Can we declare winter dead now?

After a decent stretch of cold weather recently in Kansas, some are already asking if winter is now behind us. This month of February isn't likely to rank anywhere in the top 10 with respect to warmest or coldest. Warm days have pretty much offset the cold spells that we've had. 

Let's do a quick reset on where we stand on snow heading into early March. Northwest Kansas has really noticed a significant loss of snow this season. I think we could also lump central and northern Kansas into that as well (very low snowfall amounts this season). Farther south, snow amounts are basically on track for what's considered "average"

March normal stats look like this:

Is winter all over?

One might believe that with our first 5-6 days of March looking so warm. The pattern does switch around and allow for March to start above average on temperatures. The center of the warmth will be in the central and northern Plains. However, I am seeing at least one, if not two more cold snaps lining up for the Plains. It won't be as drastic as the ones we had in February of course, but there's still cold weather coming. And it will likely happen before mid-March. (keep scrolling down to see the map)

Early March - warm:

March 9-15:

Our first March storm may be in sight:

There is potential the first weekend of the new month may have our next chances for rain and snow. Right now, we are looking at either Saturday night or Sunday for our chances to increase. Unless something dramatic changes, this is most likely going to be rain for much of the state.

Precipitation- the month as a whole - near to slightly below normal. 

Remember, March is not (on average) a very wet month anyway. Sure, we start getting more opportunities for spring rains, but average moisture isn't much more than an inch for much of the state. Looking at the setup right now, I would venture to say most of our rain and/or snow will come in the middle of the month. (Good timing for Spring Break, right?) There may be some other chances right at the end of the month too, but mid-March might be the most active weather we see in the upcoming month. 

Thanks for spending a few minutes here. Spring is in sight and let's hope for some good rain soon.

Major cold blast; nearby ice storm, and snow

Our last full week of February AND last full week of meteorological winter. Spring is in sight, but we have to plow through this week first. And what a week this is going to be with some major whiplash in the temperatures. 

First off, no record highs expected today in Kansas as we would need a closer encounter with 80° and that doesn't seem likely at all. Here are the records:

Almost as impressive as the temperatures Monday afternoon will be the drop felt Tuesday morning. Just look at some of these numbers:

There is some concern of a little freezing drizzle in north central and northeast Kansas very early in the day Tuesday. What does develop will probably move northeast and be gone before noon - no ice accumulations expected:

And then consider the wind chill forecast:

There's also a setup that could lead to some light snow in northwest Kansas and adjacent areas of Colorado and Nebraska Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. No snow accumulations are expected during that time in Kansas.

If we had snow on the ground, we would likely be forecasting some record low temperatures for the region, but that's not something we will probably experience here.

A rather significant ice storm could be in the works for areas just south in Oklahoma - two different waves of moisture coming in from the south will lead to potential power outages and tree damage. Those purple areas are close to 1" of ice:

Since we are still so deep in the cold air Wednesday and Thursday, the moisture that comes at us from the southwest is likely to be all snow for Kansas. The only issue is that because it's so cold, this should be a powdery snow - with very limited moisture content to it. It's still early to say how much, but it's probably not going to be anything to write home about. It would appear to be more along the lines of a 1-2 inch snow, but we should wait a bit longer to really say with any high level of certainty. 

Have a great day and get ready for the COLD!!

Winter storm #3 in 4 weeks

This upcoming winter storm has given us a ton of different looks in the computer models. At one point last week, it looked like we might get mainly rain, then some snow on the back side of it all. Now that we are closer to the event, it looks like rain, some ice, and finishing off with snow. Our forecasting accuracy tends to improve once the low pressure system actually forms, and it gets off the ocean. We are better able to sample the system with weather balloons, which in turns makes the models more accurate. However, this storm is throwing a curve ball at us with various models hinting at higher amounts. As a meteorologist, we need to sort through all of it and get you the most reliable forecast. That's what our group has done, and we believe the highest totals will stretch from around Wichita, along and just south of the Turnpike.

Latest snow map:

The precipitation should start as rain and some thunderstorms will be heard mainly in south central and southeast Kansas. It shouldn't take too long to get this all changed over to snow, so in south central Kansas, it is safe to expect liquid, then some brief sleet or some freezing rain, then all snow (by 3 or 4am). Farther west (basically west of Pratt), it's going to be all snow.

