Early look at the next storm - will there be much cold air?

At this time last year, we were right in the middle of one of the longest sub-freezing spells in years. This was the map posted exactly a year ago. Notice how far south that freezing line had made it - only to go even farther south a few days after this map went up. 

This year is quite different. Despite the couple of cold fronts passing through, we just aren't seeing much of a change in temperatures. The second front of the week is coming on through Wednesday night and the best it can do is cool things down about 5. Our latest model data gives Kansas a few sprinkles, and that's it. 

We are still headed for a windy day Friday with a much stronger front coming on through. Grass fire danger will once again be high to even extreme with gusts likely topping 30 in most areas. 

Our next best chance for precipitation:

The next storm of significance still looks to take shape middle of next week. Right now, there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to where the system will go after it forms. A farther south track would keep most, if not all, of the moisture away from Kansas (which is what one model shows right now). If it can track across Oklahoma or northern sections of Texas, we would have a shot at what looks to be some nice precipitation. 

As the system enters the area, it will be encountering very mild air. Therefore, it may be more of a rain maker than snow, but we won't know for a few more days yet. There's always the concern of temperatures near freezing, which could lead to a heavy wet snow that piles up quickly. 

What's interesting is that there may NOT be much cold air filling in behind the system. While it could be cold enough for some snow, it is very unlikely that we would be headed for a two-week spell of bitter cold. Long range models would keep temperatures at or above average, so I wouldn't worry about seeing a return of Arctic air as the mid-week system (next week) departs. 

Have a great day.