Another tornado record - and still on track for heavier rains

What is typically our busiest month for tornadoes comes and goes - and there's another record to report from Storm Prediction Center. The tornado count (which is considered a preliminary number so far) stands at just under 800 across the country (for all of 2022). A rather rapid increase in the tornadoes early in 2022 somewhat leveled off in the last 30 days. 

Here's the impressive stat that sets a record:

I don't have an exact count on Kansas tornadoes for the year, but I believe it is still under 50 (remember the 30-year running average is right around 80-90). The strongest tornado of the year continues to be the Andover tornado from April 29th (rated EF3). 

Drought update:

Big rains in the last 30 days have really helped out, putting some water back in creeks and streams. First, let's look at how much rain over the state from May 2-June 2:

The drought map has changed, but you have to look carefully to see where and what's different. The top map is the new one that just came out, while the map below it reflects the previous week. Notice central Kansas goes from "extreme" drought to "severe", which is an improvement but still a long way to go. Western Kansas (in the last week) has not seen much change. 

The previous weeks drought map:

What are the severe chances in the days ahead?

Right now, I would expect them to all remain low. Even though we have a fairly active stretch of weather in front of us, we probably won't see that many severe storms. Biggest concerns will be flooding rainfall and some storms that may produce gusty winds to around 50 or 60 mph. 

How much rain and when?

The setup will favor overnight and early morning storms. They will have a tendency to start on the High Plains of Colorado, western Kansas, and into Nebraska and then spread southeast through the night. This is pretty common in summertime and will hopefully help ease the drought a bit more. Figuring out which part of the state will have highest chance may not be clear until 24 hours before, but we feel like this stuff will be rather widespread, and even if one round misses you, there's more to come. 

If the models are correct, much of the state will have decent rainfall (greater than 1") with many other areas getting closer to 2-4"+. It still looks like the biggest rains will likely happen in central and south central Kansas - and some of those areas don't need any right now. But it looks like north central will get more good moisture and even the southwest, although maybe not enough to end drought, it will help. 

Thanks for spending a few minutes here.