Ice accumulation: 

Should be very limited and definitely NOT enough to cause power outages or bring down tree branches. I think if anything, it's more sleet than freezing rain.

9PM Wednesday:

2AM Thursday:

6AM:

9AM:

I think this will be a wetter snow compared to recent storms. Given the temperatures, I think we will be closer to a 10" = 1" of liquid moisture. All in, precipitation amounts could be in the .50"-1" range for the areas that get heavier snow. I wish this could be more widespread, but the storm will end up being just too far south.

Post-President's Day storm:

We hinted at this in the previous blog, but we do expect another system to setup next week. Once again, a low pressure forms in the southwest and looks to eject into the Plains during the middle of the week. It is becoming more evident that whatever moisture we might get with the storm is probably going to be frozen. Cold air takes over Tuesday with a front coming in, so whatever falls is likely going to be snow.  

Have a great day. I know winter is probably getting old, but given all of the 60° days we've had, we can't complain too much. We just need MOISTURE! 

Identifying two storms in the not so distant future

Thanks for spending a few minutes here catching up on Kansas weather. Recently, we've had three winter systems in four weeks - and now we are gearing up for potentially two more before February comes to a close. 

Here's a quick drought recap:

February 3rd

February 10th:

There hasn't been much change in Kansas lately. We've seen a bit of expansion in the "moderate" drought across north central Kansas. Elsewhere, things remain about the same. Really, really dry despite the fact we've had some snow. It just doesn't melt down to enough water to make a huge impact.

The next system comes into the desert Southwest and hooks up with Gulf of Mexico humidity. It's just the right kind of thing you want to see when you are as dry as we are, but if the track of the storm doesn't cooperate, we will be missed. Yet again, lots of variables here that can either go just right, or terribly wrong. Look at the map below and find the lime green to dark green from Missouri south to the Gulf coast. 

There's your moisture supply coming this way. It is a little concerning to see most of it shunted off to the east. That's something we will closely consider as the system moves into the area.

The forecast track has been bobbling back and forth. Saturday models runs were WAY too far south and it didn't look promising. Sunday model runs were back north again, looking more like snow for Kansas, but biggest precipitation was still off to the southeast.

Initial moisture:

Likely rain to a rain/snow mix for areas along and southeast of the Turnpike. This will form right along the advancing cold front.

Snow kicks in: Wed. night/Thursday AM

As the main storm kicks into Oklahoma, the chance for snow ramps up for southern Kansas and across most of Oklahoma. This is the track we are closely watching. More times than not, winter storm tracks gradually shift north, but not always. If it could shift 100-200 miles farther north, it would be a huge help in terms of getting more moisture to fall over Kansas. Take a look at the map: 6am Thursday. Notice all that moisture southeast of us? That's why if we can get the track to shift, our likelihood of substantial precipitation would dramatically increase. 

We still don't know about snow amounts yet, but if nothing were to change in the models between now and Thursday, southern Kansas would get most of the snow (and whatever rain is to be had too)

Possible 2nd storm later in the month:

We don't know much about it yet, but computer models have suggested another possible wide impact storm may come through our area in the last full week of the month (sometime after President's Day). I point this out because if the storm this week (arriving Feb. 17th) turns out to be a miss or a dud, we have something else to set our sights on before the month is over. And there's still a good mix of warm and cold days yet to come - stay tuned. 

Have a terrific day. 

Early look at the next storm - will there be much cold air?

At this time last year, we were right in the middle of one of the longest sub-freezing spells in years. This was the map posted exactly a year ago. Notice how far south that freezing line had made it - only to go even farther south a few days after this map went up. 

This year is quite different. Despite the couple of cold fronts passing through, we just aren't seeing much of a change in temperatures. The second front of the week is coming on through Wednesday night and the best it can do is cool things down about 5. Our latest model data gives Kansas a few sprinkles, and that's it. 

We are still headed for a windy day Friday with a much stronger front coming on through. Grass fire danger will once again be high to even extreme with gusts likely topping 30 in most areas. 

