursday overnight/early Friday: Heavy rains will be spreading south and east and catching areas in central Kansas. I don't know how much rain you would order up, but this won't be enough to erase drought.

Friday evening - there will be a few isolated storms along and east of I-135, but most of these should not be severe. There's going to be a great deal of warmth and humidity around to help fuel some of the storms.

There will be more chances coming on Sunday. The latest look at the rainfall potential map is still showing some very generous amounts - but for western Kansas, it really does need to happen Thursday night because what comes over the weekend will be focused a little farther east.

Solid drought buster in the making

Hope your week is off to a great start. Our weather is rather uneventful for at least another day or two, and then in typical holiday weekend fashion, thunderstorms will return to the Plains.

Right now, we are sandwiched in between a low pressure to the east and one to the west. This is a blocking pattern (much like a traffic jam) where nothing can move around and therefore there won't be much of a change in the weather through Wednesday.

The month of May has been relatively "cool" compared to the average. That has helped to keep the severe weather days in check. Look at the map below and you'll be able to see just how much of the country is experiencing below normal temperatures this month.

Thunderstorm chances begin: Wednesday night in the west

These won't likely be anything to worry about as they begin weakening almost as fast as they move into Kansas. My expectation is that they will be drying up as they move along, and whatever rain is out there, it will likely be scattered at best.

Thursday afternoon-night:

This time period has a pretty strong likelihood of developing some storms. And it most definitely wouldn't be a shock to see some strong or severe storms in this period. The rich, Gulf of Mexico moisture will be trying to push in during this time and that's what will help to setup the increased rain chance. Just look at the dew points (measure of how much moisture is in the air) and they are climbing into the 60s for many areas from Kansas south. When they get that high, you have more than enough moisture to get heavy rainfall and some severe weather.

Friday - could be some leftover showers early in the day, but most of the day is looking drier. Even into the evening and overnight, the chances for storms will be low. That could be one of the days in the holiday weekend that is mostly void of storms.

Saturday -

A few storms are possible moving into the evening and overnight. It is looking like the majority of storms will be in Nebraska and down in Oklahoma, but I'm fairly certain there will be some rain and thunder moving our way.

Sunday - A cold front is advancing across the state. This will run into some rich, Gulf moisture and we will likely be up against another round of storms focused mostly over the eastern 2/3 of the state.

I started showing this on the air Monday night, but adding up the potential of rain between Wednesday and Memorial Day is rather encouraging for areas that have been missed repeatedly. It's NOT a guarantee, but given the multiple chances for storms and the higher humidity moving into the area, we should have a good 5 day stretch with storm chances and locally heavy rains. Areas that have had quite a bit of rain in the last few weeks should monitor for flooding. 

Have a great day and thanks for coming by to read up on Kansas weather and how the holiday weekend will be impacted by storms. If you plan to camp this weekend, you'll want to be ready for some of this active weather.

Next round of rain... and look at what lies ahead

Hope everyone has a great weekend. The need for rain continues in many areas, but for most of south central and southeast Kansas, sunny skies can't return soon enough. Water rescues and flooding have been reported in the last couple of days and the threat of heavy rains isn't quite over yet.

This evening:
Here's where we are headed. More scattered storms will likely develop over central and southern Kansas. A few of these could be severe with some hail and gusty winds, but severe storms on a widespread scale isn't likely. Some stronger storms are possible into northwest Kansas during the evening, but I'm expecting them to weaken as they move along.

Saturday: The focus will shift to areas along and east of I-135. Some of the scattered storms that pop up will have heavy rains, but we aren't really expecting them to be big hail or wind makers.

We will get some calmer and drier weather into the start of next week. But for your planning purposes, heading into Memorial Day weekend, we will be right back into the threat of rain, storms, and maybe some severe potential. The timing could be an issue for those wanting to get out and camp and do some outdoor stuff. If you look at the setup shown below, that large low pressure on the west coast is expected to move toward the Plains, thus increasing the threat of storms.

Sneak peek into June:
And earlier this week I mentioned the potential of wet weather through June. Well, let me share this with you as we head into the weekend. Wheat harvest gets underway in June and many of us begin our summer vacationing and ramping up our time outside. It looks like we could see some very wet weather setting up across the Plains states. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN A COOLER SUMMER FOR MANY. I know some of you have been asking for a summer forecast. Well, if we get the kind of rain shown here, we will likely escape any potential of major, prolonged heat waves.

Heavy rains still a threat for many areas

We are getting an updated drought map today (Thursday) and while areas east of I-135 probably don't need any more rain now, we can't overlook the drought across the west. Erasing drought (as most of know) isn't something that happens overnight. We are seeing severe drought expanding to include almost all of southwest Kansas.

