April outlook - severe weather on hold to start

We are moving into the heart of severe weather season for Kansas and as many of you know, April and May are the two biggest months. The South has been in the thick of it all with at least two big outbreaks of severe weather in recent weeks. Thats's where you would expect to find it in late March, as temperatures across central US tend to be too cool for widespread severe storms (although it can happen).

As April begins, the likelihood of tornadoes is still favored south of Kansas. 

However, at the end of the month, you see how the threats shifts north - that's due to the increase in temperature, humidity, and jet stream winds beginning to move northward. 

April in Kansas tends to favor more rainfall. While it is still not our wettest month of the year, average precipitation for western Kansas finally gets back above an inch, with average rainfall farther east getting back to around 3 inches. 

No severe weather for the first week of April around Kansas:

We will have a chance for rain coming in Tuesday afternoon/evening. Heaviest will be central and east. Looks to me like T-.10" for western Kansas, with .25-.50" farther east. This will move through pretty quickly, so amounts overall will be limited. 

The pattern does NOT look supportive of any widespread severe weather for Kansas through at least the first 9-10 days. The chance for moisture on Tuesday should not include storms or severe weather, so we will likely get (almost) to mid-April with no severe weather. The big low spinning near the Great Lakes will keep our temperatures below average.

2nd weekend in April -

This kind of setup looks very warm, but also dry. It would appear that heading into our second full week of the month, conditions will warmer than average. However, this is where we will start to see a reset in the pattern, and severe weather may soon follow. I would say that any day after the 12th, chances for more active weather return. The image below shows potential rain in the Plains mid month.

The pattern may calm down a bit from April 21-27th, but right at the end of the month, there may be another uptick in storms and severe weather chances. 

April temperatures as a whole: Generally near to above average from Kansas south into the southern Plains

April rainfall as a whole: Not overly encouraging for drought in western and central Kansas, but we may get enough moisture just to keep going. Doesn't look like enough rain to remove any of the widespread drought conditions. 

Thanks for spending a few minutes here - have a great day.