Our next best chance for precipitation:

The next storm of significance still looks to take shape middle of next week. Right now, there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to where the system will go after it forms. A farther south track would keep most, if not all, of the moisture away from Kansas (which is what one model shows right now). If it can track across Oklahoma or northern sections of Texas, we would have a shot at what looks to be some nice precipitation. 

As the system enters the area, it will be encountering very mild air. Therefore, it may be more of a rain maker than snow, but we won't know for a few more days yet. There's always the concern of temperatures near freezing, which could lead to a heavy wet snow that piles up quickly. 

What's interesting is that there may NOT be much cold air filling in behind the system. While it could be cold enough for some snow, it is very unlikely that we would be headed for a two-week spell of bitter cold. Long range models would keep temperatures at or above average, so I wouldn't worry about seeing a return of Arctic air as the mid-week system (next week) departs. 

Have a great day.

February calm - maybe a post Valentines Day storm

Hope you had a great weekend. Plenty of winter last week with the wind, cold, and snow. As of Sunday afternoon, the satellite picture shown below indicates what areas still have some melting to do. There's not too much left in Kansas (other than some deep drifts in ditches), but areas east will take a bit more time to melt it all away. 

The setup this week looks very different and unfortunately, there isn't much out there to help areas that were missed by last weeks moisture. The pattern we are looking at this week is one that we saw OFTEN in December, so the forecast isn't anything earth shattering. It's very boring though - no big temperature swings and no good chances at precipitation. Other than some sprinkles or a brief encounter with flurries, it's quiet. 

Upper-level winds will be coming out of the northwest = DRY!!

In this setup, there will be a couple of cold fronts zipping through the area. However, no moisture to work with means no rain or snow. The Arctic air is also shut off for now, so we really look to have a pretty warm week by February standards.

One front in particular to watch packing some MUCH colder air should arrive Friday night. 

I don't think the setup is there for widespread snow, but we could end up with a few hours of snow flurries skirting northwest Kansas. This isn't much of a system, so I don't look for the forecast to change much as the week continues. 

Could we have a post-Valentine's Day storm?

This looks to be the next chance at something more exciting that just wind and a few clouds. Our winter systems have been so few and far between this season. Right now, we wait to see if something will form out near the 4 Corners area in the middle of next week. Most of the winter systems this year have been coming at us from the northwest, so if the one next week can drop farther south, chances for moisture will ramp up. Until then, enjoy the great weather we have on tap for Kansas. 

Winter storm wrap - February outlook

The month of February gets a kickstart from a winter storm with some badly needed moisture. A quick wrap up of the snow totals from around the state: 

I think it's safe to say that if you had 4-6 inches of snow, you probably ended up with about a .30" of moisture. It was a fairly dry snow, so we're not going to see much change in the drought situation, but at least we had something. 

The new drought map coming out this week (which takes into account the BIG snow from western KS last week) looks like this - some minor improvement in the areas just south of Goodland, but still moderate drought continues. 

Next week:

We now shift gears into a northwest wind pattern aloft. And that's unlikely to bring any moisture for our first full week of February. No snow or rain on the way next week - just more of what we've already had this winter. Temperatures will probably average out to near normal when the first week wraps up. Looks like mostly 40s and 50s for highs around the state, but Tuesday and next Friday could have 60s.

February (on average) is one of our snowiest months of the year. See the numbers below, but for Dodge City and Wichita, if no more snow fell this month, we'd be close to our monthly average. Let's hope for something between now and then. 

Next 8-10 days for Kansas and surrounding areas: Dry

The pattern is shifting again and not likely to bring any substantial moisture back to this area for at least the next 8-10 days. This is a result of the northwest wind pattern mentioned above.

Maybe some hopeful signs later in February:

If we are going to have more snow (and or rain), it would most likely show up in the second half of the month. It could be that we see another winter storm coming through the area later in February, but whether it's a glancing blow for Kansas or a direct hit, we will have to wait and see. 

Another turn to bitter cold should happen later in the month too.

Models have been pretty persistent in keeping the cold air train coming - and this may hang on into early March as well. I would expect after a brief warm spell taking us into mid-February, things will take a turn for the colder. At least at that point in time, spring will be less than one month away, right?

Stay warm!