Meteorological winter ends, but March is just getting started

Before we get into discussing winter temperatures, I wanted to put up this image of the burn scar from Texas. On Tuesday, fires took off north of Amarillo and spread very quickly. What exacerbated the problem was the shift in winds as the cold front moved on through and gusts continued to be well above 40 mph. The area burned was larger than Rhode Island. See for yourself the image from more than 20,000 miles above the Earth. Our technology is quick to pick up on hot spots and assuming a clear sky, they can clearly show burn scars.

Sadly, there's more extreme fire danger ahead and we hope everyone will do their part.

Winter (at least from one standpoint) ends

The end of February is the end of meteorological winter, but if you've been keeping up with the blog, I don't think winter is completely done with us just yet. More about that in a second. Despite the big cold snap in mid-January, it wasn't nearly enough to overcome a top 10 warmest December and now, a top 10 warmest February. 

Here's how the three months combined look (it doesn't have Feb. 29th factored in just yet):

March "normals" look like this:

It's quite possible that March (as a whole) will be near or slightly cooler than average. Our forecast for February was a bust on the cold, but signs are once again pointing toward more cool/chilly weather ahead. 

The first week of the month might be one of the warmest weeks we'll have. 

Mid-February turns cooler - we do have to remember that the averages are climbing as the month wears on and it appears unlikely for any Arctic air to return. However, highs in the 30s and even low 40s wouldn't be that much of a stretch. 

Late February continues to look cool too:

Rain will be back!! I have talked with some farmers in the last few weeks that are quick to remind me that even though drought conditions have improved, farm ponds are still quite low in many areas. The same thing can be said for area lakes too. I fully expect that the jet stream will remain active with a series of systems continuing off the West coast. This is moving into our wet season (April - June), and the more rain we can get now, the better suited we'll be for summer.

First full week of March:

Second full week of March:

An active jet coming out of the west should continue to provide opportunities through much of the month. Will we have a big blizzard? Will there be an early introduction to severe weather season? March can have it all, but what we do see is a shift toward wetter weather. Here's what we have for the end of our first week in March:

Have a great day!

Winter isn't finished with us yet

February 2024 will be remembered for the incredible warmth that we had throughout the Plains states. Back in our early month forecast, we thought after Valentine's Day it would turn colder, and it did, but only for two days and then it was replaced by spring. Just days left and here's where the month is tracking in terms of warmest ones on record:

Record highs will be threatened for Monday/Tuesday (Feb. 26-27). 

How in the world does it get this warm in February? It's a combination of a large, high pressure ridge (see image below) - that's where the jet stream winds bend toward the north. Underneath, the air sinks and warms. 

You also have a west/southwest wind near the ground that is dry, and it warms quickly as it descends in elevation.

Winter isn't over, even though the worst is behind us:

Compare the following maps. The end of February and the first few days in March continue to look unusually warm. It just fits in with how things have been going all month long:

As we go into the first full week of March, the warmth begins to relax as some colder air begins sliding eastward. I believe this is a result of more active weather coming through the Plains. More clouds, more precipitation, etc. should result in more days with highs in the 30s and 40s - not necessarily Arctic air.

And finally as we pass into the second half of March and approach the official start of spring, more cooler than average weather showing up.

And March (as a whole) for precipitation looks wetter than average, which seems to make sense with the ongoing El Nino. I'm wondering if the wet/active weather we had in January is about to repeat in the upcoming 30-40 days. Seems fitting because most Kansans know that March can get a little wild with all kinds of different weather from beginning to end. 

Thanks for reading!

La Nina Watchout!

Effort to erase drought have been ongoing since last summer (which started in western Kansas), and then the rest of us started getting some beneficial moisture in fall and throughout the winter. If  you've been following along, we've contributed this mostly to the stronger El Nino that showed up last summer. Now, we are faced with an oncoming La Nina.

First, here's what the water temperatures look like in that critical area that is monitored for El Nino/La Nina:

Water temperatures are 1.7°C above the average, so we are still in the El Nino influence now, but water temperatures have started cooling.

