Two reasons to be optimistic into next week

April is wrapping up on a "surprise surprise" dry note. We've been featuring Garden City on the air for it's lack of rain in April and for the beginning of the year. Goodland has been in pretty rough shape too, so we will continue to look into the dry records and call them out when we see them. 

Two setups to watch in the first week of May. 

Monday:

A front lifting north from Oklahoma - combined with a low pressure in the upper atmosphere should lead to a good chance for rain almost statewide. Now, I'm not going to promise any particular amount, but I think there's reason to expect .50-1" from this first round coming through the Plains. Look at the map below:

Wednesday/Thursday:

Once again, there's potential of another front/low pressure combination that could lead to fairly widespread chances for showers and storms. Since this system follows so closely on the heels of Monday's system, there is some concern about how much humidity we can recover before the setup comes into play. However, we feel pretty confident that we will see another round of rain for the area. 

Here's what the Wednesday/Thursday rounds of rain could bring:

If we are lucky enough to have this verify, it could be the difference between a poor wheat crop and one that's average. While it is just a forecast and not reality yet, I'm just trying to show you what we are looking at when making these predictions for early May. The month (as a whole) may end up much drier than normal, but it could be off to a wet start for many.

Planets are lining up for Saturday morning:

If you are an early riser (and the clouds clear from your spot in time), 4 planets will be lined up in the southeastern sky. Venus and Jupiter are going to be 1/2° apart in this planet conjunction. 

You could also wait until Sunday morning to look too, but just know that Jupiter will be to Venus' upper right by that time.

Has this spring been windier than usual?

That question has been coming up a lot lately and I finally found some good information that backs up this idea that we've had more than our fair share of wind. I'm breaking this down into a couple different ways to look at it. First, looking solely at the month of April, and then meteorological spring (which started on March 1st and continues until May 31). Please click on the graphs if they are hard to read.

Let's look at the month of April. We are counting the number of days that have had wind gusts at or above 35 knots (kts) OR 40 mph:

Wichita (April only):

• 13 of the 25 days - so far - have had gusts of at least 40 mph
• You'll see that 2009 was quite windy (16 days with gusts of at least 40), and still holds the prize in recent record keeping

Dodge City:

• 16 days so far - more to come - making this one of the windiest months of April since 1973

Goodland:

• 17 days - and likely climbing - with gusts of 40 mph or stronger - making it one of the windiest months of April in recent record keeping

Salina:

Now if we look at March 1-April 24 (basically spring so far) and remember, we only have 56 days recorded this year.

Wichita:

• 24 days so far
• In 2021, there were 28 TOTAL days in all of March, April, and May

Dodge City:

• 29 days so far - compare that with 36 days in all of March, April, and May

Goodland:

• 26 days so far - compare that with 26 days TOTAL for March, April, and May in 2021

Salina:

• 19 days so far - compared to 25 days TOTAL in March, April, and May 

I think given this information; we can conclude this spring has been windier than most spring seasons in Kansas. Unfortunately, in a year that isn't getting much rainfall, dry is only turning drier and drought continues to expand. 

We will have a May outlook coming soon - and if we see other windy records that are noteworthy, I'll try to get those posted here too.

Have a great day.

April rain (or lack thereof) could be historic - severe chances return

The lack of rain this month is about as discouraging as you can get when trying to grow crops, get grass to green up, or put some water in farm ponds. This is NOT usually our wettest month of the year, but one would expect more rain than we've had so far. Unfortunately (but not a surprise) it is very slim pickings when it comes to rain potential to wrap up this month. 

We are anticipating some rain at the end of the week (and drizzle before then). Much of the state is on track to have its top 10 driest months of April on record. Here are the numbers:

In order to remain in top 10 (driest), the month needs to finish less than the numbers shown below:

• Goodland: .36"
• Dodge City: .32"
• Salina: .74"
• Wichita: .57"

This month has also been quite cool, but unlikely to finish in a top 10 "coolest" Aprils.

