February tornadoes - March outlook

The confirmed tornado Sunday night in southwest Kansas comes just in time to remind us about Severe Weather Awareness Week that comes up the first week of March. Each day will have a new topic, and we will release some safety information, along with interesting stats that you may not already know. For example, did you know that an average lightning bolt is 50,000°F, which is five times hotter than the sun? And winds in a tornado can go either direction? 

There was a brief tornado that skirted the southeast corner of Liberal with a damage path of about 4 miles and was about 20 yards wide. From beginning to end, it had EF0 damage and there were no serious injuries from the storm. Unfortunately, the rain wasn't as much as some might have hoped for, only getting about .30"

February tornadoes:

It is NOT the earliest tornado for Kansas. There have been other February tornadoes, but as you might expect, it's not something we see every year. I went digging through the database to find some recent February tornadoes and found an EF0 in 2017, occurring on the 28th. It is worth noting that an EF4 happened on the 28th back in 2007 in Linn County. There were no deaths or injuries from that particular storm. I didn't go looking for the earliest tornado of the year, but did find a February 23rd tornado from 2007. 

Is there a correlation between an early start to tornadoes in Kansas and how the rest of the season will go? Well, in my limited search, he's what you can ponder. In 2017, there were 63 total for the year (which is just slightly below the average of 85). In 2012, we had a more active tornado count, with 110. Remember, the Greensburg tornado happened in 2007, which also had a February tornado. 

March outlook:

The month of March marks the beginning of meteorological spring. The equinox comes up on the 20th, when we have equal day and night. Daylight is increasing and the average temperature is at 51°F, and will jump into the 60s by the end of the month. 

The first full week of March may look like this:

Kansas will likely end up cooler than average (where highs are mostly in the 40s) - but even some 30s may get mixed in from time to time.

I still look for the month (as a whole) to be cooler than average. The coldest part of the month may be coming March 10-20. Right now, models suggest temperatures running about 10°F below average.

It's encouraging to think above average moisture may happen for our area too. March is NOT one of the wetter months of the year, and the map below is only for the period of March 7-13. There's reasonable hope the active weather pattern will continue overall, so be on the lookout for more rain and snow chances. 

Mid-late March has reasonable chances of more active weather too. Most of us know, the weather can get a little wild in March, so the maps below could be rain or snow with more chilly weather still to come. When you are as dry as we are in the Plains, we can't be too picky. A good, heavy wet snow can still offer up some real benefits and at least this close to spring, it won't be around for too long.

Have a great day. Thanks for spending a few minutes here.