December outlook & daylight saving time revisited

Meteorological fall comes to a close and it's been an interesting ride over the last 3 months. Just some of the highlights (or lowlights - depending on where you are reading this from) include:

Most of the records mentioned above are all due to one large-scale system (post-Thanksgiving) that had ample moisture and just enough cold air.

December outlook:

By now you probably know or have heard that the beginning of the new month looks WARM. And I have a strong suspicion this is how December will turn out too (as a whole). Look what happens to the overall jet stream setup for the first week in December:

By forcing the jet that far north, our chances at moisture come to a halt and temperatures will soar for several days. It's not necessarily a record warm pattern, but most days will be warmer than one might expect for December. And it will be that way over much of the country. You'll see plenty of 50 and 60° days ahead.

In the second week of the month, look for the warmth to begin easing as cold fronts get stronger once again. The warmth will move east as more active weather comes into the western US. I just don't see Arctic air diving south on a large scale, but a cooler trend looks to be in the works just beyond the first week of December. The area blue from the Rockies west clearly highlights where the more widespread rounds of rain and snow will be shaping up as a persistent train of low pressure systems make their way into the West.

3rd week of December - most of the significant warmth has been removed, but still not overwhelmingly cold for the Plains states.

Don't expect much (if any) moisture for early December. The pattern coming up isn't helpful, but we do find ourselves getting back into an active setup as we move toward mid-December and beyond. This doesn't mean we are destined for a White Christmas, but a few things working in our favor include colder weather returning for Christmas and what should be a steady stream of active weather coming through the southern Plains at that time. I'd say the chances are better this year than in any given year, but getting everything to line up just right is tough.

Here's a 30 day snowfall map (I don't put much value in these, but they can be fun to look at if nothing else):

Finally - December moisture as a whole:

Look like a decent chance at having average to above average moisture (see the graphic at the top for what is "normal" rainfall & snow). As El Nino continues to provide opportunities for the southern storm track to remain juiced up, we have reason to remain optimistic about our precipitation chances.

Revisiting sunrise/sunset times & if we didn't change clocks:

Nobody talks about it this time of year because we are a month into the new time (Standard Time began back in early November). Since we are reaching the point where our sunset is as early as it gets during the year, and almost at the point where our sunrise is at its latest, what if we didn't change clocks? Bottom line, it would be very dark very late into the morning. We wouldn't have any daylight until well after 8am, with a sunrise not until 8:44am. We'd have more light in the evening, of course, but mornings would be dark. You just have to ask yourself where you'd prefer your extra daylight. Everyone has a different opinion on it and no matter what lawmakers decide, it won't please everyone - kinda like the weather, right?

Have a great day.

Weekend storm update - more active days to come

Hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday (or had a great holiday, depending on when you read this). There's so much to be grateful for, not the least of which was the most recent round of moisture. I know it's still a bit of a touchy subject given that some just haven't had any good rain at all. Take for example, Goodland. On track to have a top 10 driest falls on record:

Post-Thanksgiving storm:

This is not great for those getting on the roads, but for the farmer with acres of wheat that needs moisture, bring it on, right? What's been interesting is how locked in the computer models have been over the last several days. Sometimes we see significant variations from computer model to computer model, but with this go around, that hasn't been the case. In recent days, model trends have been:

• slightly colder
• higher moisture content
• slightly farther south storm track

None of the variations have really changed our overall thinking about how this will play out. All of this to say, we expect a statewide snow event. Given the temperatures, this will likely be a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. That means, if you were to get 10 inches of snow, you would expect about 1 inch of liquid moisture. Much of the state could be in the running for .30"-.50" (again this will be melted snow)

Wind - not a huge factor here. Look at western Kansas on Friday where the snow will be falling. Most should have wind speeds under 15. 

