First severe storm setup of the spring season

Just over a week into spring and we have our first encounter with severe storms in the state. There have been so many big days already in the south with the tornadoes last week hitting New Orleans rated an EF3. As we approach the end of March, we would expect the nationwide tornado count to be somewhere around 200, and right now, we are near 250. In fact, when looking back at the data since 2005, this is the 4th most tornadoes (to date) since 2005. When the season ramps up this quickly, there is a tendency for above average tornados (across the country). 

You can see in the graph below how this year (which is displayed by the red line) compares to recent years.

Setup for Tuesday:

Favored areas will be east of I-135 - hail and wind potential is the biggest threat.

Limiting factors will be the amount of humidity in the air. Usually on days with higher impact severe weather in Kansas, dew point temperatures (measure of moisture in the air) will be much higher than 60°. However, dew points in the 50s can get you some hail and wind - but the magnitude of severe weather is not as high. 

Timing of storms looks to be after 5pm, and by 10pm-12am, most of it will be in eastern Kansas and on the way out. 

Early Wednesday - few showers and just a little bit of snow mixed with the rain. No snow accumulations. 

Forecast rainfall: Safe to say it's not going to be what we had last week. Most of us will end up with less than .25", with higher amounts near thunderstorms in eastern Kansas. 

Another chance for some rain late in the week:

I'm not that impressed with the Friday system coming through Kansas. It's weak and not very organized - but we might be able to squeeze out some scattered rainfall for the area. Set your expectations for rain low - if we get something from it, amounts will likely be under .20"

There is hope for more rain early next week:

This is a 10 day rainfall forecast (compared to average) that takes us through April 7th. While we aren't ending drought any time soon, enough precipitation may occur just to keep things moving along. Western Kansas continues to look fairly dry - even though some rain will take place into early April. Heavier amounts (as they normally do) will end up farther east. 

Incredible rainfall & some snow

Last week's storm provided some nice moisture for Kansas and I think most of us were generally pleased - but also understood that more is needed to continue the effort toward easing drought.

This big system lifting out of the south is going to provide widespread rain (and some snow) before it clears the central Plains. 

Heaviest will come Monday afternoon - overnight with lighter precipitation Tuesday. 

Snow forecast:

This round of snow will probably be like the last batch we had.

• Mainly on grassy areas
• Blowing snow likely
• Roads wet or slushy
• Accumulations may last for hours - not days

Any snow that falls during the day is likely going to melt as ground temperatures continue to warm up. Temperatures should be near or above 32°, so I don't expect too many issues out there on Kansas roads. 

 Severe weather ramping up in the southern Plains/Gulf coast:

The next few days will be quite busy with severe storms and potential tornadoes in the South. First, it will be Texas that catches the brunt of hail/wind, and then by Tuesday, the threat increases farther east. 

Tuesday outlook:

Have a great day and enjoy the rain. 

Are we really getting snow and more active weather arriving soon!

This next system coming across the central and southern Plains will produce rain, thunder, and everybody's favorite in mid-March, snow. This will be a case of just barely cold enough to get snow, but we are going to have some in Kansas Thursday and early Friday. I'm expecting these will be big flakes and might cover the grass for awhile - but it won't be around for very long. Snow that falls during the day will likely melt shortly after it comes down, but the snow that falls during the night might accumulate a bit more. I would expect 1-3" at this time, but we will need to watch this system. At least we are getting the moisture.

Best chances for snow will happen in these areas:

Thursday afternoon:

Thursday evening:

Thursday night:

Here's how much rain/overall moisture:

Next big system coming early next week: Severe Chance is Low

We are closely watching for another big system to come out of the west at the beginning of next week, which should put our area in a chance for some heavier rain again. I did mention thunderstorms in my update the other day, but I'm starting to think our severe chances will be fairly low, given that temperatures will be somewhat cool AND the richer Gulf moisture (dew points above 60°) will be well to our south. 

