September outlook

It's the start of meteorological fall (September, October, November) and we are nearing the time of year when so many things begin to change. The jet stream winds (about 20-30,000 feet above us) start getting stronger. We begin seeing much chillier air loading up in Canada and the far northern Plains, and it won't be long before higher elevations start getting snow. 

The month of September (according to averages) has numbers that look like this:

Temperatures: September (as a whole) will most likely be a bit cooler than normal for much of the central Plains and upper Midwest. I think the first half of the month is what will skew the temperatures to the cooler because the next 10-12 days will have some occasional bouts with VERY cool weather. In fact, the overall pattern suggests a "northwest wind flow aloft", which will continue to send some strong fronts our way.

Rainfall:

September isn't our wettest month out of the year (on average) and I don't see any way this month will have significant rains for Kansas. The "above average" that you are seeing in southeast Kansas and Oklahoma is largely skewed that direction because of the rain they are getting right now. My suspicion is that Kansas will have near normal moisture (which would be an inch or two) between now and the end of the month. If the timing is right, maybe it will come after all of the winter wheat is planted.  

Pattern: This is what the pattern looks like to kick off the month. When the upper level winds come from the northwest, chances for rain are usually slim. And this will likely be the setup for the next week - 10 days. I'm not trying to be pessimistic, but don't get your hopes too high for good rain because we will need a different setup than the one shown below if we are going to get a nice soaking. 

 In the meantime, enjoy some of the cooler weather that is lined up and ready to move toward Kansas down the stretch. Have a good day.