Summer arrives with a cool down on the way

Summer is here (as of 4:13 AM Tuesday) and if you feel like it started weeks ago, I'm guessing you aren't the only one with that idea. Most of the state has already recorded it's first 100° day, and for Dodge City, we've almost had half as many 100s as we had in all of last year. And we still have July and August to go:

Did you know that during summer, the Earth is actually farther from the sun than in winter? And sun is directly overhead at the Tropic of Cancer, or roughly 22° north of the equator. 

Our first threat of widely scattered storms comes as a cold front drifts into the area and hangs out through Wednesday. This is a case of hit/miss rain - maybe driving some farmers to move from one field to another because it's so isolated. 

Chances do increase a bit Wednesday, mainly over the southern half of the state. However, we are still talking about scattered stuff and not covering entire areas. Chances of severe weather should remain low given how weak the winds are aloft. Doesn't mean we couldn't have a storm produce some high winds, but I don't think this will be a hail concern. 

The biggest change comes this weekend as STRONG front comes surging across the area. Highs will drop 20-30° and we should manage a couple of days with 70s and 80s around the area. And the humidity will go down as well. 

We will probably get some rain too - looking like northwest Kansas maybe Friday night and the rest of the area Saturday night to early Sunday. 

Initial thoughts on how much rain: expectations are western Kansas may get more than what areas farther east will get, but much of the state will have a chance.

Thoughts on early July as we head toward the holiday & beyond:

I think the upper "high" will gradually shift back to New Mexico and the 4 Corners area. Whether that happens right at the beginning of the month or after the holiday is something we are watching. Some of the models are driving a cold front through just before the 4th of July, so we may end up with some nice weather heading toward the holiday. 

Early 4th temperature outlook:

If this pattern does come to light, our heat should ease with chances for storms coming off the higher terrain of Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska. This would be a more favorable pattern for storms to occur at night, but details aren't clear this far out. While I don't expect a "cool" July overall, we should be able to avoid a solid month of extreme heat - and some occasional rain (but not likely above average)