High dew points are usually necessary in order to get threats of severe storms, BUT - this doesn't mean we won't get some nice rain. Just take a look:

While it's not a guarantee at this time, it does come from one of the more reliable computer models as of late. Tough to curb your excitement about this, but if the track of the storm doesn't shift too much, we should be in the running for some drought easing precipitation. 

Have a great day.

Probably not drought busting, BUT this looks better

It sure feels like March is flying by, doesn't it? Roughly halfway through the month and spring is now less than a week away. It starts on Sunday at 10:33 AM (if you're needing the specifics).

First things first - last week melted snow provided some welcome moisture, but I think we can all agree, it wasn't near enough and doesn't really help in the long run. Grateful for what we had - still on the hunt for more. The next system is due to arrive Thursday/Friday, and interestingly enough, this one should be all rain. 

There may be some opportunity for a rain/snow mix in FAR northwest Kansas early Thursday, but it's not likely to turn out to be anything beyond that. 

Here's a quick snapshot of how much rain from the late week system:

Unfortunately for western Kansas, it's likely going to be well under .50" (maybe not even .25") while central and eastern Kansas may get to .50". Best chances should come Thursday evening and into the night.

All of the rain is likely to depart before Friday afternoon. 

A second, much larger system could be on its heels. We are closing looking at a system that is due in the following week (perhaps Monday/Tuesday). This one looks quite strong. Upper level winds increase, the moisture is there, slow moving - now we just need it to perform and have an ideal track.

Here's the upper level wind field Monday (March 20):

The important detail here is just how strong the jet stream looks  - see the yellow and brown colors coming into the Plains? This should be a pretty potent low pressure system, which can be quite helpful in producing heavier rains (if the track doesn't get too far north). 

Here's a preview of where the rain could be Monday afternoon - from Nebraska to Texas, with good Gulf of Mexico connection. See the snow in the Rockies? I don't think very much of that - if any, will come into Kansas, but it is something to watch.

All of this leading me up to this graphic - how much rain over the next two weeks? While this isn't going to wipe away the drought in Kansas, we have to start somewhere. It is usually a long road in drought recovery, but spring is a good time to make a dent. The system coming early next week could provide some of the heaviest rain not seen in many months. 

Have a great day. I'll keep you updated on what we are seeing with respect to severe weather chances - which may be back next week for a few areas of the Plains. 

Not one, not two, but THREE different systems

It doesn't seem to be all that popular, but widespread snow will come through the Plains with what is likely to be the last winter storm for Kansas this season. I know - it can snow on Easter and we've seen snow in April before too. We've even seen snow in May. The pattern setup moving into mid/late March looks warmer than average, so I'm banking on this upcoming system being our last good snow for Kansas this winter.

The actual amount of liquid we'll get out of this system could be around .30-.40" in the heaviest snows across the north. Obviously, that doesn't move the drought needle much, but it's better than talking about fires and strong winds.

2nd System - Monday:

This little feature isn't much to write home about. Moving fast and probably not much more than just trace amounts (if that). We'll get some clouds and a shift in winds off of it, but like so many others in recent months, it approaches Kansas from the northwest and blows through quickly. I'm expecting this to be here and gone before we know it - NO cold air coming with it means we will warm right back up.

3rd System - late next week:

We are seeing some agreement in the models that indicates another low pressure system coming through the southwest just over a week from now. In another month, this could be a potential big severe weather maker for Kansas, but since the temperatures still look a bit cool, it may limit the severe thunderstorm potential a bit. But we need rain!! I won't make any promises this many days out, but we do have something in the 8-10 day time frame that at least shows potential. All we can do is hope - but this is an encouraging sign.

Here's a snapshot from Thursday evening (St Patrick's Day - so maybe the luck of the Irish will help). If this verifies, rain and some thunder would move up from the south. There's still plenty of time to watch and see how this may evolve, but definitely some potential.

Have a good day.

