October outlook

We are heading into October and the weather pattern is very dry & in my opinion - boring. That's not something we say very often about Kansas weather, but since the big storm at the beginning of September that produced rain (and some snow in the northwest), there just hasn't been much taking place in the Plains. 

 

October starts off cooler - Temperatures are going to be near to slightly below average to kick off the new month. However, it is NOT going to stay that way as you'll see in a second.

 

October 12-19 - Warmth from the west is going to spread into the central Plains AGAIN. It wouldn't be a total surprise if we talk record warmth again for a day or two during this particular week. Some areas might be 10-15 above normal.

 

Late October - Temperatures cool down again (by then, normal highs will be down into the 60s). I don't foresee anything really crazy, but I think the second half of the month will be cooling down quite a bit and we may end up with highs in the 50s and 60s. 

 

October Precipitation: I see the month (as a whole) being drier than normal. Considering we will go all the way through the first half of the month with virtually nothing for moisture, it will be a huge task to try and erase the deficits in the last 8-10 days of the month. However, that is the particular time frame where we will have our best chances at rain.

 

What else to look for in October?

Meteor Shower

We will have a meteor shower peaking on October 20-21... the Orionids. At the peak, you might be able to see about 20 per hour. 

Blue Moon

Happening on Halloween, it is the second full month in a single month. It will also be a Micro Full Moon because in its orbit, the moon will be at its farthest point from Earth. It might look a little less bright, but it will be hard to tell much of a difference compared to a regular full moon. 

We are waiting... and waiting...

Boring weather in Kansas is usually a rarity, but lately, it just hasn't been that exciting around here. Last week, we dealt with a blocking pattern that lead to several days of "no change" in the weather. This week, the blocking pattern is gone, but the tropical system Beta trapped all of the moisture near the Gulf coast and prevented us from getting any rain.

Temperatures WILL be changing. It looks hot to wrap up the week and our first weekend in fall will feel a tad more like summer. Much of the central and northern Plains will be above average (with normal highs in the upper 70s)

Next week temperatures (AFTER Monday) will look like this (normal goes to 78/79):

This kind of pattern (where upper level winds come from the northwest) shuts down the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. So the only substantial rain to speak of will be up around the Great Lakes. 

How soon will this dry pattern change? At this time, it probably won't happen until mid October. That's when the upper level winds may begin turning back to the west or southwest, but longer range models have REALLY struggled lately with the cool spells and rain chances (down the stretch), so stay tuned.

This year has been really strange. Lately, we've had a ton of smoke coming across our skies and there have been more than enough tropical systems too. Its been a clash of storms and smoke (as indicated by this satellite image from the past few weeks). 

Tropical systems have been wrapping in smoke from thousands of miles away and carrying it farther north and east. Smoke hasn't necessarily made the tropical storms stronger or weaker, but it sure does make for some interesting pictures from space (and on the ground as evidenced by the weird looking sunrise and sunsets from the past week)

How much longer with the smoke?

The haze over the Plains Thursday was pretty incredible and it will likely be something we are noticing all the way through the weekend. I don't ever remember a time when so much smoke traveled so far and inundated much of the country. Normally in Kansas, if we get smoke from western wildfires, it is around for a day and then passes. However, like everything else in 2020, this year is quite different with so many millions of acres burned. And due to the extreme heat and magnitude of the fires, the smoke has pushed almost into the stratosphere (the next layer of atmosphere above us) - roughly 12-15km in altitude.

How far has the smoke traveled?

This image shows the smoke has traveled across the Atlantic and reached Greenland, Iceland, and even to some degree, Europe.

Friday afternoon - smoke continues to filter down across the Rockies

Saturday afternoon - more smoke in many different areas

Sunday afternoon - it is still hanging around

We think the air quality will improve early next week when most of this gets pushed on to the southeast. And the Pacific Northwest should be getting some rain today (Friday) and again Saturday.

We will likely exhaust the list of names for tropical systems with Wilfred - expect to organize in the Gulf into the weekend.

This storm will likely hang out over the Gulf for many days to come and may not come on shore until the middle of next week. It is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend as it meanders over the warm water. How strong the storm may get isn't clear yet because we don't know how long it will remain over the Gulf. The storm will likely wrap the moisture up so well that any system tracking through Kansas (which won't be many) will have almost zero moisture to work with. Our forecast looks pretty dry into October. 

Have a great weekend.

The tropics are crazy right now

The tropics are about as active as you'll ever see at a particular time. Hurricane season peaks on September 10th, so just passing the halfway mark and we are nearly out of names for the 2020 season. 

Names are set six years in advance and as you have probably heard, names are ONLY retired if it is a historic storm. Otherwise, it gets thrown back into the bucket of names and can be used during a later year. 

Once the list of names is exhausted, they will move on to the Greek alphabet. If you are like me, you don't know the Greek alphabet all that well, so here it is for review. 

Kansas weather at a standstill:

We are dealing with a "block" in the weather pattern and it acts like a traffic jam. We have a "high" pressure over Wyoming with a "low" pressure to the south of Kansas. So given this situation, things aren't going to change until these systems dissolve. That should happen closer to the weekend, but even as it does, chances for moisture don't look promising at all. Once things start moving again, the big low pressure off the Pacific Northwest will head toward to the northern Rockies. It's going to help increase the winds here in Kansas, but rain is not something we will see much of through the weekend (or beyond). 

Here's the forecast for rainfall the next 10 days: little, if any.

