A warmer Gulf of Mexico means what for storm season?

A popular question this time of year is "how bad will the storm season be"? Are we going to have an active tornado season? They are some difficult questions to answer with a high level of certainty, but we can point out some features to watch as the season is in its infancy. 

Warmer Gulf of Mexico:

Water temperatures appear to be about 1-2°C above average. I don't know if this is the warmest Gulf of Mexico we've had in recent years, but looking back on past data, it appears that the water (overall) has been warmer than average since 2015. See the maps for yourself:

However, a warmer Gulf of Mexico does not consistently lead to higher-than-average severe weather episodes. In fact, if you look back at 2020 when COVID was making all of the big headlines, severe weather wasn't much of a factor around the Plains. There were 17 tornadoes in Kansas, which set a record for the year. The graphic below shows you the variability that we have year to year. 

Right now, the number of tornadoes (across the country) is higher than average (260 reports / 160 is about average year-to-date). As you might expect, most of them have been in the south where severe weather season is already underway. I've lost count of how many severe weather episodes have happened in 2023, but it felt like it started early this year. 

Kansas has had its first bout with severe storms, and one tornado that skirted by the Liberal area on February 26 (rated an EF0)

So what does it mean when the season starts early?

Ultimately, we can't say conclusively what lies ahead (based on the fact we've already had some activity in Kansas), but in looking back at records since 2000, more times than not when we've already had a tornado this early in the season, we go on to have an above average count. I share this with you just for something to file away in the back of your mind, and as we go through the next several months, let's see how this pans out. 

I am curious to see if the active weather pattern that has played out this winter will continue through our spring months. The West coast has been pummeled by serious snow and flooding rain from the relentless atmospheric river, so will that translate to more low-pressure systems coming this way? 

Thanks for spending a few minutes here.