Ocean temperatures are still warm everywhere - El Nino update

As we move closer to the start of winter - still more than a month away - it's remarkable how warm ocean temperatures continue to be (relatively to average). Just look at this map of the eastern Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska. There's so much red all over the place, generally representing water temperatures that are about .6-1.5°C above average. 

Compare that to one year ago - colder than average water in the Gulf of Alaska and just off the California coast. 

There are a number of different oscillations we can look at when trying to determine longer range patterns. In reference to some of what we've displayed here, we call it the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and it goes back and forth between positive and negative. Right now, it's negative and that favors warm water in the north Pacific and cooler water off the coast of California. 

That also lines up with an El Nino that we've referenced here before too. The region that is watched for El Nino is along the equator in the Pacific. Here's what that looks like in recent weeks:

I bring this up because negative PDO phases and El Nino episodes don't collide very often. In fact, the last one that I found was 2006 (and even then, it was a weak El Nino and a weak PDO). It may not be a good measuring factor for help in unlocking this upcoming winter. The hardest part in trying to understand what this winter has in store is what does all of the very warm water mean for our precipitation chances. Right now, we are dealing with a moderately strong El Nino with a water temperature that is 1.6°C above average. 

We continue to watch and wait for a few more clues on the winter season, but this year (like so many others), it's a tough call, but we feel some optimism that more progress will be made in fighting back against ongoing drought. 

A few more updated November maps to consider:

Again, the first part of the month is basically a dud with no major systems tracking through here. The jet stream (winds around 18-20k feet) are very zonal - basically a straight west to east pattern. There are no large scale low pressure systems and therefore, our changes in weather should be quite minimal in the coming days. This isn't unusual, but when trying to fight drought, this isn't helpful. This flat weather pattern will persist for much of the first half of the month. 

Even though huge amounts of rain may not come at all this month, there's still reason to think the second half of the month will be more active. Models have consistently shown moisture happening around Thanksgiving, but I remind you that "average rainfall" in November still isn't that much. Even if we end up with above average precipitation, it may only translate to .50" or so - not enough to bring water levels up in ponds and lakes. 

Latest drought map released to start November - the headline here is there is NO "exceptional" drought any longer in Kansas. A stark improvement from 3 months ago, but still have a tremendous way to go in our drought fight. 

Have a great day.