Severe weather chances continue

The chances for severe weather are ongoing as this week continues. When we see a severe outlook map that has an enormous area highlighted, we have a tendency to think everyone in the shaded area will get rough weather. Wednesday is a classic case as much of central and eastern Kansas are highlighted, but you'll probably be able to count on one hand just how many strong to severe storms we will have. It's not really a fault of anyone - just the nature of the science and some uncertainty. However, we are confident there won't be a lot of active weather Wednesday evening.

Morning rain moves on to the northeast and the areas to watch will be just south or southeast of Dodge City. This area is favored for a few reasons:

• The sun will likely come out in this area by early afternoon
• It's closer to a dryline (separation of dry and humid air)
• It will be much warmer in this area, helping to give more fuel to storms

Once the storms get moving east, I think they will weaken quickly because ... they are moving into a cooler environment. So a few severe storms for a couple of hours and then I think we are finished for Wednesdays chance.

Thursday update:

The main focus still looks to be southeast of the Turnpike and mainly across eastern Kansas. So I don't think there's too much to worry about here. However, we are going to have to watch for some flooded areas to show up with the rain that keeps falling over eastern Kansas. 

There will be another area of rain coming from Colorado that will impact western Kansas heading into Friday morning. Those shouldn't be strong or severe, but instead, welcome moisture. I know the west is hurting for rain. Bring it on.

Friday:

Chances will continue for storms, however severe chances are very low. Given the cloudy sky and the fact that upper level winds over Kansas will be weaker, I don't think there's reason to worry about storms at the end of this week. Some heavy rain is possible and there will be a threat of flooding for areas east of I-135. The ground is very saturated farther east, so the extra rain isn't really needed right now.

How much rain?

As has been the case, most of it ends up in eastern Kansas and in the southeast. We will get some .50-1" amounts in western Kansas, but it won't end the drought. That will take many more rounds before we can do that.