April outlook - is anything going to be different?

Wrapping up the month of March and another dry month in the books. We are all so tired of the same ol, same ol. Drought, no rain, wind, fire, etc. It's a tough place to be right now, but we know it will change. I know everybody is growing very impatient, and I wish I could do something about it. 

First, March moisture looks like this compared to average: Most of the state SHOULD receive around 1.5-3" of moisture, but we didn't get anywhere close. Better than average moisture did fall in far northwest Kansas (most of it snow).

Temperatures were cooler for the region, which is good to have if you aren't getting rainfall. Much of Kansas was anywhere from 3-8 below average. 

April averages look like this for Kansas: It's still not our wettest month on average, but the expectations do increase a bit for rainfall as the humidity tends to increase (along with the temperatures too)

April temperature outlook: It will likely be a month where it ends up close to average. The "cooler" days will be offset with some really warm ones (especially right at the beginning of the month). 

April rainfall outlook: This is not good news at all. Set expectations low because it appears that April may not be very helpful in pushing back drought conditions. The beginning of the month is dry, so whatever moisture we do get may not come until we approach the middle of the month. 

As discouraging as the above map may be, let me just remind you that this happened last year. April was below average on rain, but once May rolled around, we started getting some nice moisture. In fact, May 2022 was one of the wettest Mays on record for some areas, but then the summer would go on and produce little to no rain for much of the state. 

As soon as we can latch on to some potential change, we will be sure to cover it. Until then, stay safe out there and thanks for coming by.

Here we go again - more severe weather chances

It's a frustrating spot to be in right now with so many powerful low-pressure systems racing by Kansas, leaving us with just trace amounts. It snowed Monday for most of the day in northwest Kansas, but after melting it all down, the moisture was barely a .10". Most of us will have a different idea of what a "good" rain is, but if we set the threshold at .50", here's the last time we saw those totals in a 24-hour time frame:

More severe weather is coming:

Another severe weather event is likely to unfold Friday with a large upper low kicking out of the West. California just dealt with another round of flooding rain and heavy, wet mountain snow. That same system is moving east and will provide another busy day of weather for areas EAST of Kansas (basically Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Illinois)

Upper-level winds are quite strong (above 120 mph) coming in from the southwest. That sets the stage for rotating storms that will produce some large hail and maybe a tornado or two.

The key here is that higher humidity gets pushed east of Kansas BEFORE the main western system gets in place, so the necessary ingredients don't come together in time for us to get the needed rain. Whatever we get Friday will form under the low itself, and it won't be much more than just trace amounts. Surprise surprise.

When will Kansas have another chance at some rain (that's more than a trace?) - We are watching Easter weekend. Another big upper low will form in the West and move this way. Details to come.

Are we having above average tornadoes this year?

The season is well underway, and the tornado count is up (compared to last year and compared to average). Kansas has only had two tornadoes in 2023, but leading the way is Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia with a combined 129 so far. There's nothing unusual about the tornado count for Kansas at this point in the season - tells us nothing really about how the remainder of the spring will go.

In late March, eastern Texas all the way to Alabama have the highest likelihood of severe storms (the areas shaded in darker red). It may not sound very high, but from any one point in the red shaded area, there's an 8% chance of severe weather (hail, wind, or tornadoes). 

Heading into April, more severe weather setups are coming. This isn't anything Earth-shattering, but if you look at the temperature anomalies for the first week of the month, the "cool" over "warm" is likely a recipe for more rough weather in the Plains states. 

However, if we look into the second full week of April, notice how the cool weather overspreads much of the Plains states? That should knock down the risk greatly heading into mid-month. 

Thanks for spending a few minutes here. 

More active days ahead - could be some good news

First, the good news is that we are about to see two rounds of moisture for the Plains - one round coming Friday, the other on Sunday. What else is encouraging is that the chances will include most, if not all of the state. I don't know how long it's been since we've been able to say that, but glad we have this ahead. 

I will admit that the chances are scattered, so amounts will probably vary quite a bit from place to place, but it does appear that we can set our expectations at roughly .25"-.50", and understand some will get a bit more and others less. Nobody will get the kind of rain that eastern Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas is forecast to receive. Wow. Imagine if we could get a good 2 inch rain. Unfortunately, not this time around. 

March rainfall update (as of Thursday morning)

• Dodge City: .01" (tied 2nd driest)
• Wichita: .09" (3rd driest)
• Goodland: .09" (5th driest)
• Salina: .21" (10th driest)

New drought map just out Thursday morning:

La Nina checkup:

Here's a quick comparison of how the last 7 months have played out. 