Just see for yourself how things were looking in late September 2023:

And now most recently, this:

How quickly will El Nino end and La Nina begin? It might be faster than we really want it to be, and you'd have good reason to be concerned for heat and drought in the summer season IF La Nina was going to be back before summer started. I'm not sure that will be the case. See the chart below, and take note of how the red bars drop off and the blue bars begin growing. That is suggesting the strong likelihood of an oncoming La Nina, which could be firmly in place heading into fall. 

Quick look into March:

We've sorted missed the mark with our forecast of colder weather for mid-late February. Turns out, whatever cold weather was to be had was so brief that it wasn't even worth covering here. Lol. 

But we've been thinking spring season would be a wetter than average one, and that still shows up in the longer range maps. And I'm still not convinced winter is behind us yet. Most Kansans know that March is the wild card month that can have it all. We'll come back and cover March a bit more in depth soon, but here's an early look at what we are seeing:

Temperature - 

Precipitation - 

Thanks for reading!

Improving lake levels as we gear up for more winter

It's not the huge amount of rain that California has had in early February, but the rain we had in our first weekend of the month has helped improve lake levels - some. You can see the numbers below, but Cheney is still only 69% full (compared to conservation pool) and El Dorado is back up to 88% full. There's still plenty of room for more water in area lakes to say the least. 

Our second drought map in February shows improvement too:

Another round of winter weather should hit Saturday night/Sunday, but this is not going to be a major blizzard, nor will it be the biggest winter storm we've had this year. We've been watching the track of this system, which initially was over Kansas, then it was south of us, and now it has trended back over our area. The back-and-forth on the computer models has happened several times this winter, so we anticipated more snow would likely be coming this way.

This is how February has started:

And where we are going next:

There's still plenty more winter left as you look at the 32-day snowfall forecast for the country. Interesting how far south it depicts snow accumulation, but absolutely fitting with the active southern branch of the jet stream. 

We are less than 2 months from the Great American Solar Eclipse - April 8, 2024:

Of course, we don't know just how cloudy the sky will be when this celestial event takes place, but here's a map showcasing "average" cloud cover on April 8. Every year is different, we know that, but for planning purposes, it might be safer to choose a spot on the southern end of the track. Based on climatology, you are more likely to encounter overcast conditions the farther north that you go. 

And even more interesting (courtesy of NASA), with an El Nino influence on the overall pattern, there tends to be less cloud cover in April for the southern part of the country. Areas farther north don't see much change on overall cloudiness due to El Nino, but all it takes is one good storm system to spoil it all. 

Thanks for reading!

February rain, cold, and more snow

It's been quite a mild ride to wrap up our first month of the new year. Before we get into February stuff, did you see that Kansas is outpacing Minnesota (of all places) for snow this winter? You have to admit, that's a little crazy to think about:

February, on average, is not a very wet month for Kansas. In fact, it ranks in either 1st or 2nd place for driest months out of the year. See the stats below (and also take note of how much daylight we are gaining during the month - our sunset will soon be after 6pm)

Our first big system in the new month will do what not many systems do - a month's worth of rain all at once. In most months, that can spell trouble with major flooding, washed out roads, water in basements, etc. But since this is February and average are low anyway, we shouldn't see those problems on a large scale. And after all, there are MANY lakes and ponds out there that could still hold more water. 

Why will this be such a big rain event? The connection to the Gulf of Mexico is a huge factor, but you also have to consider the rain will extended over three days. The combo of a good moisture supply and a slow moving event. As much as we might be tired of fighting mud, this is what we need to erase more of the drought colors from the map. 

Winter isn't over!!

Just look at the Arctic Oscillation - a reminder that when its negative, there is a stronger tendency for higher pressures in the northern latitudes. That usually forces colder air to dive south into the US. In the chart below, note the GREEN line and how it remains negative all the way into early March. 

Here's what happens from Valentine's Day into late February:

And if you are still here reading along, this new map just came down Thursday morning. It showcases precipitation for February, March, and April (all lumped together in one map) - no big surprise. The wet winter spills over to spring, and I don't see the active, southern jet stream slowing down anytime soon. And this "above average moisture" will include more snow. If you weren't tired of winter yet, you probably will be come April. 

Have a great day!!