Most of our February moisture may come in one week

There's no doubt that we will have some very active weather in our second full week of February. Two systems are likely to cross the Plains with chances for moisture, but one might have more impact than the other. The reasons why we can't give too many specifics has a lot to do with - you guessed it - the track. 

First system:

• Arrives Monday night-Tuesday
• Likely to be ALL rain
• Heavier amounts are expected to fall central and east

This low-pressure system takes a very southern track (likely going into northern Mexico for awhile), and when they do that, the chances of intercepting some good, rich Gulf of Mexico humidity dramatically increases. We will be watching to see when it takes a turn back to the north. There is some concern it may get too far south and more of the state gets missed entirely. Let's hope that doesn't happen here.

Given the expected setup, I would anticipate heaviest amounts (which could be .50"-1") for areas east of a line from Dodge City to Hays. Unfortunately, farther west, this won't be much (likely under .25"). We would need the system to take a turn farther north if we wanted to put more rain across the west and lately, that hasn't been the case.

Second system:

• Arrives Wednesday/early Thursday
• Most of this will be snow, with some rain initially.
• Several inches of snow could fall
• Potential wind with the snow & much colder air

Since this system follows so quickly on the heels of the early week storm, we have to be concerned about how quickly the moisture can reload. Does the system from Tuesday cut into what's available for the midweek storm? That's something we will have to consider, but there's reasonable expectation that the moisture coming out of Colorado would yield several hours of steady snow, which could end with several inches in some places. The difficulty here is the wind - gusts of 30-40 may accompany the system. While not likely a blizzard, we should be prepared for drifting. 

Please be advised, you may see some crazy snowfall forecast maps out there floating around on Facebook and Twitter. Just be sure information you're gathering comes from a reliable source and not something bogus. We tend to see a bunch of wild stuff leading up to potent winter storms.

Have a great day.