Have a great day

Rainfall numbers & potential wildfire help soon

 What a great rain we had in Kansas. So many totals topping 1" in places that have gone more than a month without good moisture. Here's a look at some rain numbers coming in (they are storm total since Tuesday):

Our weather calms down into the weekend and next week will be about as quiet as it can be. We are talking sunshine, light breezes, and generally temperatures a few degrees below normal (not 30-35° below)

What we should watch is a shift coming in the pattern that will hopefully help the fire fight in California. The pictures, video, stories, etc. have been hard to watch and comprehend, but they are about to get some help from the weather. If the pattern sets up like we are seeing in the models, a storm will form off the coast and then move inland by Thursday or Friday. That shift in the wind will bring moisture from the Pacific back toward the coast and raise the relative humidity. There will also be an increasing chance of rain. 

The satellite images over California don't really do a justice to how bad the air quality is and what the skyline looks like. This thick smoke, mixed with the marine layer (clouds) is making for a murky mess and absolutely terrible for those with breathing problems. 

Will that western storm reach Kansas? That is something we are taking a look at, as one models says "yes", while another hints at it, but weakens it before really having much impact on our local weather. I'll update you on this soon. There won't be any rain in Kansas for our second full week of the month, but maybe we'll see something out of the California storm.

Wednesday records & rainfall update

What we are experiencing in Kansas is just incredible when you think about the fact summer hasn't officially ended yet. Temperatures this afternoon will be 30-40° below the average high temperature for early September. 

 

And look what happened this morning in Goodland:

Our focus will continue to be on the rain chances that extend through Friday. We still feel like the western half of Kansas could easily get an inch of much needed moisture (most of it coming today through early Thursday afternoon) Farther east, it may end up being in the 1-2" range (most of it coming Wed. night and Thursday). This is a SLOW moving storm that is hanging back toward the 4 Corners area.

• Low pressure winds blow counter-clockwise
• This is what is driving the rain from south to north, even though our winds down here at the ground continue to be from the north
• This low will start to push out by Friday

This is a near perfect setup for us right now (unless you are in the beginning stages of fall harvest, of course). If you look to the south in Texas, you can see there is a surplus of moisture yet that has to move north, which should be the biggest and most productive round of rain yet to move through.

 

This will hopefully help firefighters get an upper hand on the fires in Colorado. The Cameron Peak and Williams Fork fires have received moisture, but probably not enough to wipe out the concerns altogether. Once it dries off and warms up (by the weekend), fire concerns will once again be present. 

What concerns me for Kansas is that after this latest storm, we may not have much rain to forecast until late in the month (and for some it may not come until October). Just take a look at what the computer models are showing for moisture next week. Dry weather returns to the Plains as we wait for more cold fronts to move into the area. Stay tuned.

Will it be that cool next week?

I hope you have a great holiday weekend. I'm so baffled at the fact it's already the "unofficial end to summer" - but parts of 2020 have felt like a stand-still. 

Our computer models have REALLY struggled lately. We had confidence in a generous rain that should've happened earlier this week and it mostly went south into Oklahoma and Texas. 

A few places had some nice rain, but it wasn't as widespread as we had hoped. 

Your Labor Day weekend will be hot - but temperatures probably won't get hot enough to set records. It will be well above average, but as most of us know, early September can still be rather warm in Kansas. South winds will be gusting to 30-35 mph pretty much all weekend, especially on Sunday. 

The forecast models sometimes don't agree with each other, but in the latest look at what may happen for next week, they DO agree that VERY cool air will be arriving Monday night/Tuesday. Here's one model's forecast (GFS) for Tuesday temperatures.

Another model is showing this (European model):

So we have higher confidence that this change will have us getting sweatshirts and jackets out after the holiday weekend. And with it being WINDY on Tuesday, it will be quite the change for the Plains. 

What about the rain chances for next week? As I pointed out in the previous blog entry, when systems track into the area from the Rockies (especially northern Rockies), that's not usually a good setup for Kansas to get soaking rain. Why? Most moisture gets shunted off to the southeast of the area (as was the case with the previous storm)

So I highly suggest lowering expectations on rain for next week because this setup doesn't look favorable at the moment for good moisture. 

Have a terrific Labor Day!

September outlook

It's the start of meteorological fall (September, October, November) and we are nearing the time of year when so many things begin to change. The jet stream winds (about 20-30,000 feet above us) start getting stronger. We begin seeing much chillier air loading up in Canada and the far northern Plains, and it won't be long before higher elevations start getting snow. 

The month of September (according to averages) has numbers that look like this:

Temperatures: September (as a whole) will most likely be a bit cooler than normal for much of the central Plains and upper Midwest. I think the first half of the month is what will skew the temperatures to the cooler because the next 10-12 days will have some occasional bouts with VERY cool weather. In fact, the overall pattern suggests a "northwest wind flow aloft", which will continue to send some strong fronts our way.

Rainfall:

September isn't our wettest month out of the year (on average) and I don't see any way this month will have significant rains for Kansas. The "above average" that you are seeing in southeast Kansas and Oklahoma is largely skewed that direction because of the rain they are getting right now. My suspicion is that Kansas will have near normal moisture (which would be an inch or two) between now and the end of the month. If the timing is right, maybe it will come after all of the winter wheat is planted.  

Pattern: This is what the pattern looks like to kick off the month. When the upper level winds come from the northwest, chances for rain are usually slim. And this will likely be the setup for the next week - 10 days. I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but don't get your hopes too high for good rain because we will need a different setup than the one shown below if we are going to get a nice soaking. 

 In the meantime, enjoy some of the cooler weather that is lined up and ready to move toward Kansas down the stretch. Have a good day.