One more Arctic blast & snow - then more spring

The fast-moving Sunday storm was pretty amazing in the fact that it produced lightning, rain, sleet, small hail, and heavy wet snow. Someone in our shop the other day called it the "kitchen sink" of storms since we had a little bit of everything. Regardless of precip type - it was just nice to get some moisture. 

Here's some quick snowfall reports:

And the amounts of precipitation (melted snow, ice, and rain combined)

There's another big push of bitter cold coming south later in the week. If all goes according to plan, this is the last blast of Arctic air before spring. We can do this!! It's going to hit Wednesday night/Thursday and temperatures will drop pretty quickly. Let's call it a two day event - and then it starts to slowly moderate.

Temperatures Thursday:

Temperatures Friday:

It also appears we are going to get some snow - with only a minimal chance at some rain (which will be very brief before the cold takes over). That would be along and north of I-70.

North central and northwest Kansas get the first shot at snow Wednesday night. Different models have different ideas on how much, but if there's going to be accumulations, it would most likely happen in the northwest.

Thursday night and into Friday, we expect a much larger area of LIGHT snow to overspread the rest of Kansas. Given the temperatures that are forecast for this time period, this will likely end up being more of a dry, powdery snow - without much benefit to grass and winter wheat crops. 

It does not appear that we are going to get that much snow. Highest totals will probably come from northern Kansas - most of that coming Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maybe we will get some 2-4 inch amounts, but farther south, it should be less than that.

Second full week of March - warmer

A return to more traditional spring kind of weather returns next week. You can see the average temperatures are expected to be 5-10° above - we will likely end up with mostly 60s and 70s.

Rainfall - doesn't look very promising on a large scale

Most of it will likely pass north and east of Kansas during the second full week of the month. We are always on the lookout for something promising down the road, but for now, most of these low pressure systems passing through haven't been much help. 

Have a great day.

More signs of winter - some moisture looming

I know this will be the least popular discussion, especially after a solid week of mild weather. We've had record threatening temperatures and weather that would trick you into thinking spring is here now. But it's risky to get overly ambitious about spring chores because March usually has some wild swings.

Before we get to the talk of colder weather, we have a storm system coming through Sunday. It's going to have some moisture to work with but set expectations low because for much of central and western Kansas, this won't amount to very much. Sunday afternoon will have some rain showers (mostly south central and southeast), and as it gets colder into the evening, a few hours of a rain/snow mix look possible along the I-135 corridor. If we get some snow accumulations, it would be fairly minimal. All of the precipitation is going to push to the northeast and clear the area before dawn Monday.

Forecast amounts:

A brief chilly spell is coming up at the beginning of next week. Much of the region will likely have highs in the 40s Monday. This is a very brief stint with colder than normal weather. And the air that is coming in is NOT Arctic - so we should bounce back from it pretty quickly.

Cold Air is Coming!

It may be our last blast of Arctic air for the season, but my suspicion is that it will show up later next week. Take a look at the temperature forecast heading into the weekend (March 12/13). Now that we are so close to spring, this will likely yield highs in the 30s (not the teens and 20s that we had in February)

Frustration keeps growing around the precipitation (or lack thereof). I know things are dire in a bunch of places, but I still don't see a big shift toward "rainy" weather soon. Here's a different kind of map I haven't posted on here much before. It's the probability of getting .50" of moisture OR more between now and March 19th:

It's not very encouraging right now with respect to rain. But we will continue to wait, watch, and see what starts developing down the road. I think it's going to be a tall order to get good rains in the next 30-45 days. I'm not going to give up hope though, especially with a weakening La Nina. 

Next week is Severe Weather Awareness Week in Kansas. The statewide tornado drill will take place on Tuesday, March 8th at 10am. There will be other topics throughout the week to help us get ready for the season, which as we know could start at anytime now that March is here. However, my expectation is that severe weather season (as has been the case the last few years) will be delayed due to the colder weather that is expected down the stretch.