And then on Saturday, speeds are nothing to be concerned with:

The moisture content looks healthy but given how quickly it will plow through the region (probably 12 hours of snow), it should keep us from having a major snowstorm. Early thinking on accumulations (storm total, including Friday and Saturday amounts):

What's behind the winter system:

There's no Arctic air coming down into our immediate region, so expect the snow melt to start the next day. The month of November will end with seasonal temperatures (40s and 50s). What will be interesting to watch is just how active things might remain for several weeks to come. It's possible we may have a system trying to come through around Wed/Thu (Nov. 29/30) - so keep that in mind. 

If the system actually comes to reality, the expectation is it would be a rain maker and not one with snow or ice. 

Early December: If you look at the map below, that area of "blue" on the West coast suggests lower pressures. That would likely mean a series of systems would be coming off the Pacific and tracking east. It does NOT guarantee that we will have moisture coming to the Plains, but it does increase the odds a bit. Just as a reminder, some of our most productive weather makers track from southern California to the Plains (while they intercept Gulf of Mexico humidity). 

Some computer models suggest up to .50" of moisture for the central Plains, but maybe not much more. We will have to wait and see, but the overall pattern should remain busy in the coming weeks. 

Thanks for coming by for a few minutes. Have a great day.

Winter storms are changing - what? And active weather ahead

Someone asked me in the last week, "what's this I hear about winter storms changing". It took me a second to understand what they were referring to, but then it hit me they were referring to the National Weather Service adjusting the criteria for a "winter storm warning". Most weather consumers (even meteorologists to be quite transparent) don't fully know, or remember, what criteria is needed for an advisory or a warning. Typically, if a winter storm is expected to drop 6 inches of snow, a "warning" will be issued. If it's expected to be LESS than 6 inches, a winter weather advisory comes down for the particular area. 

However, effectively immediately, most of Kansas will fall into a winter storm warning if 5 inches (or more) of snow is expected. This is not a big change, really. It will be interesting to see if by lowering the snow criteria if we end up with more winter storm warnings, or the count remains the same. I find it interesting how winter storm warnings get issued for just an inch or two of snow in the deep South. I get it - they aren't accustomed to them. Just like wind chill advisories for Florida when the expected "feels like" drops to 35 or colder.  

November warmth:

Just passed the halfway point of the month and this has been a warm one to say the least. South central Kansas is on pace to have the 2nd warmest, while Dodge City and Goodland are in the running for warmest. However, we still have some time left to erase some of that warmth. 

Two systems to watch:

The first one coming in Sunday/Monday looks to have the potential of .50-1" of moisture. We know there will be areas that come up well shy of that, and some that might get more. It's the nature of the beast, but what we DO have going for us is a Gulf of Mexico connection. 

We haven't had that for awhile. Notice the white arrows coming right off the Gulf and headed right up into the Plains? That should hopefully prove quite helpful in bolster some of the rainfall amounts. Latest look at rainfall amounts shows many areas around .50"

An after-Thanksgiving system may develop too:

We don't know much about what kind of system this will turn out to be, but in full transparency, there is a possibility of some snow AND light ice coming this way AFTER the holiday. Models are developing snow across the Rockies and High Plains, but things like track, moisture, and intensity are quite fuzzy now. If you do plan travel on Friday or at all next weekend, you'll want to check back with us. This doesn't have the ear markings of a powerhouse storm system, but it might have the right combo of moisture and cold air to make travel more difficult.

What is certain is there will be a bunch of cold air filtering south late in the holiday week. We may find ourselves dealing with some of the coldest air of the season, but that's how we can even things out after a warm start to the month.

Early December:

Just glancing out into early December. I don't think we will have record cold, but it looks like the beginning of December is going to be a little colder than average. What would that mean for high temperatures? I would expect mainly 30s and 40s. I've even seen some maps suggesting that December (as a whole) will be chillier than normal.

Moisture outlook:

We'll see how this pans out, but an active weather pattern may continue right into the beginning of December as well. It's that time of year where you know how bad we need the moisture, but there's the chance it doesn't come in the form we want. Average precipitation for early December is generally under .50", but if we continue in a very progressive pattern (where one storm off the West coast follows another), we could be in for some interesting weather to start the new month.

More to come as we roll into Thanksgiving week.