The next couple of nights should offer up hope of drought easing moisture. Storms should form in eastern Colorado and western Kansas and move east. I am very hopeful there's more rain in these storms than what our models have been showing. And unfortunately, southwest Kansas may not have that much rain coming, but we will see how things work out.

Severe threat Thursday evening:

This is mainly going to be in eastern Kansas. Some parts of southeast Kansas will have some hail and wind, but I am more concerned about flooding because these areas are saturated.

 

 

Overnight and into Friday:

 

More heavy rains are going to develop across central and western Kansas. These will move to the east and will NOT be severe, but offer up some good moisture in places that have been missed lately.

More good moisture coming Friday night into early Saturday. There's a storm in the upper atmosphere that will pivot through the area, so I'm feeling pretty confident that a good dose of rain will move out across western/central Kansas heading into Saturday morning. Again, not eliminating drought, but certainly helping out.

Potential rainfall through Saturday afternoon/evening

Once we hit Sunday, the pattern changes and there won't be any rain to speak of until later next week.

Speaking of that... I'm expecting more active weather just before the start of the Memorial Day weekend. We will dive into those details very soon. And wait until you see what the next 30-45 days has in store for the Plains...

Severe weather chances continue

The chances for severe weather are ongoing as this week continues. When we see a severe outlook map that has an enormous area highlighted, we have a tendency to think everyone in the shaded area will get rough weather. Wednesday is a classic case as much of central and eastern Kansas are highlighted, but you'll probably be able to count on one hand just how many strong to severe storms we will have. It's not really a fault of anyone - just the nature of the science and some uncertainty. However, we are confident there won't be a lot of active weather Wednesday evening.

Morning rain moves on to the northeast and the areas to watch will be just south or southeast of Dodge City. This area is favored for a few reasons:

• The sun will likely come out in this area by early afternoon
• It's closer to a dryline (separation of dry and humid air)
• It will be much warmer in this area, helping to give more fuel to storms

Once the storms get moving east, I think they will weaken quickly because ... they are moving into a cooler environment. So a few severe storms for a couple of hours and then I think we are finished for Wednesdays chance.

Thursday update:

The main focus still looks to be southeast of the Turnpike and mainly across eastern Kansas. So I don't think there's too much to worry about here. However, we are going to have to watch for some flooded areas to show up with the rain that keeps falling over eastern Kansas. 

There will be another area of rain coming from Colorado that will impact western Kansas heading into Friday morning. Those shouldn't be strong or severe, but instead, welcome moisture. I know the west is hurting for rain. Bring it on.

Friday:

Chances will continue for storms, however severe chances are very low. Given the cloudy sky and the fact that upper level winds over Kansas will be weaker, I don't think there's reason to worry about storms at the end of this week. Some heavy rain is possible and there will be a threat of flooding for areas east of I-135. The ground is very saturated farther east, so the extra rain isn't really needed right now.

How much rain?

As has been the case, most of it ends up in eastern Kansas and in the southeast. We will get some .50-1" amounts in western Kansas, but it won't end the drought. That will take many more rounds before we can do that. 

Severe weather chances as the week continues

This will likely end up being our most active week of weather that we've had all spring. I'm NOT saying we are going to have days and days of severe storms, but instead, several days of rain and thunder in the area. It sure hasn't felt like spring the last couple of days with such low afternoon temperatures. Seeing afternoon temperatures in the 40s Monday afternoon was weird to say the least.

Next chance for strong/severe storms: Wednesday early morning:

These will likely develop on the return of warmer air pushing back in from the south. Most of the storms will try to develop over central and southern Kansas, and once they do pop up, should move east or southeast. In these kinds of scenarios, large hail is usually the issue.

Wednesday evening:

This particular period will have a threat of hail, wind, and maybe a tornado. We will have to watch and see how much clearing we have late Wednesday afternoon and where the fronts setup. The severe threat might be a bit higher in Oklahoma, but there will be many areas across the Plains that have a threat.

Thursday evening - chances for southeast Kansas

A front will be sliding into areas southeast of the Turnpike during the evening, which will trigger some storms that could produce large hail and some wind. It will likely develop by 6 or 7 p.m. and then move to the east. A second batch of storms may be forming for eastern Colorado and western Kansas into the night. These could be some wind producing storms that move east.

Friday chances: 

The setup at the end of the week doesn't look that threatening in terms of damaging storms. There will be some more rain coming into Kansas and chances will be possible both morning and again into the overnight hours. The atmosphere will be pretty worked over by the end of this week and because the upper level winds begin to weaken some, severe chances aren't going to be that high by Friday or Saturday. We will need to watch for some localized areas of flooding.