Here's what the drizzle/light rain shower chances may lead to between Wednesday/Thursday:

Severe chances return - but not really all that alarming:

There are several factors to watch for when forecasting severe weather episodes. One feature includes the upper-level winds (jet stream) and where the strongest winds will be during the warmest hours of the day. Just looking at the Friday setup, note where the strongest winds appear to setup - back in Colorado and New Mexico (not over Kansas). That certainly doesn't eliminate the risk, but it does reduce it somewhat - and the best storm chances for Kansas may not arrive until the overnight hours (especially for western Kansas)

Other factors to watch - where the highest humidity will be and how sharp is the dry line (meaning - how significant is the change from humid to dry over a particular distance). Here's what Friday looks like:

You'll notice that it appears a gradual change from 60s to 20s - over a spread out distance of central and western Kansas. This would suggest to me less of a severe threat - but again, it doesn't eliminate it.

Bottom line is that factors are coming together for some rain and severe weather, but I don't think there's anything alarming here at the end of this week. The severe weather includes much of western Kansas - we need the rain, but it may come with a little bit of hail and some stronger wind gusts as storms roll through. - many of them happening in the overnight hours.

Friday night/Saturday morning - rain chances across the west:

Saturday focus will be farther east - large hail threat and locally heavy rains:

Have a great day.

A historic tornado outbreak 10 years ago today

 April 14, 2012 will always be a memorable day for some that went through a large tornado outbreak in the Plains. I remember waking up that morning - on a Saturday - with a community clean up day wondering how long I'd be able to help before getting called to work. There was a "high" risk for tornadoes and storms started before noon. It was a well predicted event and many had rearranged their weekend plans to keep an eye on the weather.

• 86 confirmed tornadoes
• 6 fatalities (all in Oklahoma)
• Strongest tornado of the day: EF4 near Marquette, KS

Here was the 8am day 1 storm outlook:

And a 30-45% chance of seeing tornadoes in Kansas and Nebraska:

The radar image before noon had severe thunderstorms already developing across central/western Kansas. The yellow boxes are severe thunderstorm warnings while the red outline indicates the tornado watch. That was just the first watch for Kansas that day.

Just before 6 pm, the radar showed tornado producing storms in central and south central Kansas. The tornado was underway in northeast Rice county, headed into Saline county. Meanwhile, we were also watching the tornado warnings coming up from northern Oklahoma that would eventually get south central Kansas involved.

The strongest tornado that afternoon in Kansas was rated EF4, which went through Rice, southeast Ellsworth counties, and dissipated before reaching Salina. Had the tornado not weakened, it may very well hit Salina. The storm then crossed over Salina, and produced another tornado near Solomon.

This was the tornado captured on the Ellsworth/Saline county line (as it passed east of Kanopolis Lake) - courtesy Will Campbell

Some of the EF4 damage just south of Kanopolis Lake

Later that evening, a tornado came up through Sumner county and into Sedgwick county, hitting Oaklawn and crossing Spirit Aerosystems - producing EF3 damage in Oaklawn.

Here is the Storm Prediction Center summary of the reports that day.

Are we done with the freezes? Some rain on the horizon

Several questions lately about whether or not we've had our last spring freeze - and the short answer to that is no. There's a strong likelihood that two more blast of cool air (that could lead to frost/freeze) will be coming through the central Plains. 

The first one hits during the middle of this week:

Another blast of cool air should arrives for Easter (and the few days after):

It will be risky planting anything that's susceptible to cold weather right now as the pattern continues to favor these wild swings in temperatures. Here's a map to show when we normally have our last spring freeze, and you'll be able to see that what is happening isn't really out of the ordinary in most years. 

As the days pass and no rain falls in central and western Kansas, I know some of you are getting anxious about what this means for the wheat crop/grass/drought. Unfortunately, we still aren't seeing a way out of this drier than normal pattern that's dominating the Plains states. La Niña continues and it hasn't weakened enough (out in the Pacific) to change the trajectory of our rainfall predictions into summer. More dry weather is likely to prevail. HOWEVER, we could still get enough rain to help us get by. And I think that is the ongoing theme as we move closer to summer. 

