Rainfall deficits - late March outlook

I know we are only 69 days into 2023, but the amounts of moisture that we've had so far have kept us on pace for "average" in the new year. We aren't experiencing any significant surpluses or deficits in one particular area, which is nice to see. That's what you'll see in the map below - the green represents areas that are above (like in northwest and northeast Kansas), while the light yellow shades represent areas below. 

HOWEVER - we all know that just because the calendar changes, the damage done by the lack of moisture last year doesn't just evaporate. I went and looked up the deficits for 2022 and then added in what moisture we've had in 2023. The large numbers in white represent our moisture compared to average for the last 14 months (and a handful of days). 

The updated drought map out Thursday (March 9) looks like this:

And if we look at the map from 6 months ago, this:

Even the heavier snows that have fallen in northwest Kansas haven't been enough to erase the ongoing drought. 

Late March outlook:

We haven't seen the last of snow in Kansas yet as the forecast continues to suggest there's a stretch of below average temperatures still to come for the Plains. It doesn't appear to be anything drastic or long-lasting, but when I look at this map, I'd be prepared for more days with highs in the 40s and 50s rather than a string of 60° weather.

Any chance of more rain coming soon? Here's a map for March 17-24, and while it does show some hope of something, I still wouldn't get my hopes up for a good soaking in western Kansas. Heaviest amounts will continue to miss us to the south and east, which has been a trend lately. That won't change in the next few weeks, even though we should continue to see a parade of storm systems tracking through this area. Just as a reminder, March is NOT (on average) one of our wetter months out of the year. If we get to the end of the month and we have just an inch or so of moisture, that's pretty typical for this time of year. Sure would be nice to start erasing this ongoing drought though.