February outlook & snow map comparison

Our first month of 2023 in the books and overall, it was a warmer than average. We thought there would be a January thaw, and indeed it showed up for much of the area. What's interesting though is when you compare how much of the country is covered in snow compared to last year at this time. It's quite a difference. 

First, look at the map from the end of January 2022: 35% of the country covered by snow

Now, look at the map as we wrap up January 2023: 49% of the country under some snow pack

February outlook:

It might come as a surprise that for many areas, February is one of the snowier months of the year. There's still several more weeks of winter, but typically after the first few weeks of the month, our risk of major cold is behind us. You might recall two years ago that 2-week spell of sub-freezing weather that caused a lot of problems for areas south of Kansas, it started around Valentine's Day. That won't be happening this year. The first half of this month looks to be slightly warmer than average with several days in the 40s, 50s, and 60s. If you notice the big blue/green areas in the desert Southwest, that will indicate where some stronger low pressure systems will form (generating more clouds and keeping temperatures colder than average)

I'm expecting colder weather to be back in mid to late February, but I don't think it will be quite as cold as some of the stretches have been. Think of it as "modified" Arctic air that has a chance to warm a bit before reaching the Plains. That's what may arrive around or shortly after Valentine's Day.

We won't be ending the drought this month, but it is encouraging to think the next three-four weeks will have more chances for moisture. January saw some weeks with back-to-back storms, and there's reason to think we will continue to have an active southwest storm track. Does it translate to rain and snow for Kansas? Maybe a few of the storms, but I still don't think we will have blockbuster amounts of moisture this new month. The numbers on the map don't indicate "total moisture" - it only suggests how far above average one particular location might be. And it is merely guidance - not necessarily reality. 

The first storm of February should arrive Monday/early Tuesday. It will mainly be a rain event, but some light snow may form on the back part of the system. There's a chance some parts of south central and eastern Kansas may get .25-.50" (with higher amounts much more spotty).

Hope you have a great day. Thanks for spending a few minutes here.