I hope you have a great holiday weekend. I'm so baffled at the fact it's already the "unofficial end to summer" - but parts of 2020 have felt like a stand-still.
Our computer models have REALLY struggled lately. We had confidence in a generous rain that should've happened earlier this week and it mostly went south into Oklahoma and Texas.
A few places had some nice rain, but it wasn't as widespread as we had hoped.
Your Labor Day weekend will be hot - but temperatures probably won't get hot enough to set records. It will be well above average, but as most of us know, early September can still be rather warm in Kansas. South winds will be gusting to 30-35 mph pretty much all weekend, especially on Sunday.
The forecast models sometimes don't agree with each other, but in the latest look at what may happen for next week, they DO agree that VERY cool air will be arriving Monday night/Tuesday. Here's one model's forecast (GFS) for Tuesday temperatures.
Another model is showing this (European model):
So we have higher confidence that this change will have us getting sweatshirts and jackets out after the holiday weekend. And with it being WINDY on Tuesday, it will be quite the change for the Plains.
What about the rain chances for next week? As I pointed out in the previous blog entry, when systems track into the area from the Rockies (especially northern Rockies), that's not usually a good setup for Kansas to get soaking rain. Why? Most moisture gets shunted off to the southeast of the area (as was the case with the previous storm)
So I highly suggest lowering expectations on rain for next week because this setup doesn't look favorable at the moment for good moisture.
Have a terrific Labor Day!
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