What does a collapsing El Nino mean for May?

It's been scattered over national news outlets, and we've covered it here several times too, but El Nino is almost 100% dead! Latest measurements are showing water temperatures now are just .8°C above the average (near the equator in the Pacific - basically south of Hawaii)

When you look at current satellite measurements, it's clear to see the blue colors (representing the colder water) that is gathering along the equator. What is labeled as "developing La Nina" is spreading westward into the green box south of Hawaii. (The green box is the area monitored to determine La Nina or El Nino). 

How long is the La Nina going to last?

I think it's becoming clearer that it will be a factor for almost a year. Most modeling shows "cooler" than average water along the equator through at least March, and then weakening. See for yourself:

We cringe going into summer with a strong La Nina - it almost always means heat and drought! Be prepared. This upcoming La Nina may not be considered "strong", but you have to think it will be a big influence in a drier than average summer. It could be another frustrating year for crop production in Kansas. 

I can't imagine that the month of May is going to be much different than what we've come to expect as of late. One model suggestion (European) keeps the western half of Kansas "near to drier" than average. It doesn't mean there will be 0 rainfall - rather it means amounts will be lower than what is typically expected in the month (which in western Kansas is around 3" of rain). Central Kansas rainfall (for a May average) is around 5".

If you want to see another map (from an American model - GFS), here's what it looks like for May:

I hope I'm wrong. Most of the predictions for a wet spring have been far off the mark. It hasn't turned out like we had hoped, and the finger pointing is right at the oncoming La Nina. Models can really struggle in these transition phases.

May averages:

Thanks for reading - I know it's not the news most of you were hoping for, but we'll keep looking for the rain!

The next 30 days are crucial

By now, most of you have probably seen the latest drought map and it's not what we want to see, but we also aren't totally surprised. We are now at 97% of Kansas back in some level of drought, with 7% in "severe" or D2 level (the scale goes up to "D4" or "exceptional")

Here's the map just released on Thursday:

The next 30 days will be absolutely crucial. Some farmers may say it's already too late, or maybe the next two weeks are most crucial for a "make-or-break" on this year's wheat crop. I'm not the expert in that, but the reason I'm pointing to the next 30 days is because after that, most longer-range models go to "drier than normal" heading into June. I'll show the maps in just a second. 

Keep an eye on the setup for April 25-28 - we are keying in on another system coming from California and into the 4 Corners region. In full disclosure, we've had these setups before, and they have failed us miserably. But the alternative is a completely different weather pattern where the upper level winds come out of the northwest OR a ridge of high pressure right over the Plains, which in both cases we wouldn't get any rain chance at all. 

Models bring in the higher Gulf of Mexico moisture starting Wednesday, but it might be even more pronounced by Thursday/Friday (April 25/26) We know there will be a connection to the Gulf of Mexico, so that's at least a start. This will also likely mark our next chances for severe storms (on a larger scale) in the Plains.

It's serious now. This is the time of year we expect to get our rains, and if we aren't getting moisture in April and May, we could be in trouble for a very hot/dry summer. 

Here's the rainfall map (compared to average) for the first 7 days in May - it's at least encouraging. I know we have seen these maps before and they haven't worked out. It is really frustrating, so I'm not upset if you don't want to believe a thing that you see below. It's just some of what we are looking at behind the scenes. 

It may already be dry again by the end of May. This is why I think we have to hope that early to mid-May has rain for Kansas. 

Latest tornado count:

The 3rd full week of April proved to have some active weather across the country. Kansas started it off with some active weather Monday night (April 15/16), and then we had a significant number of storms shortly after. What is a little surprising is who is leading the way with the tornado count in 2024 - OHIO! Of all places, Ohio and Illinois have had twice as many as we've had in Kansas and only equals about what we've had in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas combined. 

Overall, the US is not necessarily running away with the tornado count this year. With just over 300 so far, that is basically on pace for average at this point in the spring season. 

