February rain, cold, and more snow

It's been quite a mild ride to wrap up our first month of the new year. Before we get into February stuff, did you see that Kansas is outpacing Minnesota (of all places) for snow this winter? You have to admit, that's a little crazy to think about:

February, on average, is not a very wet month for Kansas. In fact, it ranks in either 1st or 2nd place for driest months out of the year. See the stats below (and also take note of how much daylight we are gaining during the month - our sunset will soon be after 6pm)

Our first big system in the new month will do what not many systems do - a month's worth of rain all at once. In most months, that can spell trouble with major flooding, washed out roads, water in basements, etc. But since this is February and average are low anyway, we shouldn't see those problems on a large scale. And after all, there are MANY lakes and ponds out there that could still hold more water. 

Why will this be such a big rain event? The connection to the Gulf of Mexico is a huge factor, but you also have to consider the rain will extended over three days. The combo of a good moisture supply and a slow moving event. As much as we might be tired of fighting mud, this is what we need to erase more of the drought colors from the map. 

Winter isn't over!!

Just look at the Arctic Oscillation - a reminder that when its negative, there is a stronger tendency for higher pressures in the northern latitudes. That usually forces colder air to dive south into the US. In the chart below, note the GREEN line and how it remains negative all the way into early March. 

Here's what happens from Valentine's Day into late February:

And if you are still here reading along, this new map just came down Thursday morning. It showcases precipitation for February, March, and April (all lumped together in one map) - no big surprise. The wet winter spills over to spring, and I don't see the active, southern jet stream slowing down anytime soon. And this "above average moisture" will include more snow. If you weren't tired of winter yet, you probably will be come April. 

Have a great day!!