Here's what some of the models show for rainfall as we move later into April:

7 Day Forecast (April 16-23):

7 Day Forecast (April 23-39):

There is a chance we could see some rain coming through on Easter Sunday - while not necessarily looking like a big storm system, it could bring some showers through the area. Early signs point toward less than .25" - hardly enough to make any kind of dent in the drought, but we'll take anything we can get.

Have a great day.

Next signs of severe weather potential

A rather strong low pressure system is setup near the Great Lakes for the remainder of this week, which will keep the wind machine cranked up until Friday. This isn't out of the ordinary for springtime in the Plains. The low pressure systems are quite strong this time of year (part of the transition from winter to summer), and when you end up near one, you can bet the wind will be a factor. There's plenty more still to come. 

As unfortunate as this kind of setup is with respect to wind and the nuisance that comes with it, it does keep the threat of hail and tornadoes at bay. Just look at dew point temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday across the Plains. These numbers are a measure of how much moisture is in the air, and when they are this low, you just don't get the rain most are seeking. 

The pattern resets for next week:

Our second full week of April will be quite different as a new low pressure system develops west of the Rockies. Several things will happen starting over the weekend:

• South winds come back
• Temperatures will heat up
• Humidity returns
• Storm chances will ramp up - most notably on Tuesday

At this point in time, safe to expect that the central Plains will have a risk of severe storms either Tuesday or Wednesday. The green colors on the map represent the highest humidity, which should be plentiful enough to set the stage for hail and wind potential. A large low pressure system coming out of the west will also help to increase the rain chances for much of the area next week too. Stay tuned for more updates on this setup as we get closer.

Kansas has its 1st tornado in 2022:

It happened on March 29th just before 8pm. Rated an EF1, a damage assessment team from Topeka NWS indicated that an EF1 tornado occurred 4 miles east of Valley Falls in Jefferson county. If you are not familiar, that is north of Lawrence. It lasted for about 10 minutes and had a damage path of just over 9 miles. We typically see about 60-80 tornadoes a year and it is very normal to have the first one recorded by the 1st part of April. 

Have a great day.

April outlook - severe weather on hold to start

We are moving into the heart of severe weather season for Kansas and as many of you know, April and May are the two biggest months. The South has been in the thick of it all with at least two big outbreaks of severe weather in recent weeks. Thats's where you would expect to find it in late March, as temperatures across central US tend to be too cool for widespread severe storms (although it can happen).

As April begins, the likelihood of tornadoes is still favored south of Kansas. 

However, at the end of the month, you see how the threats shifts north - that's due to the increase in temperature, humidity, and jet stream winds beginning to move northward. 

April in Kansas tends to favor more rainfall. While it is still not our wettest month of the year, average precipitation for western Kansas finally gets back above an inch, with average rainfall farther east getting back to around 3 inches. 

No severe weather for the first week of April around Kansas:

We will have a chance for rain coming in Tuesday afternoon/evening. Heaviest will be central and east. Looks to me like T-.10" for western Kansas, with .25-.50" farther east. This will move through pretty quickly, so amounts overall will be limited. 

The pattern does NOT look supportive of any widespread severe weather for Kansas through at least the first 9-10 days. The chance for moisture on Tuesday should not include storms or severe weather, so we will likely get (almost) to mid-April with no severe weather. The big low spinning near the Great Lakes will keep our temperatures below average.

2nd weekend in April -

This kind of setup looks very warm, but also dry. It would appear that heading into our second full week of the month, conditions will warmer than average. However, this is where we will start to see a reset in the pattern, and severe weather may soon follow. I would say that any day after the 12th, chances for more active weather return. The image below shows potential rain in the Plains mid month.

The pattern may calm down a bit from April 21-27th, but right at the end of the month, there may be another uptick in storms and severe weather chances. 

April temperatures as a whole: Generally near to above average from Kansas south into the southern Plains

April rainfall as a whole: Not overly encouraging for drought in western and central Kansas, but we may get enough moisture just to keep going. Doesn't look like enough rain to remove any of the widespread drought conditions. 

Thanks for spending a few minutes here - have a great day.