More signs of winter - some moisture looming

I know this will be the least popular discussion, especially after a solid week of mild weather. We've had record threatening temperatures and weather that would trick you into thinking spring is here now. But it's risky to get overly ambitious about spring chores because March usually has some wild swings.

Before we get to the talk of colder weather, we have a storm system coming through Sunday. It's going to have some moisture to work with but set expectations low because for much of central and western Kansas, this won't amount to very much. Sunday afternoon will have some rain showers (mostly south central and southeast), and as it gets colder into the evening, a few hours of a rain/snow mix look possible along the I-135 corridor. If we get some snow accumulations, it would be fairly minimal. All of the precipitation is going to push to the northeast and clear the area before dawn Monday.

Forecast amounts:

A brief chilly spell is coming up at the beginning of next week. Much of the region will likely have highs in the 40s Monday. This is a very brief stint with colder than normal weather. And the air that is coming in is NOT Arctic - so we should bounce back from it pretty quickly.

Cold Air is Coming!

It may be our last blast of Arctic air for the season, but my suspicion is that it will show up later next week. Take a look at the temperature forecast heading into the weekend (March 12/13). Now that we are so close to spring, this will likely yield highs in the 30s (not the teens and 20s that we had in February)

Frustration keeps growing around the precipitation (or lack thereof). I know things are dire in a bunch of places, but I still don't see a big shift toward "rainy" weather soon. Here's a different kind of map I haven't posted on here much before. It's the probability of getting .50" of moisture OR more between now and March 19th:

It's not very encouraging right now with respect to rain. But we will continue to wait, watch, and see what starts developing down the road. I think it's going to be a tall order to get good rains in the next 30-45 days. I'm not going to give up hope though, especially with a weakening La Nina. 

Next week is Severe Weather Awareness Week in Kansas. The statewide tornado drill will take place on Tuesday, March 8th at 10am. There will be other topics throughout the week to help us get ready for the season, which as we know could start at anytime now that March is here. However, my expectation is that severe weather season (as has been the case the last few years) will be delayed due to the colder weather that is expected down the stretch.