February tornadoes - March outlook

The confirmed tornado Sunday night in southwest Kansas comes just in time to remind us about Severe Weather Awareness Week that comes up the first week of March. Each day will have a new topic, and we will release some safety information, along with interesting stats that you may not already know. For example, did you know that an average lightning bolt is 50,000°F, which is five times hotter than the sun? And winds in a tornado can go either direction? 

There was a brief tornado that skirted the southeast corner of Liberal with a damage path of about 4 miles and was about 20 yards wide. From beginning to end, it had EF0 damage and there were no serious injuries from the storm. Unfortunately, the rain wasn't as much as some might have hoped for, only getting about .30"

February tornadoes:

It is NOT the earliest tornado for Kansas. There have been other February tornadoes, but as you might expect, it's not something we see every year. I went digging through the database to find some recent February tornadoes and found an EF0 in 2017, occurring on the 28th. It is worth noting that an EF4 happened on the 28th back in 2007 in Linn County. There were no deaths or injuries from that particular storm. I didn't go looking for the earliest tornado of the year, but did find a February 23rd tornado from 2007. 

Is there a correlation between an early start to tornadoes in Kansas and how the rest of the season will go? Well, in my limited search, he's what you can ponder. In 2017, there were 63 total for the year (which is just slightly below the average of 85). In 2012, we had a more active tornado count, with 110. Remember, the Greensburg tornado happened in 2007, which also had a February tornado. 

March outlook:

The month of March marks the beginning of meteorological spring. The equinox comes up on the 20th, when we have equal day and night. Daylight is increasing and the average temperature is at 51°F, and will jump into the 60s by the end of the month. 

The first full week of March may look like this:

Kansas will likely end up cooler than average (where highs are mostly in the 40s) - but even some 30s may get mixed in from time to time.

I still look for the month (as a whole) to be cooler than average. The coldest part of the month may be coming March 10-20. Right now, models suggest temperatures running about 10°F below average.

It's encouraging to think above average moisture may happen for our area too. March is NOT one of the wetter months of the year, and the map below is only for the period of March 7-13. There's reasonable hope the active weather pattern will continue overall, so be on the lookout for more rain and snow chances. 

Mid-late March has reasonable chances of more active weather too. Most of us know, the weather can get a little wild in March, so the maps below could be rain or snow with more chilly weather still to come. When you are as dry as we are in the Plains, we can't be too picky. A good, heavy wet snow can still offer up some real benefits and at least this close to spring, it won't be around for too long.

Have a great day. Thanks for spending a few minutes here. 

Nearing conjunction - couple more storms lining up

If you've been looking southwest the last several evenings, you're seeing Venus and Jupiter. You just can't miss them because they are the brightest thing in the evening sky. What will be fun to watch is that they are nearing conjunction on March 1st when they will be just 1/2° apart and lined up horizontally. 

Unlike the green comet just weeks ago, binoculars are not needed. 🙂

Two storms to watch:

The midweek system isn't much of a rain (or snow maker) for Kansas. The amounts will likely be less than .25" for south central and eastern Kansas, so hardly enough to even settle some dust. The system is moving fast and weakening as it moves along. Any wintry weather that falls in northern Kansas also won't be much.

Watching another storm this weekend:

This will bring chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region, and there's some potential for strong storms moving into the evening and overnight. Timing of the storms will get ironed out as we get closer, however, the setup does warrant some attention. 

Maybe the best news of all is that it could be a statewide opportunity for some moisture and not just southeast Kansas. There's a pretty good supply of Gulf of Mexico humidity surging northward into the Plains (shown by dew points in the 50s and 60s). 

Once we get closer, we will start to talk about how much rain, but one would expect that unless you end up under a thunderstorm, the amounts will be less than satisfactory.

Early look at March:

I'm getting lots of questions about March - it's usually our wildcard month. Crazy things seem to happen in March from severe weather outbreaks to blizzards. Most maps and data suggest a slightly colder than average month. This doesn't mean the entire month is cold, but taking into account the lows and highs, it may not be quite as nice and warm as you'd hope. As for moisture, stay tuned. 

Active weather continues & we are nearing the end of something important!

More busy weather ahead with the snow that will come through Wednesday-early Thursday. Widespread snow that will be accompanied by some wind. It's not necessarily the biggest winter storm of the season, but the areas that have already had some heavy snow this year will see it again Wednesday and into the night. 

It's not going to be around for very long (likely less than 15 hours), so by Thursday morning, the center of the system will be in Missouri and snow will shut down quickly. 

The coldest of the winter is behind us, but there's still quite a bit of cold air yet to come. A quick blast hits later this week, but it moves on after just about 24-36 hours. It's not a lengthy stretch of bitter cold. However, another round of cold air is lining up and ready to move this way next week. Longer range data continues to hint at more active weather even into next week. It may not be a big winter storm, but there are signs of more rain and snow chances for the area by midweek (Feb. 22-23). And it too may be followed by some colder weather. 