Early thoughts on Thanksgiving week

Thanksgiving is drawing closer - I can already smell the turkey. It's probably my favorite holiday since the focus is on something we should practice every day. And then there's the food too. We'd all like to be thankful for some good, soaking rain that eases more of the ongoing drought. But will it happen before, during, or after Thanksgiving?

If you read our November outlook, we highlighted the fact that the first half of the month wasn't going to have much moisture. These dry stretches (without even a chance of moisture) have been painfully long, sometimes lasting nearly 45-60 days. They are going to have to get closer together if we are going to make any progress in erasing the damage this drought has done. 

In the 2nd week of November - the rain continues to be south. A nice low coming up from Mexico provides the southern Plains with nice moisture. They need it too, but it's tough getting left out. 

And it will be WARM! There is no sign of winter in much of the country. Several record highs will once again be threatened, especially across the northern tier of the US.

There will be a nice big trough (low pressure) developing across the western US in the weekend prior to the Thanksgiving week. Will this come at us in waves, or just one big system? We don't have a good answer to that yet, but my expectation is that we will have several waves coming through here. It could be quite active during the holiday week. 

Here's another consideration on the rainfall for Thanksgiving week. Much of Kansas has a 40-50% chance of getting at least .50" of moisture BEFORE the holiday. Some of you will say "that's not going to be enough to change anything" - I understand. However, it's more than some areas have had in nearly 40 days. We will update this as we get closer. 

While that might intimidate some of you planning holiday travel, it's doubtful there will be much cold air around, so A BIG WINTER STORM APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR KANSAS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

I expect a cooler stretch of weather in late November, but it doesn't look like it will be quite as cold as the surge we had in late October leading up to Halloween.

Have a great day. 

Ocean temperatures are still warm everywhere - El Nino update

As we move closer to the start of winter - still more than a month away - it's remarkable how warm ocean temperatures continue to be (relatively to average). Just look at this map of the eastern Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska. There's so much red all over the place, generally representing water temperatures that are about .6-1.5°C above average. 

Compare that to one year ago - colder than average water in the Gulf of Alaska and just off the California coast. 

There are a number of different oscillations we can look at when trying to determine longer range patterns. In reference to some of what we've displayed here, we call it the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and it goes back and forth between positive and negative. Right now, it's negative and that favors warm water in the north Pacific and cooler water off the coast of California. 

That also lines up with an El Nino that we've referenced here before too. The region that is watched for El Nino is along the equator in the Pacific. Here's what that looks like in recent weeks:

I bring this up because negative PDO phases and El Nino episodes don't collide very often. In fact, the last one that I found was 2006 (and even then, it was a weak El Nino and a weak PDO). It may not be a good measuring factor for help in unlocking this upcoming winter. The hardest part in trying to understand what this winter has in store is what does all of the very warm water mean for our precipitation chances. Right now, we are dealing with a moderately strong El Nino with a water temperature that is 1.6°C above average. 

We continue to watch and wait for a few more clues on the winter season, but this year (like so many others), it's a tough call, but we feel some optimism that more progress will be made in fighting back against ongoing drought. 

A few more updated November maps to consider:

Again, the first part of the month is basically a dud with no major systems tracking through here. The jet stream (winds around 18-20k feet) are very zonal - basically a straight west to east pattern. There are no large scale low pressure systems and therefore, our changes in weather should be quite minimal in the coming days. This isn't unusual, but when trying to fight drought, this isn't helpful. This flat weather pattern will persist for much of the first half of the month. 

Even though huge amounts of rain may not come at all this month, there's still reason to think the second half of the month will be more active. Models have consistently shown moisture happening around Thanksgiving, but I remind you that "average rainfall" in November still isn't that much. Even if we end up with above average precipitation, it may only translate to .50" or so - not enough to bring water levels up in ponds and lakes. 

Latest drought map released to start November - the headline here is there is NO "exceptional" drought any longer in Kansas. A stark improvement from 3 months ago, but still have a tremendous way to go in our drought fight. 

Have a great day.