First severe storm setup of the spring season

Just over a week into spring and we have our first encounter with severe storms in the state. There have been so many big days already in the south with the tornadoes last week hitting New Orleans rated an EF3. As we approach the end of March, we would expect the nationwide tornado count to be somewhere around 200, and right now, we are near 250. In fact, when looking back at the data since 2005, this is the 4th most tornadoes (to date) since 2005. When the season ramps up this quickly, there is a tendency for above average tornados (across the country). 

You can see in the graph below how this year (which is displayed by the red line) compares to recent years.

Setup for Tuesday:

Favored areas will be east of I-135 - hail and wind potential is the biggest threat.

Limiting factors will be the amount of humidity in the air. Usually on days with higher impact severe weather in Kansas, dew point temperatures (measure of moisture in the air) will be much higher than 60°. However, dew points in the 50s can get you some hail and wind - but the magnitude of severe weather is not as high. 

Timing of storms looks to be after 5pm, and by 10pm-12am, most of it will be in eastern Kansas and on the way out. 

Early Wednesday - few showers and just a little bit of snow mixed with the rain. No snow accumulations. 

Forecast rainfall: Safe to say it's not going to be what we had last week. Most of us will end up with less than .25", with higher amounts near thunderstorms in eastern Kansas. 

Another chance for some rain late in the week:

I'm not that impressed with the Friday system coming through Kansas. It's weak and not very organized - but we might be able to squeeze out some scattered rainfall for the area. Set your expectations for rain low - if we get something from it, amounts will likely be under .20"

There is hope for more rain early next week:

This is a 10 day rainfall forecast (compared to average) that takes us through April 7th. While we aren't ending drought any time soon, enough precipitation may occur just to keep things moving along. Western Kansas continues to look fairly dry - even though some rain will take place into early April. Heavier amounts (as they normally do) will end up farther east.