La Niña Update:

Look at the two maps below. The first map is from Jan. 5th and you'll see the darker shades of blue along the equator represent colder than average water temperatures. In the map right below it, which is the most current image, you'll notice less blue along the equator, indicating a warming of the water. La Nina is almost dead. It's been ongoing for three years, and finally, we are nearing the end of what most would blame for the ongoing drought that isn't improving on any widespread scale. The temperature is about -.5°C below average, which barely gives it the La Nina status. Expectations are that warming of the water will continue into spring. 

It is worth noting that just because La Nina is nearly dead doesn't mean the rain will suddenly follow. However, there is reason to hope that some different weather - perhaps more rain - will be coming soon. Long term patterns take time to shift around, but if we move toward an El Nino later this fall, that usually does bring an end to widespread drought. It just may take many more months to get there.

Thanks for stopping by here for a few minutes.

Most of our February moisture may come in one week

There's no doubt that we will have some very active weather in our second full week of February. Two systems are likely to cross the Plains with chances for moisture, but one might have more impact than the other. The reasons why we can't give too many specifics has a lot to do with - you guessed it - the track. 

First system:

• Arrives Monday night-Tuesday
• Likely to be ALL rain
• Heavier amounts are expected to fall central and east

This low-pressure system takes a very southern track (likely going into northern Mexico for awhile), and when they do that, the chances of intercepting some good, rich Gulf of Mexico humidity dramatically increases. We will be watching to see when it takes a turn back to the north. There is some concern it may get too far south and more of the state gets missed entirely. Let's hope that doesn't happen here.

Given the expected setup, I would anticipate heaviest amounts (which could be .50"-1") for areas east of a line from Dodge City to Hays. Unfortunately, farther west, this won't be much (likely under .25"). We would need the system to take a turn farther north if we wanted to put more rain across the west and lately, that hasn't been the case.

Second system:

• Arrives Wednesday/early Thursday
• Most of this will be snow, with some rain initially.
• Several inches of snow could fall
• Potential wind with the snow & much colder air

Since this system follows so quickly on the heels of the early week storm, we have to be concerned about how quickly the moisture can reload. Does the system from Tuesday cut into what's available for the midweek storm? That's something we will have to consider, but there's reasonable expectation that the moisture coming out of Colorado would yield several hours of steady snow, which could end with several inches in some places. The difficulty here is the wind - gusts of 30-40 may accompany the system. While not likely a blizzard, we should be prepared for drifting. 

Please be advised, you may see some crazy snowfall forecast maps out there floating around on Facebook and Twitter. Just be sure information you're gathering comes from a reliable source and not something bogus. We tend to see a bunch of wild stuff leading up to potent winter storms.

Have a great day.

February outlook & snow map comparison

Our first month of 2023 in the books and overall, it was a warmer than average. We thought there would be a January thaw, and indeed it showed up for much of the area. What's interesting though is when you compare how much of the country is covered in snow compared to last year at this time. It's quite a difference. 

First, look at the map from the end of January 2022: 35% of the country covered by snow

Now, look at the map as we wrap up January 2023: 49% of the country under some snow pack

February outlook:

It might come as a surprise that for many areas, February is one of the snowier months of the year. There's still several more weeks of winter, but typically after the first few weeks of the month, our risk of major cold is behind us. You might recall two years ago that 2-week spell of sub-freezing weather that caused a lot of problems for areas south of Kansas, it started around Valentine's Day. That won't be happening this year. The first half of this month looks to be slightly warmer than average with several days in the 40s, 50s, and 60s. If you notice the big blue/green areas in the desert Southwest, that will indicate where some stronger low pressure systems will form (generating more clouds and keeping temperatures colder than average)

I'm expecting colder weather to be back in mid to late February, but I don't think it will be quite as cold as some of the stretches have been. Think of it as "modified" Arctic air that has a chance to warm a bit before reaching the Plains. That's what may arrive around or shortly after Valentine's Day.

We won't be ending the drought this month, but it is encouraging to think the next three-four weeks will have more chances for moisture. January saw some weeks with back-to-back storms, and there's reason to think we will continue to have an active southwest storm track. Does it translate to rain and snow for Kansas? Maybe a few of the storms, but I still don't think we will have blockbuster amounts of moisture this new month. The numbers on the map don't indicate "total moisture" - it only suggests how far above average one particular location might be. And it is merely guidance - not necessarily reality. 

The first storm of February should arrive Monday/early Tuesday. It will mainly be a rain event, but some light snow may form on the back part of the system. There's a chance some parts of south central and eastern Kansas may get .25-.50" (with higher amounts much more spotty).

Hope you have a great day. Thanks for spending a few minutes here.