Probably not drought busting, BUT this looks better

It sure feels like March is flying by, doesn't it? Roughly halfway through the month and spring is now less than a week away. It starts on Sunday at 10:33 AM (if you're needing the specifics).

First things first - last week melted snow provided some welcome moisture, but I think we can all agree, it wasn't near enough and doesn't really help in the long run. Grateful for what we had - still on the hunt for more. The next system is due to arrive Thursday/Friday, and interestingly enough, this one should be all rain. 

There may be some opportunity for a rain/snow mix in FAR northwest Kansas early Thursday, but it's not likely to turn out to be anything beyond that. 

Here's a quick snapshot of how much rain from the late week system:

Unfortunately for western Kansas, it's likely going to be well under .50" (maybe not even .25") while central and eastern Kansas may get to .50". Best chances should come Thursday evening and into the night.

All of the rain is likely to depart before Friday afternoon. 

A second, much larger system could be on its heels. We are closing looking at a system that is due in the following week (perhaps Monday/Tuesday). This one looks quite strong. Upper level winds increase, the moisture is there, slow moving - now we just need it to perform and have an ideal track.

Here's the upper level wind field Monday (March 20):

The important detail here is just how strong the jet stream looks  - see the yellow and brown colors coming into the Plains? This should be a pretty potent low pressure system, which can be quite helpful in producing heavier rains (if the track doesn't get too far north). 

Here's a preview of where the rain could be Monday afternoon - from Nebraska to Texas, with good Gulf of Mexico connection. See the snow in the Rockies? I don't think very much of that - if any, will come into Kansas, but it is something to watch.

All of this leading me up to this graphic - how much rain over the next two weeks? While this isn't going to wipe away the drought in Kansas, we have to start somewhere. It is usually a long road in drought recovery, but spring is a good time to make a dent. The system coming early next week could provide some of the heaviest rain not seen in many months. 

Have a great day. I'll keep you updated on what we are seeing with respect to severe weather chances - which may be back next week for a few areas of the Plains.