Active, May pattern about to begin

Thanks for spending a few minutes catching up on what's next for Kansas weather. We had some brief encounters with some large hail on Monday in north central and northeast Kansas, but once again, the weather has calmed a bit.

A new drought map came out today (Thursday) and once again, we find ourselves in expanding drought due to the spotty nature of the recent rains. We've been fortunate to miss the severe weather, but we are also missing the needed spring rains. The abnormally "dry" weather has now grown to include all of central Kansas and conditions have worsened.

I can't promise BIG rains between now and the end of next week (May 16/17), BUT I will tell you the pattern changes next week to offer up multiple chances of storms. Recently, we've seen the upper level winds come from the northwest and that doesn't normally do us much good for widespread, soaking rainfall. Most of the time, big rains get pushed off to the south and east of Kansas. When the upper level winds go back to the west or southwest, we stand much better chances of getting some rain and it will increase the severe weather potential too. What areas may be at risk for severe storms aren't known this far out, but the combination of a southwest wind flow aloft and a slow moving front could be the culprits behind an increased risk of stronger storms.

Monday/Tuesday - These will NOT be severe storms. The setup favors cool, even chilly weather with passing rain showers. I think we are headed for highs in the 50s for a couple of days. Showers will target the west first (Sunday night/Monday)

Then the showers will be pushing farther east. We are anticipating most of the rain to stay across the south Monday/Tuesday. Amounts could be in that .25-.50" range for several areas, but a good inch or two seems UNLIKELY for the Monday/Tuesday time frame.

Once we hit Wednesday, that's when chances for some stronger storms will return to the Plains. And there will be more thunderstorm chances coming Thursday and Friday too. The map shown below is an early idea of what kind of rain amounts we may see next week (total). I don't think this will be enough to satisfy everyone or every area, but it's going to be more rain than some areas have seen recently.

To my mom and all the mother's out there, Happy Mother's Day and thanks for all you do every day.