See how the below average water temperatures near the Equator (shaded in blue) have essentially disappeared in the most recent update.

We know La Nina is gone, and there's a good chance we will move toward El Nino this fall and into the winter. If you haven't read about it before, El Nino setups tend to favor better rainfall for the central US, especially into fall and winter. The million-dollar question - does the removal of La Nina result in much better moisture this summer? Everyone is tired of drought and ready for it to be gone yesterday. Some are saying this is the worst its been in an extremely long time, or maybe the worst you've ever seen. Let me just say that it's a good thing La Nina is gone, but getting out of this predicament will take many more months. 

However, some of the seasonal guidance suggests at least an average or above average monsoon setup in the summer across the Southwest. Some of that moisture may get pulled on to the high plains. 

The European Model (sometimes labeled as ECMWF) shows near or above average summer moisture. 

Early signs are encouraging, but as you well know, no guarantee. We get some updated material here around the 1st of April, so be sure to check back.

Have a great day.

A warmer Gulf of Mexico means what for storm season?

A popular question this time of year is "how bad will the storm season be"? Are we going to have an active tornado season? They are some difficult questions to answer with a high level of certainty, but we can point out some features to watch as the season is in its infancy. 

Warmer Gulf of Mexico:

Water temperatures appear to be about 1-2°C above average. I don't know if this is the warmest Gulf of Mexico we've had in recent years, but looking back on past data, it appears that the water (overall) has been warmer than average since 2015. See the maps for yourself:

However, a warmer Gulf of Mexico does not consistently lead to higher-than-average severe weather episodes. In fact, if you look back at 2020 when COVID was making all of the big headlines, severe weather wasn't much of a factor around the Plains. There were 17 tornadoes in Kansas, which set a record for the year. The graphic below shows you the variability that we have year to year. 

Right now, the number of tornadoes (across the country) is higher than average (260 reports / 160 is about average year-to-date). As you might expect, most of them have been in the south where severe weather season is already underway. I've lost count of how many severe weather episodes have happened in 2023, but it felt like it started early this year. 

Kansas has had its first bout with severe storms, and one tornado that skirted by the Liberal area on February 26 (rated an EF0)

So what does it mean when the season starts early?

Ultimately, we can't say conclusively what lies ahead (based on the fact we've already had some activity in Kansas), but in looking back at records since 2000, more times than not when we've already had a tornado this early in the season, we go on to have an above average count. I share this with you just for something to file away in the back of your mind, and as we go through the next several months, let's see how this pans out. 

I am curious to see if the active weather pattern that has played out this winter will continue through our spring months. The West coast has been pummeled by serious snow and flooding rain from the relentless atmospheric river, so will that translate to more low-pressure systems coming this way? 

Thanks for spending a few minutes here.

Rainfall deficits - late March outlook

I know we are only 69 days into 2023, but the amounts of moisture that we've had so far have kept us on pace for "average" in the new year. We aren't experiencing any significant surpluses or deficits in one particular area, which is nice to see. That's what you'll see in the map below - the green represents areas that are above (like in northwest and northeast Kansas), while the light yellow shades represent areas below. 

HOWEVER - we all know that just because the calendar changes, the damage done by the lack of moisture last year doesn't just evaporate. I went and looked up the deficits for 2022 and then added in what moisture we've had in 2023. The large numbers in white represent our moisture compared to average for the last 14 months (and a handful of days). 

The updated drought map out Thursday (March 9) looks like this:

And if we look at the map from 6 months ago, this:

Even the heavier snows that have fallen in northwest Kansas haven't been enough to erase the ongoing drought. 

Late March outlook:

We haven't seen the last of snow in Kansas yet as the forecast continues to suggest there's a stretch of below average temperatures still to come for the Plains. It doesn't appear to be anything drastic or long-lasting, but when I look at this map, I'd be prepared for more days with highs in the 40s and 50s rather than a string of 60° weather.

Any chance of more rain coming soon? Here's a map for March 17-24, and while it does show some hope of something, I still wouldn't get my hopes up for a good soaking in western Kansas. Heaviest amounts will continue to miss us to the south and east, which has been a trend lately. That won't change in the next few weeks, even though we should continue to see a parade of storm systems tracking through this area. Just as a reminder, March is NOT (on average) one of our wetter months out of the year. If we get to the end of the month and we have just an inch or so of moisture, that's pretty typical for this time of year. Sure would be nice to start erasing this ongoing drought though.