Severe weather setup for Monday - rainfall outlook

We haven't had many severe weather events this spring in Kansas. That is a "good news/bad news" situation because the good news - less destruction and headache, but bad news because we haven't been getting good rains either. 

Here's a recap on rains since the beginning of February, which was about the time the moisture started winding down for many areas. 

Your immediate area might be a tad different, but it is a safe assumption that Kansas is running about 1.50 - 3" below normal on rainfall since February 1st, and this trend can't continue, or we will get fried this summer.

Monday severe weather setup:

This will be one to watch as there are several key factors coming together. First, we need humidity! That has been severely lacking with any low pressure system that comes across the Plains. It's what hurt us last weekend (Saturday, April 6) when the humidity wasn't available (dew points were only in the low 50s). This Monday system will have dew points in the 60s - which still doesn't guarantee anything, but it increases our odds of rain/storms.

At roughly 15,000-20,000 feet off the ground, you have some stronger winds pushing in from the 4 Corners, and that can help to strengthen storms too. 

Finally, energy! Most of our computer models suggest enough of it to get the storms rolling & keep them going into Monday night. This too has been severely lacking with recent setups in the Plains. 

All of this to say that we could be looking at hail, wind, and a few tornadoes Monday, so please stick with us.

Rainfall for late April:

It's not overly encouraging. Maybe if we don't get our hopes to high, we'll get some rain. I've posted several maps previously that just haven't worked out. We thought March might have more moisture and that busted. April, so far, hasn't been overly helpful and I'm not sure the next 2 weeks will be that great either. The map below suggests near "normal" rainfall, but that would only be about .50-.75" and not very helpful in getting water replenished in lakes and ponds.

30 Day Rainfall for May:

What tends to be one of the wetter months of the year - May! In one of my earlier blog posts, I mentioned that El Nino springs tend to be wet. Last time we had an El Nino influence in May, we had a huge surplus of rain. I'm reluctant to think that will come around again, but even average rain would be welcome. This is our time of year to get the moisture - if we go into summer with dry ground, the likelihood of frying in summer heat dramatically increases. We don't want a repeat of 2011 or 2012.

Thanks for reading! Have a great day

Eclipse forecast & Kansas tornado numbers so far

April and May tend to be the most active months of the year for tornadoes in Kansas, so we are still very much at the beginning of the season. Numbers this early are considered "preliminary", but our count is up to 9 with the strongest being rated an EF-2 (which happened near Alta Vista back in early March)

How does that compare to recent years? Since 2000, here's what we have:

That would make 2024 the 7th busiest start since 2000 (with respect to tornadoes only).

We've said before that this does not give any clear signal to how the rest of the season will go. Some years start extremely quiet, but then suddenly explode just weeks later. Other times, very active starts go dormant in just a matter of days. 

We are up against another chance for some severe storms on Saturday (April 6th) with a big low emerging from the western part of the US. There are several factors that we look at when making predictions for severe weather, but one limiting ingredient might be the overall amount of humidity that we have to work with. 

Upper-level winds (shown below) coming in from the southwest are quite strong (generally 80-100 mph), which can set the stage for some rotating storms. It doesn't necessarily mean our tornado threat will be anything to get overly concerned about, but it can help to bump up the hail threat as storms develop. At the ground, the wind will likely be out of the south or southeast, and some of the gusts will be 40-50+.

Unless there is some drastic change in the setup, storms will fire up around 5/6pm and race to the east and northeast. Given how fast storms will move, it will more than likely limit just how much rain can be squeezed out of this setup.

Saturday severe weather outlook should be east of a Russell to Pratt line, and timing will more than likely be after 4/5pm:

The Great American Solar Eclipse:

The forecast is actually looking pretty decent. There will be some higher clouds passing across the central and southern Plains, but this particular kind of overcast will be of the higher, thin variety which should not completely block our view of the sun. The kind of clouds we don't want are the stratus (low level), or even thick mid-level clouds. I don't think we will see that kind of overcast in Kansas or for areas just south of us in the path of totality.