Here we go again - more severe weather chances

It's a frustrating spot to be in right now with so many powerful low-pressure systems racing by Kansas, leaving us with just trace amounts. It snowed Monday for most of the day in northwest Kansas, but after melting it all down, the moisture was barely a .10". Most of us will have a different idea of what a "good" rain is, but if we set the threshold at .50", here's the last time we saw those totals in a 24-hour time frame:

More severe weather is coming:

Another severe weather event is likely to unfold Friday with a large upper low kicking out of the West. California just dealt with another round of flooding rain and heavy, wet mountain snow. That same system is moving east and will provide another busy day of weather for areas EAST of Kansas (basically Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Illinois)

Upper-level winds are quite strong (above 120 mph) coming in from the southwest. That sets the stage for rotating storms that will produce some large hail and maybe a tornado or two.

The key here is that higher humidity gets pushed east of Kansas BEFORE the main western system gets in place, so the necessary ingredients don't come together in time for us to get the needed rain. Whatever we get Friday will form under the low itself, and it won't be much more than just trace amounts. Surprise surprise.

When will Kansas have another chance at some rain (that's more than a trace?) - We are watching Easter weekend. Another big upper low will form in the West and move this way. Details to come.

Are we having above average tornadoes this year?

The season is well underway, and the tornado count is up (compared to last year and compared to average). Kansas has only had two tornadoes in 2023, but leading the way is Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia with a combined 129 so far. There's nothing unusual about the tornado count for Kansas at this point in the season - tells us nothing really about how the remainder of the spring will go.

In late March, eastern Texas all the way to Alabama have the highest likelihood of severe storms (the areas shaded in darker red). It may not sound very high, but from any one point in the red shaded area, there's an 8% chance of severe weather (hail, wind, or tornadoes). 

Heading into April, more severe weather setups are coming. This isn't anything Earth-shattering, but if you look at the temperature anomalies for the first week of the month, the "cool" over "warm" is likely a recipe for more rough weather in the Plains states. 

However, if we look into the second full week of April, notice how the cool weather overspreads much of the Plains states? That should knock down the risk greatly heading into mid-month. 

Thanks for spending a few minutes here.