Can we declare winter dead now?

After a decent stretch of cold weather recently in Kansas, some are already asking if winter is now behind us. This month of February isn't likely to rank anywhere in the top 10 with respect to warmest or coldest. Warm days have pretty much offset the cold spells that we've had. 

Let's do a quick reset on where we stand on snow heading into early March. Northwest Kansas has really noticed a significant loss of snow this season. I think we could also lump central and northern Kansas into that as well (very low snowfall amounts this season). Farther south, snow amounts are basically on track for what's considered "average"

March normal stats look like this:

Is winter all over?

One might believe that with our first 5-6 days of March looking so warm. The pattern does switch around and allow for March to start above average on temperatures. The center of the warmth will be in the central and northern Plains. However, I am seeing at least one, if not two more cold snaps lining up for the Plains. It won't be as drastic as the ones we had in February of course, but there's still cold weather coming. And it will likely happen before mid-March. (keep scrolling down to see the map)

Early March - warm:

March 9-15:

Our first March storm may be in sight:

There is potential the first weekend of the new month may have our next chances for rain and snow. Right now, we are looking at either Saturday night or Sunday for our chances to increase. Unless something dramatic changes, this is most likely going to be rain for much of the state.

Precipitation- the month as a whole - near to slightly below normal. 

Remember, March is not (on average) a very wet month anyway. Sure, we start getting more opportunities for spring rains, but average moisture isn't much more than an inch for much of the state. Looking at the setup right now, I would venture to say most of our rain and/or snow will come in the middle of the month. (Good timing for Spring Break, right?) There may be some other chances right at the end of the month too, but mid-March might be the most active weather we see in the upcoming month. 

Thanks for spending a few minutes here. Spring is in sight and let's hope for some good rain soon.